[Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling

[Brad Haslett]

Bill & Saroj,

Bill, the Jetta will work for me.  I've owned a couple of early 80's diesel
Rabbits and a diesel Audi 4000 (same drive train) The Rabbit hatchback is
coming back but I prefer a sedan.  I flew GDL, Mexico all last month where
the Jetta is built.  They just settled their strike and hopefully the
quality will be good.

Saroj, diesel-hybrids are off the shelf technology and my company did a
joint-venture with Eaton to produce diesel-hybrid delivery trucks.  Duh!
Think trains and WW2 submarines.  You should expect 80mpg+ when they come
but when will that be?  I'll move earlier and go with a straight diesel and
hope for rapeseed biodiesel.  The only way to go with the home is insulated
concrete forms and geo-thermal radiant heating.  Cooling is another issue.
A nuke powerplant running A/C is the ticket.  You have no control where your
electrons come from but they probably come from coal.

Didn't we have this same discussion in the 70's?

Brad


On 9/15/06, Saroj Gilbert <saroj at pathfind.net> wrote:
>
> I hear you on that... as for me... I'm looking to diesel hybrid for my
> next
> car... and currently doing intensive research on how to make my new house
> (yet to be built) use as little non-renewable energy as possible... quite
> an
> interesting exploration for me... refreshing information that I hadn't
> read
> too much about since I subscribed to Mother Earth News in the
> 70's.  Heating
> shouldn't be a problem but dealing with the hot, humid summers will be
> challenging.
>
> Its hard to balance the economics on electricity usage in this area (S.E.
> VA) since it is so very low... 6 cents a KW if I remember correctly;
> however
> I feel strongly about it and will do whatever I can... luckily I work out
> of
> my home and the new house will be so close to a lot of services that I
> should be able to ride the bike a lot of places.
>
> Saroj
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 11:54 AM
> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
>
>
> Saroj,
>
> Maybe, I don't agree with all the premises of the article but everything
> does line up for a fall, just not as far as the author suggested.  The
> unfortunate repercussion is that it will encourage us to go back to our
> foolish ways.  Peak Oil is coming!  The folks who have the most oil are
> still the same folks who hate us the most.  The two fastest growing oil
> consuming nations, China and India, aren't slowing down. China doesn't
> give
> a shit about anything but China, and they're cutting deals everywhere for
> every commodity.  I can't make my jet or our equipment burn less fuel, but
> my next car *will *get 50mpg+.  Hopefully it won't smell like shrimp.
>
> Brad
>
>
> On 9/15/06, Saroj Gilbert <saroj at pathfind.net> wrote:
> >
> > That would be good news...
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 9:23 AM
> > Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> >
> >
> > <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/home/>
> >
> > Thursday, September 14, 2006 - 12:00 AM
> >
> > *.*
> >
> > **
> > *
> > **Analyst predicts plunge in gas prices*
> >
> > *By Kevin G. Hall*
> > *McClatchy Newspapers*
> >
> > WASHINGTON — The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil
> could
> > mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices to
> lows
> > not seen since the late 1990s — perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon.
> >
> > "All the hurricane flags are flying" in oil markets, said Philip
> Verleger,
> > a
> > noted energy consultant who was a lone voice several years ago in
> warning
> > that oil prices would soar. Now, he says, they appear to be poised for a
> > dramatic plunge.
> >
> > Crude-oil prices have fallen about $14, or roughly 17 percent, from
> their
> > July 14 peak of $78.40. After falling seven straight days, they rose
> > slightly Wednesday in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, to
> > $63.97, partly in reaction to a government report showing fuel
> inventories
> > a
> > bit lower than expected. But the overall price drop is expected to
> > continue,
> > and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead.
> >
> > Here's why:
> >
> > For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because the
> world's
> > oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand,
> > particularly
> > from China and India. Spare oil-production capacity grew so tight that
> > market players feared that any disruption to oil production could create
> > shortages.
> >
> > Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria, escalating tensions
> > over
> > Iran's nuclear program, violence between Israel and Lebanon that might
> > spread to oil-producing neighbors, and the prospect that hurricanes
> might
> > topple oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
> >
> > Oil traders bet that such worrisome developments would drive up the
> future
> > price of oil. Oil is traded in contracts for future delivery, and
> > companies
> > that take physical delivery of oil are just a small part of total
> trading.
> > Large pension and commodities funds are the big traders and they're
> > seeking
> > profits. They've sunk $105 billion or more into oil futures in recent
> > years,
> > according to Verleger. Their bets that oil prices would rise in the
> future
> > bid up the price of oil.
> >
> > That, in turn, led users of oil to create stockpiles as cushions against
> > supply disruptions and even higher future prices. Now inventories of oil
> > are
> > approaching 1990 levels.
> >
> > But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil prices are
> > ebbing. Tensions over Israel, Lebanon and Nigeria are easing. The
> > hurricane
> > season has presented no threat so far to the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S.
> peak
> > summer driving season is over, so gasoline demand is falling.
> >
> > With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began sliding. With
> oil
> > inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are expected to
> cut
> > production. As refiners cut production, oil companies increasingly risk
> > getting stuck with excess oil supplies. There's already anecdotal
> evidence
> > of oil companies chartering tankers to store excess oil.
> >
> > All this is turning financial markets increasingly bearish on oil.
> >
> > "If we continue to build inventories, and if we have a warm winter like
> we
> > had last winter, you could see a large fall in the price of oil," said
> > Gary
> > Pokoik, who manages Hedge Ventures Energy in Los Angeles, an energy
> hedge
> > fund. "I think there is still a lot of risk in the market."
> >
> > As it stands now, the recent oil-price slump has brought the national
> > average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline down to $2.59, according to
> the
> > AAA motor club. In the Seattle area, prices per gallon have fallen to
> > $2.856
> > currently from $3.071 a month ago, a decline of 7 percent, according to
> > AAA.
> >
> > Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will get worse
> and
> > run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts, Verleger said,
> > it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or less a
> barrel,
> > at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as $1.15
> per
> > gallon.
> >
> > Other experts won't guess at a floor price, but they agree that a race
> to
> > the bottom could break out.
> >
> > "The market may test levels here that are too low to be sustained," said
> > Clay Seigle, an analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a
> > consultancy in Boston.
> >
> > On Monday, the oil-producing cartel OPEC hinted that if prices fall
> > precipitously, OPEC members would cut production to lift them. But that
> > would take time.
> >
> > "That takes six to nine months. If we don't have a really cold winter
> here
> > [creating a demand for oil], prices will fall. Literally, you don't know
> > where the floor is," Verleger said. "In a market like this, if things
> > start
> > falling ... prices could take you back to the 1999 levels. It has
> nothing
> > to
> > do with production."
> >
> > <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/news/general/copyright.html>
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