[Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling

[Brad Haslett]

Hank,

You found the problem!  It just doesn't add up to buy a hybrid, and, they're
not as environmentally friendly as people think.  Where do you dispose of
the old battery?  Most batteries are recycled these days so that may not be
that big a problem but this is, it takes about four years of driving to make
up for the energy used to build your hybrid over the energy consumed driving
your old gas guzzler.  Diesels are the way to go - after you've driven your
gas guzzler to it's bitter end.  The railroad and trucking industry figured
this out a long time ago. GM killed the diesel car business in the early
80's with their POS converted gas to diesel engine.  The Europeans are
way ahead of us on this one.  Hyundai is building a diesel/electric hybrid
for the China market (we own two pieces of Hyundai construction equipment
and are impressed with their quality).  I'm watching that one!

Gas prices are expected to remain low for awhile which means people will
forget the pain they just experienced.  I'll keep my 12 year old Lexus for
another 100,000 miles and see what's on the market then.

Brad


On 10/9/06, Hank <hnw555 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Bill,
>
> On the subject of hybrid cars, we recently bought a new car and we were
> looking at the Honda Civic, both standard and hybrid.  For us, the math
> just
> didn't work out and we ended up buying the standard version. I'll show you
> what I mean.  FYI, both of the cause were comparable equipped with the
> only
> real difference being the drivetrain.
>
>
>
> Honda Civic
>
> MPG
>
> Gas Cost/Gal
>
> Annual Miles
>
> Gas/year (Mileage/MPG)
>
> Gas Cost/year
>
> Veh Cost
>
> # of years to break even
>
> Regular
>
> 30
>
> 2.5
>
> 15000
>
> 500
>
> 1250
>
> 18000
>
>
>
> Hybrid
>
> 50
>
> 2.5
>
> 15000
>
> 300
>
> 750
>
> 22000
>
> 8
>
>
>
> At a savings of $500 a year in gas, it would take 8 years for the hybrid
> to
> break even with the normal engine version because of the increased
> purchase
> price. To me, that is just not economically feasible.
> Hank
>
> On 10/9/06, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
> >
> > Saroj,
> >
> > Just found this.  Be careful on geothermal.  My brother tried it and got
> > burned--no, that's a bad word word in this instance--he got frozen--it
> > sucked so much water out of the ground that there was none left for
> > cooking or bathing--not to mention that it got lukewarm very quickly.
> >
> > Bill Effros
> >
> > PS -- I've rented the straight diesel cars in Europe and they are
> > sensational.  You can't tell they are diesels any more except when you
> > keep passing gas pumps without needing any more fuel.  I am seriously
> > considering a hybrid Camry for myself.
> >
> > Saroj Gilbert wrote:
> > > I've heard the deisel - electric cars are available in Europe now.. so
> > > maybe not so far away.
> > >
> > > I am planning on geothermal which should certainly help with the
> > > cooling... as it turns out I have to dig a well on this property even
> > > though it is fairly Urban... a very old and small neighborhood where
> > > most have wells already so no impetus to provide city water.  which is
> > > just fine with me. The well drilling company I plan to use already has
> > > experience drilling the geothermal holes as well... so one-stop
> > shopping.
> > >
> > > Also already planning on the SIP approach... trying to blend the
> > > energy-efficiency with some interesting architecture aside from the
> > > typical Colonial or brick ranch that is common in this area.  Thought
> > > seriously about doing a dome, but decided against it for this area for
> > > asset-protection reasons.
> > >
> > > Thanks for the good info!
> > >
> > > Saroj
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message ----- From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 1:01 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> > >
> > >
> > > Bill & Saroj,
> > >
> > > Bill, the Jetta will work for me.  I've owned a couple of early 80's
> > > diesel
> > > Rabbits and a diesel Audi 4000 (same drive train) The Rabbit hatchback
> > is
> > > coming back but I prefer a sedan.  I flew GDL, Mexico all last month
> > > where
> > > the Jetta is built.  They just settled their strike and hopefully the
> > > quality will be good.
> > >
> > > Saroj, diesel-hybrids are off the shelf technology and my company did
> a
> > > joint-venture with Eaton to produce diesel-hybrid delivery
> trucks.  Duh!
> > > Think trains and WW2 submarines.  You should expect 80mpg+ when they
> > come
> > > but when will that be?  I'll move earlier and go with a straight
