[Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling

TN Rhodey tnrhodey at hotmail.com
Mon Oct 9 16:54:23 EDT 2006 

Hank,

I love my 2005 Civic EX 2 door 5 speed. I get right at 38 MPG and I run it 
prety hard. A great little car!

Wally


>From: Hank <hnw555 at gmail.com>
>Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
>Date: Mon, 9 Oct 2006 10:56:57 -0400
>
>Bill,
>
>On the subject of hybrid cars, we recently bought a new car and we were
>looking at the Honda Civic, both standard and hybrid.  For us, the math 
>just
>didn't work out and we ended up buying the standard version. I'll show you
>what I mean.  FYI, both of the cause were comparable equipped with the only
>real difference being the drivetrain.
>
>
>
>Honda Civic
>
>MPG
>
>Gas Cost/Gal
>
>Annual Miles
>
>Gas/year (Mileage/MPG)
>
>Gas Cost/year
>
>Veh Cost
>
># of years to break even
>
>Regular
>
>30
>
>2.5
>
>15000
>
>500
>
>1250
>
>18000
>
>
>
>Hybrid
>
>50
>
>2.5
>
>15000
>
>300
>
>750
>
>22000
>
>8
>
>
>
>At a savings of $500 a year in gas, it would take 8 years for the hybrid to
>break even with the normal engine version because of the increased purchase
>price. To me, that is just not economically feasible.
>Hank
>
>On 10/9/06, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
>>
>>Saroj,
>>
>>Just found this.  Be careful on geothermal.  My brother tried it and got
>>burned--no, that's a bad word word in this instance--he got frozen--it
>>sucked so much water out of the ground that there was none left for
>>cooking or bathing--not to mention that it got lukewarm very quickly.
>>
>>Bill Effros
>>
>>PS -- I've rented the straight diesel cars in Europe and they are
>>sensational.  You can't tell they are diesels any more except when you
>>keep passing gas pumps without needing any more fuel.  I am seriously
>>considering a hybrid Camry for myself.
>>
>>Saroj Gilbert wrote:
>> > I've heard the deisel - electric cars are available in Europe now.. so
>> > maybe not so far away.
>> >
>> > I am planning on geothermal which should certainly help with the
>> > cooling... as it turns out I have to dig a well on this property even
>> > though it is fairly Urban... a very old and small neighborhood where
>> > most have wells already so no impetus to provide city water.  which is
>> > just fine with me. The well drilling company I plan to use already has
>> > experience drilling the geothermal holes as well... so one-stop
>>shopping.
>> >
>> > Also already planning on the SIP approach... trying to blend the
>> > energy-efficiency with some interesting architecture aside from the
>> > typical Colonial or brick ranch that is common in this area.  Thought
>> > seriously about doing a dome, but decided against it for this area for
>> > asset-protection reasons.
>> >
>> > Thanks for the good info!
>> >
>> > Saroj
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message ----- From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
>> > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>> > Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 1:01 PM
>> > Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
>> >
>> >
>> > Bill & Saroj,
>> >
>> > Bill, the Jetta will work for me.  I've owned a couple of early 80's
>> > diesel
>> > Rabbits and a diesel Audi 4000 (same drive train) The Rabbit hatchback
>>is
>> > coming back but I prefer a sedan.  I flew GDL, Mexico all last month
>> > where
>> > the Jetta is built.  They just settled their strike and hopefully the
>> > quality will be good.
>> >
>> > Saroj, diesel-hybrids are off the shelf technology and my company did a
>> > joint-venture with Eaton to produce diesel-hybrid delivery trucks.  
>>Duh!
>> > Think trains and WW2 submarines.  You should expect 80mpg+ when they
>>come
>> > but when will that be?  I'll move earlier and go with a straight
>> > diesel and
>> > hope for rapeseed biodiesel.  The only way to go with the home is
>> > insulated
>> > concrete forms and geo-thermal radiant heating.  Cooling is another
>> > issue.
>> > A nuke powerplant running A/C is the ticket.  You have no control
>> > where your
>> > electrons come from but they probably come from coal.
>> >
>> > Didn't we have this same discussion in the 70's?
>> >
>> > Brad
>> >
>> >
>> > On 9/15/06, Saroj Gilbert <saroj at pathfind.net> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> I hear you on that... as for me... I'm looking to diesel hybrid for my
