[Rhodes22-list] Politics -- Terrorism Betting Parlor

[Michael Meltzer]

http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/6/32024.html


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Michael Meltzer" <mjm at michaelmeltzer.com>
To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
Sent: Tuesday, July 29, 2003 11:29 AM
Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Politics -- Terrorism Betting Parlor


> it game theory at it best, think of it more as the collective wisdom of the masses.
>
> MJM
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Bill Effros" <bill at effros.com>
> To: ""R-22"" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> Sent: Tuesday, July 29, 2003 9:07 AM
> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Politics -- Terrorism Betting Parlor
>
>
> It seems this is not a hoax.
>
> It seems this is financed by our government.
>
> The idea seems to be that we can improve our intelligence by monitoring how people will bet on actual events they think may
happen.
>
> It works like the game of "Clue".  If you think Osama will strike in Pakistan with a truck bomb, you bet on scenario A.  If you
> think Saddam will strike in Iraq using a rocket propelled grenade, you bet on scenario B.  And so on.
>
> The bets initially cost a nickel, but if other players agree the outcome is likely, they can bid up the price of a scenario.  If
the
> event happens, the holder of the scenario gets a dollar.  The defense department will be watching to see where people put their
> money.
>
> Players remain anonymous.  Terrorists are encouraged to play.  It is hoped they will bet on things they know will happen and tip
us
> off.  (It is also hoped they will not bet against things they know will happen to throw us off.)
>
> Take a look.
>
> http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/
>
> Bill Effros
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