[Rhodes22-list] Baffle them with Bullshit
Brad Haslett
flybrad at gmail.com
Wed Jul 5 17:59:44 EDT 2006
Bill,
The first thing everyone who studies the oil business learns is that no one
knows how big any one companies or any one country's oil reserves are. The
American oil companies have an edge at estimating reserves because of
technology, and, they are held to higher reporting standards. The Saudi's
have raised their estimated reserves several times in the last decade
without a corresponding rate of new discovery. No one can be certain how
much oil is even shipped from the Persian Gulf. There is no requirement to
report and OPEC is known for lying to their member partners to cheat their
own quota system. This may be hard to believe but true, there are a couple
of companies that sell data to oil traders on their estimates of shipments
from the Persian Gulf. Their method is to spot tankers leaving the docks
and estimate the load based on the length and water draw of the boat. That
is best data available. It is that crude, pun intended.
You will find numbers quoted in industry publications of anywhere from a low
or 20% to 60% of the world's supply that pass through the Straight of
Hormuz. Estimates of the remaining Gulf countries reserves as a percentage
of the total vary as well, but few estimate it to be less than 50%. The
standard is around 60% to 70%. This much is known, 80% to 90% pas through
the Straight of Hormuz because that is the shortest shipping route. If you
take the low estimate of reserves 60% and multiply it by the low estimate of
ship routes 80% you get 48%.
Lets be optismistic and use the DOE 2004 numbers. Take 27% of the world's
supply and multiply it by the low ship route number and you get 22%. That
is well below most estimates. However, let's work with that number.
The oil market spikes on a shortfall of as little as 1 or 2 percent. One
strategically sunk tanker in the Straight could shut off shipping for
months. It won't matter whether the loss was as little as 5%, the oil
markets would go soaring.
This is not lost on the Iranians who have an axe to grind. They have
already said they think oil is too cheap. They have already threatned to
cut of the Straight. They want a nuclear reactor but are awash in oil. Did I
mention that their leaders are crazy?
We can disagree on what all this means to geopolitics. Fine.
I'm not going to argue the current economic situation with you. It's
beneath my dignity and education. Believe what you want Bill. I hope for
my kids sake, and yours, that your utopian version of the world is right and
I'm wrong.
Brad
On 7/5/06, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
> Brad,
>
> You repeatedly cite sources you apparently don't read.
>
> You said
>
> "The choke point for the world oil market is the Hormuz Strait. Half of
> the worlds oil supply must pass this point..."
>
> The source you cite says, in the summary at the top "/In 2003, the
> Persian Gulf countries (Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi
> Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) produced about 27% of the world's
> oil" /I'm sure if either one of us reads on, we will discover that not
> 100% of the Persian gulf oil goes through the Straits of Hormuz.
>
> I trust I don't have to help you too much with the math, but if they
> only produce 27% of the world's oil, it is not possible for them to ship
> 50% of the world's oil through the straits even if they don't put
> anything through pipelines or use any oil domestically.
>
> That does not mean that I think the Straits of Hormuz are not important.
>
> It does mean that if we continue to make decisions based on this kind of
> sloppy work we should not be surprised to see the rest of the world eat
> our lunch.
>
> Bill Effros
>
> Brad Haslett wrote:
> > Bill,
> >
> > I do have time to fact check what I write. Here's your sign!
> >
> > http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/pgulf.html
> >
> > I'm leaving for work but will happily provide you with all the
> > evidence you want to support what I write when I return. While your
> > down there with your head in the sand, look around for some reality
> > pills and perhaps some tranqilizers before YOU hit the send button.
> >
> > Brad
> >
> >
> > On 7/5/06, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
> >> Brad,
> >>
> >> Will you PLEASE stop making stuff up!
> >>
> >> I don't have time to fact-check everything you write, and you obviously
> >> have more free time than almost any other working person, so I'm asking
> >> as nicely as possible for you to fact-check your own stuff before
> >> hitting the "Send" button.
