[Rhodes22-list] Nuclear Energy

[Bill Effros]

Roger,

Of course I wonder why they want it.

But that's not the point.

You and others argued for the continued development of Nuclear Energy.  
That carries with it the development of nuclear energy by other 
countries, as well as us--meaning that everyone will figure out how to 
pack that energy into very small packages that can be exported at will.  
Pakistan, a Muslim military dictatorship, has amply demonstrated this 
capability by exporting bomb technology all over the world.

The President of the United States claims our Social Security system is 
in crisis because it will be underfunded in 75 years.  If we can look 75 
years ahead, and plan for the future, why can't Iran or any other 
country do the same thing?

World problems are complex, and they are not solved by simplistic 
thinking.  I can make a case for Nuclear Energy, however any case for 
nuclear energy must address the fact that everyone who learns that 
technology will inevitably also learn how to create devastating weapons 
using the same knowledge.

Nuclear weapons are one of the small number of genies that can be put 
back into the bottle.  The whole world knew that Iraq didn't have 
them--only the President of the United States claimed to have better 
information than everyone else, justifying his invasion, at a time when 
weapons inspectors on the ground said unequivocally that Iraq did not 
currently possess nuclear weapons.

Nuclear power plants can mask the presence of nuclear weapons.  That's 
why Iran wants them.  You can't say that we should switch to nuclear 
energy, but at the same time we should prevent everyone else from doing 
the same thing.  Either nobody gets them, or everybody gets them.

When push comes to shove, I think I fall on the side of nobody gets 
them.  We should work to develop other means to harness energy.  While 
we may run out of oil, the current model of the universe predicts that 
we will always have more energy than we can safely use.  Certainly we 
won't have to worry about that for the next couple of billion years.

So where do you fall?  Is nuclear energy too dangerous, or isn't it?  Is 
it OK for Iran to have nuclear power plants, or not?  You can't have it 
both ways, and people like you are the people who will decide how this 
goes.  If you say the engineering equivalent of "Damn the 
torpedoes--full speed ahead!" this world will be awash with nuclear 
weapons.  If you say "We've got to do better!" you and others like you 
can work to find energy sources that don't have the dangers attendant to 
nuclear energy.

In a serious discussion of the matter, I don't see how you can take one 
position with regard to "us" and a different position with regard to "them".

Bill Effros


Roger Pihlaja wrote:

>Bill,
>
>You have to wonder why they want it.  Iran is sitting on proven reserves of
>about 1 trillion barrels of crude oil as well as copious quantities of
>natural gas.  The country has excellent warm water, ice-free port facilities
>to ship their crude oil and natural gas.  They have a pretty good
>intra-country pipeline and refinery infrastructure.  They have zero reserves
>of uranium.  At the present rate of energy production & given Iran's current
>population, GDP, & growth rate, their proven fossil fuel reserves will
>supply all their internal energy and export needs for the next 50-75 years,
>even if the country gets heavily into manufacturing petrochemicals like
>polyethylene, polypropylene, nylon, etc.  That's enough time to build and
>use up at least 1 generation of nuclear power plants before they are even
>necessary.
>
>Gee, do you think maybe, just maybe, Iran has an alternate agenda here?
>
>Roger Pihlaja
>S/V Dynamic Equilibrium
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Bill Effros" <bill at effros.com>
>To: "R22 List" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>Sent: Friday, February 18, 2005 1:52 PM
>Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Nucular Energy
>
>
>  
>
>>Been meaning to ask.
>>
>>How 'bout that Iran?
>>
>>Do they get to have nuclear energy, too?
>>
>>Or is it only safe enough for us?
>>
>>Bill Effros
>>__________________________________________________
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>>
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