[Rhodes22-list] Economics - More Good News

[Foy, Warren]

Brad,

I do own FDX, as well as UPS, both as individual stocks and I'm sure
through my MF investments.  They have both done well and I thank you for
both of them, competition helps.

In my profession, the federal government requirements for union
construction labor wage rates have hindered or cancelled many projects
because of the high, and non-competitive labor union rates.  I know that
you could not compete in your endevors in the Gulf Coast area in Katrina
re-construction if you were required to pay union wage rates, thus you
hire Latin-Americans (the latter, probably not).

As far as Toyota, I personally have no problem with Japanese companies
"Coming To America".  You mentioned Toyota being in Indiana, Texas and
California but there is also a major Toyota plant just north of me in
Georgetown, KY.  I have been there and know many people that do, and
have, worked there.  I do not know the "economics" of where the money
goes but I do know that the Georgetown plant is a great place to work,
providing many jobs and benefits to many Kentuckians.  I suspect that
the bulk of the profits made from the sale of the Camry's and other
vehicles and parts made in Georgetown, stay in Kentucky and pay tax to
the U.S.

I know that I, nor you, nor anyone else on this list (including my
namesake, Mr. Buffett (any kin to Jimmy), just kidding about the
namesake part, I couldn't afford even a couple of shares of BRK.A), can
ever time the market (save what's his name from "Back to the Future
II,(or whatever it was called)). That's why he and I are LTBH investors.
That's kind of what I meant in my thought about further investment in
stocks or MF's vs. T-Bills of saving bonds.  Should I simply divert
further investments or should I sell current holdings and convert to
cash.

I know sailors, I am way off topic but this is a bar environment, right?

You mentioned money market.  Back to my original question, why consider
money market vs. saving bonds or some other investment that directly
supports our government?  

What flying story?  Details man!

Warren


P.S.  I glad (no ecstatic) that Fed Ex decided to by planes from Boeing
rather than from Air Bus.


-----Original Message-----
From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
[mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org] On Behalf Of Brad Haslett
Sent: Saturday, July 14, 2007 2:49 PM
To: The Rhodes 22 mail list
Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Economics - More Good News

Warren,

I hope you own some FedEx stock as it is a good international investment
play. I try to keep my holdings in FDX under 10% for diversity, but
every
time I sell some it just keeps increasing in value. Trust me, my union
negotiated raise had negligible effect on the earnings per share.
Unions
and small time investors are two issues Marx and Engels didn't figure
into
their theory.  China has moved away  from being a 'nanny state' as fast
as
practicable and the results are good.  Every country that has moved in
the
opposite direction has suffered (think European Union).  Globalization
is a
fact of life, somewhat like gravity.  Remember when the Japanese were
going
to take over America in the 70's?  They have in a sense, Toyota's built
in
Indiana, Texas and California, Honda in Ohio, Nissan in Tennessee and
Mississippi, etc., and now we have Koreans in Alabama (Hyundai), BMW in
SC,
and the Bama Benz.  What goes around comes around.

Brad

You will never become expert at timing the market any more than the
'professional' fund managers are good at timing the market.  That other
famous investor named Warren wasn't a trader, he was a buy and hold guy.
I'm thinking about stopping any future purchases in mutual funds myself
for
a while and parking in T bills or money markets until things cool off a
bit.

Now as to the flying story, let's just say all ended well and my crew
was
eventually rewarded with an "atta boy".  That was after being under the
microscope for a while which is normal.  There are some things best left
alone on public boards.  BTW, I really do enjoy my job and work for one
of
the best employers ever!