> >>
> >> Maybe, just maybe, cutting taxes for the rich at the same time you are
> >> conducting a war using "Emergency" off-budget appropriations has
> >> SOMETHING to do with inflation.
> >>
> >> Half the world's oil supply does not go through the Straits of Hormuz.
> >>
> >> Try to think about it a little more before attempting to scare the
world
> >> into agreeing with positions based on emotions and fudged facts.
> >>
> >> Thank you,
> >>
> >> Your Friend,
> >>
> >> Bill Effros
> >>
> >> Brad Haslett wrote:
> >> > Wally,
> >> >
> >> > Actually "they" have threatened to shut off oil production several
> >> > times. The most recent example was Iran a few weeks ago. You are
> >> > correct, they need the oil money as much as we need the oil, but that
> >> > is rational thinking. Iran, for example, is not led by rational
> >> > thinking men. Depending on what economist you want to listen to, we
> >> > can withstand an average energy price increase of around 10% per year
> >> > before it starts to disrupt markets. We are on the edge of an
> >> > inflationary period as we speak, largely due to the run-up in energy
> >> > prices, and also to some extent the result of a growing economy. The
> >> > choke point for the world oil market is the Hormuz Strait. Half of
> >> > the worlds oil supply must pass this point and any disruption, even
> >> > for a few days, would send prices skyrocketing. Who benefits from
> >> > high oil prices? The same folks who have the oil. All of the US Big
> >> > Oil companies account for about 15% of total production. We have the
> >> > strategic reserve, but that will be held off the market to fuel the
> >> > military response. Try not to think about it too much. It get's very
> >> > scary.
> >> >
> >> > Brad
> >> >
> >> > On 7/5/06, TN Rhodey <tnrhodey at hotmail.com> wrote:
> >> >> Philip,
> >> >>
> >> >> Who has threatened to shut off oil production? They can't shut us
off
> >> >> from
> >> >> oil, they need to sell oil to make money. Let's face it the price of
> >> >> oil has
> >> >> jumped and we are not in dire straits.
> >> >>
> >> >> Wally
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> >From: "3drecon" <3drecon at comcast.net>
> >> >> >Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> >> >> >To: "'The Rhodes 22 mail list'" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> >> >> >Subject: RE: [Rhodes22-list] Baffle them with Bullshit
> >> >> >Date: Wed, 5 Jul 2006 01:54:01 -0400
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Bill,
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Your George Soros, Nancy Pelosi Talking Points are showing
> >> >> again. Nazi
> >> >> >Germany: I could go on for hours. Suffice it to say, it was a
> >> >> house of
> >> >> >cards. They never had the resources, the oil, the population, the
> >> >> >production capacity. . . not to mention the political and military
> >> >> >mis-steps. If the western response had been more firm and sure
(ala
> >> >> >Churchill) Hitler wouldn't have gotten as far as he did.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Not all resources are oil. Choke ours off and see what
> >> >> happens. Choke
> >> >> >off the liberal's beloved EU and see what happens. We use oil. We
> >> >> need
> >> >> >oil
> >> >> >and we have to keep the commerce in that region open, or should we
> >> >> let the
> >> >> >despots close down the mid-east oil traffic?
> >> >> >
> >> >> > We launched a few cruise missiles alright. Too little, too
> >> >> late under
> >> >> >Saint Clinton. Let's see what the "religion of peace" had brought
> >> >> us. The
> >> >> >first Twin Tower bombing. The attack on our embassy in
Africa. The
> >> >> Khobar
> >> >> >Towers bombing. And the Cole which was under Clinton's Watch
> >> (October
> >> >> >2000). Not to mention Somalia which Bin Laden said was what
> >> >> convinced him
> >> >> >we would not respond to an attack on us since after Clinton
expanded
> >> >> the
> >> >> >mission, he cut and ran after the attack on our Rangers (after Les
> >> >> Aspin
> >> >> >refused the commanders on the ground armored vehicles).