> > > diesel and
> > > hope for rapeseed biodiesel.  The only way to go with the home is
> > > insulated
> > > concrete forms and geo-thermal radiant heating.  Cooling is another
> > > issue.
> > > A nuke powerplant running A/C is the ticket.  You have no control
> > > where your
> > > electrons come from but they probably come from coal.
> > >
> > > Didn't we have this same discussion in the 70's?
> > >
> > > Brad
> > >
> > >
> > > On 9/15/06, Saroj Gilbert <saroj at pathfind.net> wrote:
> > >>
> > >> I hear you on that... as for me... I'm looking to diesel hybrid for
> my
> > >> next
> > >> car... and currently doing intensive research on how to make my new
> > >> house
> > >> (yet to be built) use as little non-renewable energy as possible...
> > >> quite
> > >> an
> > >> interesting exploration for me... refreshing information that I
> hadn't
> > >> read
> > >> too much about since I subscribed to Mother Earth News in the
> > >> 70's.  Heating
> > >> shouldn't be a problem but dealing with the hot, humid summers will
> be
> > >> challenging.
> > >>
> > >> Its hard to balance the economics on electricity usage in this area
> > >> (S.E.
> > >> VA) since it is so very low... 6 cents a KW if I remember correctly;
> > >> however
> > >> I feel strongly about it and will do whatever I can... luckily I work
> > >> out
> > >> of
> > >> my home and the new house will be so close to a lot of services that
> I
> > >> should be able to ride the bike a lot of places.
> > >>
> > >> Saroj
> > >>
> > >> ----- Original Message -----
> > >> From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > >> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > >> Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 11:54 AM
> > >> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> Saroj,
> > >>
> > >> Maybe, I don't agree with all the premises of the article but
> > everything
> > >> does line up for a fall, just not as far as the author
> suggested.  The
> > >> unfortunate repercussion is that it will encourage us to go back to
> our
> > >> foolish ways.  Peak Oil is coming!  The folks who have the most oil
> are
> > >> still the same folks who hate us the most.  The two fastest growing
> oil
> > >> consuming nations, China and India, aren't slowing down. China
> doesn't
> > >> give
> > >> a shit about anything but China, and they're cutting deals everywhere
> > >> for
> > >> every commodity.  I can't make my jet or our equipment burn less
> > >> fuel, but
> > >> my next car *will *get 50mpg+.  Hopefully it won't smell like shrimp.
> > >>
> > >> Brad
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> On 9/15/06, Saroj Gilbert <saroj at pathfind.net> wrote:
> > >> >
> > >> > That would be good news...
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> > ----- Original Message -----
> > >> > From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > >> > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > >> > Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 9:23 AM
> > >> > Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> > <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/home/>
> > >> >
> > >> > Thursday, September 14, 2006 - 12:00 AM
> > >> >
> > >> > *.*
> > >> >
> > >> > **
> > >> > *
> > >> > **Analyst predicts plunge in gas prices*
> > >> >
> > >> > *By Kevin G. Hall*
> > >> > *McClatchy Newspapers*
> > >> >
> > >> > WASHINGTON — The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil
> > >> could
> > >> > mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices
> to
> > >> lows
> > >> > not seen since the late 1990s — perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon.
> > >> >
> > >> > "All the hurricane flags are flying" in oil markets, said Philip
> > >> Verleger,
> > >> > a
> > >> > noted energy consultant who was a lone voice several years ago in
> > >> warning
> > >> > that oil prices would soar. Now, he says, they appear to be poised
> > >> for a
> > >> > dramatic plunge.
> > >> >
> > >> > Crude-oil prices have fallen about $14, or roughly 17 percent, from
> > >> their
> > >> > July 14 peak of $78.40. After falling seven straight days, they
> rose
> > >> > slightly Wednesday in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange,
> to
> > >> > $63.97, partly in reaction to a government report showing fuel
> > >> inventories
> > >> > a
> > >> > bit lower than expected. But the overall price drop is expected to
> > >> > continue,
> > >> > and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead.
> > >> >
> > >> > Here's why:
> > >> >
> > >> > For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because the
> > >> world's
> > >> > oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand,