>> >> next
>> >> car... and currently doing intensive research on how to make my new
>> >> house
>> >> (yet to be built) use as little non-renewable energy as possible...
>> >> quite
>> >> an
>> >> interesting exploration for me... refreshing information that I hadn't
>> >> read
>> >> too much about since I subscribed to Mother Earth News in the
>> >> 70's.  Heating
>> >> shouldn't be a problem but dealing with the hot, humid summers will be
>> >> challenging.
>> >>
>> >> Its hard to balance the economics on electricity usage in this area
>> >> (S.E.
>> >> VA) since it is so very low... 6 cents a KW if I remember correctly;
>> >> however
>> >> I feel strongly about it and will do whatever I can... luckily I work
>> >> out
>> >> of
>> >> my home and the new house will be so close to a lot of services that I
>> >> should be able to ride the bike a lot of places.
>> >>
>> >> Saroj
>> >>
>> >> ----- Original Message -----
>> >> From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
>> >> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>> >> Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 11:54 AM
>> >> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Saroj,
>> >>
>> >> Maybe, I don't agree with all the premises of the article but
>>everything
>> >> does line up for a fall, just not as far as the author suggested.  The
>> >> unfortunate repercussion is that it will encourage us to go back to 
>>our
>> >> foolish ways.  Peak Oil is coming!  The folks who have the most oil 
>>are
>> >> still the same folks who hate us the most.  The two fastest growing 
>>oil
>> >> consuming nations, China and India, aren't slowing down. China doesn't
>> >> give
>> >> a shit about anything but China, and they're cutting deals everywhere
>> >> for
>> >> every commodity.  I can't make my jet or our equipment burn less
>> >> fuel, but
>> >> my next car *will *get 50mpg+.  Hopefully it won't smell like shrimp.
>> >>
>> >> Brad
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> On 9/15/06, Saroj Gilbert <saroj at pathfind.net> wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> > That would be good news...
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > ----- Original Message -----
>> >> > From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
>> >> > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>> >> > Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 9:23 AM
>> >> > Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/home/>
>> >> >
>> >> > Thursday, September 14, 2006 - 12:00 AM
>> >> >
>> >> > *.*
>> >> >
>> >> > **
>> >> > *
>> >> > **Analyst predicts plunge in gas prices*
>> >> >
>> >> > *By Kevin G. Hall*
>> >> > *McClatchy Newspapers*
>> >> >
>> >> > WASHINGTON — The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil
>> >> could
>> >> > mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices to
>> >> lows
>> >> > not seen since the late 1990s — perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon.
>> >> >
>> >> > "All the hurricane flags are flying" in oil markets, said Philip
>> >> Verleger,
>> >> > a
>> >> > noted energy consultant who was a lone voice several years ago in
>> >> warning
>> >> > that oil prices would soar. Now, he says, they appear to be poised
>> >> for a
>> >> > dramatic plunge.
>> >> >
>> >> > Crude-oil prices have fallen about $14, or roughly 17 percent, from
>> >> their
>> >> > July 14 peak of $78.40. After falling seven straight days, they rose
>> >> > slightly Wednesday in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, 
>>to
>> >> > $63.97, partly in reaction to a government report showing fuel
>> >> inventories
>> >> > a
>> >> > bit lower than expected. But the overall price drop is expected to
>> >> > continue,
>> >> > and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead.
>> >> >
>> >> > Here's why:
>> >> >
>> >> > For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because the
>> >> world's
>> >> > oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand,
>> >> > particularly
>> >> > from China and India. Spare oil-production capacity grew so tight
>>that
>> >> > market players feared that any disruption to oil production could
>> >> create
>> >> > shortages.
>> >> >
>> >> > Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria, escalating