> >> >> >
> >> >> > I suppose you will tell me that we don't need oil as part of
> >> our
> >> >> >national security plan? What has Rome to do with it? How many
747s
> >> >> did
> >> >> >Rome have? Cars? Trucks? Trains? Etc. I guess we'll defend our
> >> >> country
> >> >> >with bronze swords and wood shields? What does Rome command to-day
> >> >> >(besides
> >> >> >Catholics)?
> >> >> >
> >> >> > When we are culturally sensative against an enemy that is
> >> neither
> >> >> >culturally sensative nor morally sensitive and it causes our
> >> >> soldiers to
> >> >> >die
> >> >> >when they otherwise wouldn't, I don't make the distinction.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > I think perhaps it's time for you to stop shovelling it out.
> >> And I
> >> >> >haven't once gotten a "free pass" for old time or any other sake.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Philip
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >-----Original Message-----
> >> >> >From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
> >> >> >[mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org]On Behalf Of Bill Effros
> >> >> >Sent: Tuesday, July 04, 2006 10:27 AM
> >> >> >To: The Rhodes 22 mail list
> >> >> >Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Baffle them with Bullshit
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Philip,
> >> >> >
> >> >> >So nice to have your political claptrap back on the list. It's so
> >> >> >scattershot, it's hard to know where to start. You like to string
> >> >> >together a bunch of non sequiteurs which you seem to believe will
> >> bring
> >> >> >any reader to your point of view. For me, it's just "If you can't
> >> >> >convince them with logic, baffle them with bullshit."
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Where to start? Where to start? History doesn't prove that might
> >> makes
> >> >> >right. Nazi Germany?
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Oil is a resource, but not all resources are oil.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >We didn't fly airplanes into Arab buildings, we flew cruise
missiles
> >> >> >into Arab buildings.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Yes, we do blow ourselves up around women and children, only we
> >> call it
> >> >> >"collateral damage".
> >> >> >
> >> >> >"We need one to have the other?" What does that mean? Ancient
Rome
> >> >> >didn't have oil -- still doesn't have it, today -- but they sure
had
> >> >> >National Security.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >"Culturally sensitive" has a different meaning from "morally
> >> >> sensitive".
> >> >> >
> >> >> >What baffles our friends and delights our enemies are people who
> >> can't
> >> >> >see the difference.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Knowing when to act...When Clinton attacked Bin Laden, Republicans
> >> >> >started the "Wag the Dog" mantra. Who were you quoting then?
> >> >> >
> >> >> >What was Bush's response to the Cole attack?
> >> >> >
> >> >> >And just exactly when did Bin Laden say what he based his
> >> decision to
> >> >> >attack us on?
> >> >> >
> >> >> >You've gotten a free pass on a few go-rounds of this stuff for old
> >> >> >times' sake, but the days of shooting from the hip are over.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Bill Effros
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >3drecon wrote:
> >> >> > > Wally,
> >> >> > > I don't separate Oil (i.e. resources) from National
> >> >> Security. We
> >> >> >need
> >> >> > > one to have the other; otherwise, we are at the mercy of
> >> anyone else
> >> >> >with
> >> >> > > resources. We did not fly into Arab buildings. They flew into
> >> >> ours.
> >> >> >We
> >> >> > > didn't invade Kuwait, Iraq did. We don't blow ourselves up
> >> >> around women
> >> >> >and
> >> >> > > children. As a matter of fact, we willingly hamstring
> >> ourselves and
> >> >> >cost
> >> >> > > our young men and women their lives as a result to be
"culturally
> >> >> > > sensitive". This baffles our friends there and delights our
> >> >> enemies.
> >> >> >To
> >> >> >a
> >> >> > > certain extent, might makes right, as you put it. History
proves
> >> >> that.
