[Rhodes22-list] Katrina Update

[Brad Haslett]

Dave,

Roger, Wilco.  There are tons of issues that have to be resolved before the
serious rebuilding begins.  Engineering is one.  It makes no sense to
rebuild the same bridge knowing it will get knocked down in the next
hurricane. No engineering firm is going to stick their neck out without
doing their homework. The locals have had some pet projects they've wanted
funded for years and are using this as the excuse to get it
done.Thesquabbling over funding priorities has bogged some things
down.  They got
shot down on getting their hands on the CSX railroad but there are plenty of
others.  Eminent domain always creates lawsuits and takes time.  FEMA gets
their guidelines on elevations from the CORP and the CORP took 14 months to
parse the data from the storm surge.  You really can't blame FEMA for not
wanting to pay for the same real estate twice or the CORP rushing to produce
a number knowing they'll get blamed as soon as the new elevation gets
breached.  Then, when the new elevations were produced, they was an outcry
from liberals that they were discriminatory against poor people who couldn't
rebuild near the beach.  Katrina didn't discriminate, she rocked every
body's world in her path.  The big issue now is insurance.  State Farm just
lost a big lawsuit with huge punitive damages.  It's hard to feel sorry for
insurance companies but they have to show a profit to provide a service.  My
guess is that insurance rates for all coastal communities in hurricane prone
areas will rise dramatically. Many will pull out of Mississippi altogether.
Allstate cancelled my earthquake insurance in Memphis to cut their exposure
due to Katrina losses. We all are bearing the costs in ways we never thought
of. There's no shortage of contractors, it is quite competitive and the
prices for every service keeps dropping.  Supplies are not a problem at all,
plenty of competition there as well.  There is a shortage of labor but
that's a chicken v egg thing.  Which comes first, labor for housing or
housing for labor?  FEMA is supposed to by law be out of town by Feb 28th.
Bush will extend it again, that's a no brainer for housing but always causes
problems for demo work.  There will be a spurt of activity for the next
three weeks in anticipation of FEMA not picking up debris streetside,
they'll get extended, and things will grind to a standstill until the next
deadline.  We're not talking about residential property, these are
businesses who have already gotten their insurance settlements.  This game
will go on until FEMA permanently pulls the plug on the debris program.  I
don't have a clue what is going on in New Orleans, that's a whole different
set of problems.  I do know that they got a new re-construction czar who is
supposed to be good.  He's suggesting buying people's lots provided they
move to high ground.  That makes sense to me but again, we're not in NOLA
and don't pay that much attention to what is happening over there.  Every
prediction I've read in all the professional construction journals suggest
that the real re-construction won't really start until 2008  and won't end
until 2018.  Some things can be hurried and some can't. The damage in
Mississippi alone qualifies for the largest natural disaster in our
history.  Add in NOLA and you get an idea of the size of the problems. If
the federal government steps in and starts running roughshod over property
owners and local governments you'll really hear some bitching.  The whole
issue is one ugly mess with no quick and easy solutions.

And that's the ugly truth!

Brad

On 2/4/07, DCLewis1 at aol.com <DCLewis1 at aol.com> wrote:
>
>
> Brad,
>
> So disabuse my sense of unreality regarding the gulf coast.  I say  they
> need
> help.  I say building bridges, roads, and infrastructure takes  heavy
> equipment, heavy equipment  operators, welders, I beams, thousands
> of  yards of
> concrete.  I say the need is for competent professional  construction
> workers and
> supplies.  You say "send me some  volunteers".  Whose serious?  Volunteers
> from the Ladies Aid Society  from our local Baptist church are going to
> weld the
> I beams, move the earth, lay  the concrete?  I don't think so.  Who
> perceives
> a problem that  requires manpower and resources.  I think it's me.
>
> Or maybe what you are not quite plainly stating is that there really is no
> problem in the gulf region.  That the remaining damage is modest
> and  something
> a few volunteers can handle?
>
> There are very definite limits as to what well meaning volunteers can do,
> unless they happen to have specific expertise.  My experience is
> the  greatest
> good thing to come from volunteering is that the volunteers feel
> good  about
> themselves.  You want to rebuild?  Get competent professional  people and
> equipment(i.e. spend $),  they will do the job better, faster,  and to
> code.  There'
> s a time and place for volunteering but my  understanding is that to a
> large
> extent the gulf rebuild is not that time  or place - I understand that
> conflicts with your ideology.
>
> As to bellyaching about getting people to work on the rebuild, I
> think  the
> unemployment rate in Michigan and Ohio is 6 to 8%.  Try  recruiting.
>
> I promise you, one qualified heavy equipment operator will move more earth
> or trash in a day than you and I as volunteers will move in a month.   If
> your
> serious about the gulf coast rebuild, you'll get off this
> volunteer  shtick.
>
> Which brings us to how to pay for all the professional help, equipment,
> and
> supplies that are needed.  The money has been authorized and approved,
> it's
> sitting in some account as a line item, the debit has already been marked
> against the budget, all that remains for some bureaucrat to say
> professional
> companies can incur costs.  Why hasn't that bureaucrat given the
> go  ahead?  And
> it all comes back to Jr.
>
> It's not fair to zing Jr for every little thing that doesn't get done by
> federal agencies, but this shortfall is truly big, we're talking 2 states
> of the
> union.  You've seen the bumper sticker "United We Stand", we'll there
> ought
> to be one that says "United We Rebuild", rebuilding should reasonably be a
> national priority.  The rebuild should be a major focus for this, or any,
> Administration.  Jr and/or his designated rep should be completely on
> top  of and
> leading the rebuild effort - but of course we know that's not the  case.
>
> Bottom line: Stop asking for volunteers, the problem is much larger than a
> gaggle of volunteers with no specific expertise can handle, hire
> professional
> help and get on with it.
>
> Dave
>
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