> > >> > particularly
> > >> > from China and India. Spare oil-production capacity grew so tight
> > that
> > >> > market players feared that any disruption to oil production could
> > >> create
> > >> > shortages.
> > >> >
> > >> > Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria, escalating
> > tensions
> > >> > over
> > >> > Iran's nuclear program, violence between Israel and Lebanon that
> > might
> > >> > spread to oil-producing neighbors, and the prospect that hurricanes
> > >> might
> > >> > topple oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
> > >> >
> > >> > Oil traders bet that such worrisome developments would drive up the
> > >> future
> > >> > price of oil. Oil is traded in contracts for future delivery, and
> > >> > companies
> > >> > that take physical delivery of oil are just a small part of total
> > >> trading.
> > >> > Large pension and commodities funds are the big traders and they're
> > >> > seeking
> > >> > profits. They've sunk $105 billion or more into oil futures in
> recent
> > >> > years,
> > >> > according to Verleger. Their bets that oil prices would rise in the
> > >> future
> > >> > bid up the price of oil.
> > >> >
> > >> > That, in turn, led users of oil to create stockpiles as cushions
> > >> against
> > >> > supply disruptions and even higher future prices. Now inventories
> > >> of oil
> > >> > are
> > >> > approaching 1990 levels.
> > >> >
> > >> > But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil
> > >> prices are
> > >> > ebbing. Tensions over Israel, Lebanon and Nigeria are easing. The
> > >> > hurricane
> > >> > season has presented no threat so far to the Gulf of Mexico. The
> U.S.
> > >> peak
> > >> > summer driving season is over, so gasoline demand is falling.
> > >> >
> > >> > With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began sliding.
> > With
> > >> oil
> > >> > inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are expected
> > to
> > >> cut
> > >> > production. As refiners cut production, oil companies increasingly
> > >> risk
> > >> > getting stuck with excess oil supplies. There's already anecdotal
> > >> evidence
> > >> > of oil companies chartering tankers to store excess oil.
> > >> >
> > >> > All this is turning financial markets increasingly bearish on oil.
> > >> >
> > >> > "If we continue to build inventories, and if we have a warm winter
> > >> like
> > >> we
> > >> > had last winter, you could see a large fall in the price of oil,"
> > said
> > >> > Gary
> > >> > Pokoik, who manages Hedge Ventures Energy in Los Angeles, an energy
> > >> hedge
> > >> > fund. "I think there is still a lot of risk in the market."
> > >> >
> > >> > As it stands now, the recent oil-price slump has brought the
> national
> > >> > average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline down to $2.59, according
> to
> > >> the
> > >> > AAA motor club. In the Seattle area, prices per gallon have fallen
> to
> > >> > $2.856
> > >> > currently from $3.071 a month ago, a decline of 7 percent,
> > >> according to
> > >> > AAA.
> > >> >
> > >> > Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will get
> > worse
> > >> and
> > >> > run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts, Verleger
> > >> said,
> > >> > it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or less a
> > >> barrel,
> > >> > at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as
> $1.15
> > >> per
> > >> > gallon.
> > >> >
> > >> > Other experts won't guess at a floor price, but they agree that a
> > race
> > >> to
> > >> > the bottom could break out.
> > >> >
> > >> > "The market may test levels here that are too low to be sustained,"
> > >> said
> > >> > Clay Seigle, an analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a
> > >> > consultancy in Boston.
> > >> >
> > >> > On Monday, the oil-producing cartel OPEC hinted that if prices fall
> > >> > precipitously, OPEC members would cut production to lift them. But
> > >> that
> > >> > would take time.
> > >> >
> > >> > "That takes six to nine months. If we don't have a really cold
> winter
> > >> here
> > >> > [creating a demand for oil], prices will fall. Literally, you don't
> > >> know
> > >> > where the floor is," Verleger said. "In a market like this, if
> things
> > >> > start
> > >> > falling ... prices could take you back to the 1999 levels. It has
> > >> nothing
> > >> > to
> > >> > do with production."
> > >> >
> > >> > <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/news/general/copyright.html>
> > >> > __________________________________________________
> > >> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
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