> >> >> > > Knowing when to act and how is the trick. I agree with the
> >> >> strategy,
> >> >> >though
> >> >> > > I may differ with the specific targets at the time. We spent
too
> >> >> many
> >> >> >years
> >> >> > > apologising and letting the radicals have their way. Bin Laden
> >> >> said he
> >> >> > > based his decision to attack us on our response (or lack
> >> thereof) to
> >> >> > > previous attacks.
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > Philip
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > -----Original Message-----
> >> >> > > From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
> >> >> > > [mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org]On Behalf Of TN
Rhodey
> >> >> > > Sent: Saturday, July 01, 2006 7:44 AM
> >> >> > > To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
> >> >> > > Subject: RE: [Rhodes22-list] Reply to Frone Crawford
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > Philip,
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > I guess you are a proponent of the old might makes right theory?
> >> >> I used
> >> >> > > that theory on my little brother and it worked out real well. I
> >> >> always
> >> >> >got
> >> >> > > the big piece of cake. I am not sure if this is the best
strategy
> >> >> for
> >> >> > > diplomatic relations. Should we not shoot for a higher standard?
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > You ask what better reason then oil? We should go to war when
our
> >> >> >National
> >> >> > > Security is threatened.
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > Wally
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >> From: "3drecon" <3drecon at comcast.net>
> >> >> > >> Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> >> >> > >> To: "'The Rhodes 22 mail list'" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> >> >> > >> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Reply to Frone Crawford
> >> >> > >> Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2006 15:25:48 -0400
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >> Frone
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >> I didn't say I was comfortable with the Republicans, I said
they
> >> >> are
> >> >> >closer
> >> >> > >> to the Libertarian philosophy than any other "electable" party
> >> >> to-day.
> >> >> >I
> >> >> > >> assume you allude to the Patriot Act in the "incessant drive by
> >> >> the
> >> >> > >> Republicans to limit personal rights and invade our private
acts
> >> >> and
> >> >> > >> thoughts" as well as the moral chest pounding. I am opposed
> >> to the
> >> >> >Patriot
> >> >> > >> Act. I think it will be/has been abused just as the RICO act
> >> >> was and
> >> >> >is
> >> >> > >> abused. I don't agree with the moral grand-standing any more
> >> >> than I
> >> >> >agree
> >> >> > >> with the liberals banning "hate" speech, becoming
anti-religious
> >> >> and
> >> >> > >> forcing
> >> >> > >> the Bill of Rights on the States, contrary to the Founders
> >> >> intent. I
> >> >> >also
> >> >> > >> don't see a conspiricy in "a propaganda machine leading us to
> >> >> >pre-emptive
> >> >> > >> war, welfare for the agri / timber / oil companies, selling
off
> >> >> our
> >> >> > >> resources to pay the unconscionable deficits". The real
problem
> >> >> with
> >> >> >oil
> >> >> > >> is
> >> >> > >> the restriction on drilling, exploration and refineries;
simply,
> >> >> supply
> >> >> >and
> >> >> > >> demand. I don't know what you mean about the "agri/timber
> >> >> issues, but
> >> >> >if
> >> >> > >> that's what it takes to make our country prosperous, then that
> >> >> is what
> >> >> >we
> >> >> > >> should do. A poor person never gave me a job (wealthy and
> >> >> corporations
> >> >> >did
> >> >> > >> (and government). I will say here that I do one of the few
> >> >> legitimate
> >> >> > >> government tasks. . . defense (and as a civilian,
> >> >> declassification). I
> >> >> > >> assume by your comment about oil, you believe we "went to war
> >> >> for oil".
> >> >> >If
> >> >> > >> so, what better reason besides retaliation? Oil is in the
> >> national
> >> >> > >> interest. If we can secure international oil routes and
> >> >> supplies by
> >> >> >going
> >> >> > >> to war, so what? Liberals like to say we should go to war in
> >> >> Zambia,
> >> >> >or
> >> >> > >> Zimbabwe or elsewhere in the African continent. If not for
> >> precious
> >> >> >metals,
> >> >> > >> oil or resources, why? If it is not in our national
> >> interest, why?