>>tensions
>> >> > over
>> >> > Iran's nuclear program, violence between Israel and Lebanon that
>>might
>> >> > spread to oil-producing neighbors, and the prospect that hurricanes
>> >> might
>> >> > topple oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
>> >> >
>> >> > Oil traders bet that such worrisome developments would drive up the
>> >> future
>> >> > price of oil. Oil is traded in contracts for future delivery, and
>> >> > companies
>> >> > that take physical delivery of oil are just a small part of total
>> >> trading.
>> >> > Large pension and commodities funds are the big traders and they're
>> >> > seeking
>> >> > profits. They've sunk $105 billion or more into oil futures in 
>>recent
>> >> > years,
>> >> > according to Verleger. Their bets that oil prices would rise in the
>> >> future
>> >> > bid up the price of oil.
>> >> >
>> >> > That, in turn, led users of oil to create stockpiles as cushions
>> >> against
>> >> > supply disruptions and even higher future prices. Now inventories
>> >> of oil
>> >> > are
>> >> > approaching 1990 levels.
>> >> >
>> >> > But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil
>> >> prices are
>> >> > ebbing. Tensions over Israel, Lebanon and Nigeria are easing. The
>> >> > hurricane
>> >> > season has presented no threat so far to the Gulf of Mexico. The 
>>U.S.
>> >> peak
>> >> > summer driving season is over, so gasoline demand is falling.
>> >> >
>> >> > With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began sliding.
>>With
>> >> oil
>> >> > inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are expected
>>to
>> >> cut
>> >> > production. As refiners cut production, oil companies increasingly
>> >> risk
>> >> > getting stuck with excess oil supplies. There's already anecdotal
>> >> evidence
>> >> > of oil companies chartering tankers to store excess oil.
>> >> >
>> >> > All this is turning financial markets increasingly bearish on oil.
>> >> >
>> >> > "If we continue to build inventories, and if we have a warm winter
>> >> like
>> >> we
>> >> > had last winter, you could see a large fall in the price of oil,"
>>said
>> >> > Gary
>> >> > Pokoik, who manages Hedge Ventures Energy in Los Angeles, an energy
>> >> hedge
>> >> > fund. "I think there is still a lot of risk in the market."
>> >> >
>> >> > As it stands now, the recent oil-price slump has brought the 
>>national
>> >> > average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline down to $2.59, according 
>>to
>> >> the
>> >> > AAA motor club. In the Seattle area, prices per gallon have fallen 
>>to
>> >> > $2.856
>> >> > currently from $3.071 a month ago, a decline of 7 percent,
>> >> according to
>> >> > AAA.
>> >> >
>> >> > Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will get
>>worse
>> >> and
>> >> > run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts, Verleger
>> >> said,
>> >> > it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or less a
>> >> barrel,
>> >> > at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as 
>>$1.15
>> >> per
>> >> > gallon.
>> >> >
>> >> > Other experts won't guess at a floor price, but they agree that a
>>race
>> >> to
>> >> > the bottom could break out.
>> >> >
>> >> > "The market may test levels here that are too low to be sustained,"
>> >> said
>> >> > Clay Seigle, an analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a
>> >> > consultancy in Boston.
>> >> >
>> >> > On Monday, the oil-producing cartel OPEC hinted that if prices fall
>> >> > precipitously, OPEC members would cut production to lift them. But
>> >> that
>> >> > would take time.
>> >> >
>> >> > "That takes six to nine months. If we don't have a really cold 
>>winter
>> >> here
>> >> > [creating a demand for oil], prices will fall. Literally, you don't
>> >> know
>> >> > where the floor is," Verleger said. "In a market like this, if 
>>things
>> >> > start
>> >> > falling ... prices could take you back to the 1999 levels. It has
>> >> nothing
>> >> > to
>> >> > do with production."
>> >> >
>> >> > <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/news/general/copyright.html>
>> >> > __________________________________________________
>> >> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
>> >> >
>> >> > __________________________________________________
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