> >> >> >What
> >> >> > >> the hell were we doing in Serbia? That is a European created
> >> >> problem
> >> >> >and
> >> >> > >> they should police it. We have no national interest there.
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >> Philip
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> > >> From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
> >> >> > >> [mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org]On Behalf Of
> >> >> > >> FCrawford0707 at aol.com
> >> >> > >> Sent: Friday, June 30, 2006 10:46 AM
> >> >> > >> To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
> >> >> > >> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] To DAVE about Virginia and in
reply
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >> In a message dated 6/30/2006 8:47:51 A.M. Eastern Daylight
Time,
> >> >> > >> 3drecon at comcast.net writes:
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >> Frankly, I see the Democrats relying on Big Government and
> >> >> growing it;
> >> >> > >> however, having said that, the Republicans, in recent years
have
> >> >> >changed
> >> >> > >> course to
> >> >> > >> appease the liberals (who will not vote for them, no matter
> >> >> what) and
> >> >> >have
> >> >> > >> their own brand of government growth. I am
a Libertarian. The
> >> >> > >> Republicans
> >> >> > >> are the only electable party that come closest to that
> >> >> philiosophy for
> >> >> > >> now,
> >> >> > >> so
> >> >> > >> I identify with them. The interesting thing is the Founding
> >> >> Fathers
> >> >> >would
> >> >> > >> have been considered liberals!
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >> Philip - I am interested in your conclusion that as a
> >> >> Libertarian, you
> >> >> >are
> >> >> > >> somehow comfortable with the Republicans. I find the incessant
> >> >> drive
> >> >> >by
> >> >> > >> the
> >> >> > >> Republicans to limit personal rights and invade our private
acts
> >> >> and
> >> >> > >> thoughts
> >> >> > >> to be at odds with my own Libertarian leanings. The abuse of
> >> >> power by
> >> >> >the
> >> >> > >> present administration is frightening - a propaganda machine
> >> >> leading
> >> >> >us
> >> >> >to
> >> >> > >> pre-emptive war, welfare for the agri / timber / oil companies,
> >> >> >selling
> >> >> > >> off
> >> >> > >> our
> >> >> > >> resources to pay the unconscionable deficits, not to mention
the
> >> >> > >> corruption
> >> >> > >> and incompetence. I am not a strict Libertarian, in that I
> >> >> feel there
> >> >> >are
> >> >> > >> roles best filled by government - for example, dredging and
> >> >> >maintaining
> >> >> > >> the
> >> >> > >> ICW.
> >> >> > >> There was a great idea thirty years ago that, if followed,
> >> would
> >> >> >perhaps
> >> >> > >> have put our society in a happier and less contentious frame
> >> >> than we
> >> >> >are
> >> >> > >> going
> >> >> > >> thru now - that of the negative income tax, in place of all
the
> >> >> myriad
> >> >> >of
> >> >> > >> government administered support programs that don't really
> >> >> serve the
> >> >> > >> constituency
> >> >> > >> intended, and which produce a whole lot of waste. With a
> >> negative
> >> >> >income
> >> >> > >> tax, the neediest are supported without the cost and waste of
> >> >> >bureaucratic
> >> >> > >> infrastructure. No one makes out better financially by not
> >> >> working,
> >> >> >so
> >> >> > >> the
> >> >> > >> "welfare syndrome" is not present.
> >> >> > >> Frone Crawford
> >> >> > >> s/v Sunday Morning
> >> >> > >> __________________________________________________
> >> >> > >> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >> __________________________________________________
> >> >> > >> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> > >>
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > __________________________________________________
> >> >> > > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > __________________________________________________
> >> >> > > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> >__________________________________________________
> >> >> >Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> >
> >> >> >__________________________________________________
> >> >> >Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> __________________________________________________
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> >> >>
> >> > __________________________________________________
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> >> >
> >> __________________________________________________
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> >>
> > __________________________________________________
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> >
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