Brad

On 7/14/07, Foy, Warren <Warren.Foy at masonandhanger.com> wrote:
>
> Brad and all,
>
> Seldom poster but can't resist today.
>
> I know that you're a union employee and I appreciate your employ (as
> well as your anecdotes about flying) but I'm not sure that helps me as
a
> shareholder of Fed Ex (or any other company).  I obviously agree that
if
> you or I could predict where the market was going, we could own the
> world. (As far as Gulfstream, my friend, (Senior Structural Design
> Manager or some similar title) would appreciate your reference).
>
> Who's complaining?  Not me necessarily, but until I become an expert
day
> trader where I can time the market, it does concern me to see my
payrole
> withholding going to purchase MF (Mutual Fund, (easy folks:)) shares
at
> such lofty prices.  I'm seriously thinking about diverting to cash
these
> days.
>
> Winnings off the table?  Wish I had some as most of mine were invested
> during the bubble.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
> [mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org] On Behalf Of Brad Haslett
> Sent: Saturday, July 14, 2007 1:06 PM
> To: The Rhodes 22 mail list
> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Economics - More Good News
>
> Warren,
>
> Wow, that's a lot but, I'll take a stab at it.  But first, a
disclaimer:
> I
> am an hourly paid union employee.  If I knew where the market was
going
> next
> month I'd fly my Gulfstream to the coast and take the yacht out this
> weekend.
>
> The growth of this market is not sustainable.  No market ever is and
> that is
> why we have business cycles.  This one has lasted longer and has been
> more
> robust than I would have predicted, but hey, who is complaining? We
saw
> what
> 9/11 did to the market - over a trillion dollars of wealth was wiped
out
> as
> soon as the markets re-opened.  The same thing would happen again with
> an
> attack of that scale.  My time frame to retirement is a bit shorter
than
> yours and quite honestly, I'm probably more of a risk taker than is
> prudent
> right now. But,  this market sure has been good.  When to get out?
I'm
> seriously thinking about taking some winnings off the table, however,
> every
> time I've done that in the past I missed the next run-up.  The time to
> buy
> clothes is when they are on sale.  I'm not changing my savings rate
> right
> now, I'm just scaling back to more conservative investments until
things
> cool a bit.  Unlike the Dot-Com bubble, this market is fundamentally
> sound,
> just a bit pricey for my tastes.
>
> To oversimplify the debt situation with China, we are a nation of
> spenders
> and they are a nation of savers.  The US runs a huge trade deficit
with
> China and they have to park that money somewhere.  US debt is a pretty
> safe
> bet.  China could wreak havoc if they dumped their holdings but it
would
> seriously harm their economy as well. A weaker dollar helps some, for
> example, it makes American goods easier to sell overseas.  But like
> anything
> in life, it has other repercussions as well.  Oil is priced in
dollars.
> For
> OPEC  to keep the same purchasing power per barrel they have to charge
> more
> for the stuff.  That hits us at the pump.  The upside is it should
> encourage
> us to use less oil, but the demand for oil is stubbornly inelastic.  A
> weak
> dollar also makes Disney World attractive to German tourists and beer
in
> Munich expensive for us.  Where's the happy medium?  I don't know,
they
> don't call economics the "dismal science" for nothing.
>
> I love the next question.  Why do people spend so much to save on
taxes?
> Remember who you are talking to.  I've been asking myself that
question
> a
> lot lately.  Remove the politics, the social agendas, and the class
> warfare
> from the argument and you come to this indisputable conclusion: lower
> taxes
> make for a more productive economy. Our marginal income tax rates were
> as
> high as 90% in the early 60's.  At those rates it makes no sense for
the
> most productive citizens to earn any more money.  Anytime you have
this
> discussion here on the list or on a national level everyone wants to
> hide
> from the truth.  The top 5% of taxpayers pay over 50% of the federal
> income
> tax.  We are not talking about so called "rich" people, we're talking
> about
> married professionals, small business owners, a lot of people on this
> list.
> People start looking for ways around paying more taxes when they don't
> think
> they are getting a good value for their money.  You cannot avoid
taxes,
> you
> can only defer them to a later date.  For example, I'm aggressively
> using
> the the tax provisions of the Katrina GO Zone Tax Act to expense
> construction equipment rather than depreciate it.  The tax will be
paid
> sometime, either through the use of the equipment of the disposal of
it.
> The idea is to pay the tax at a later date and use the time value of
the
> money.  Losing money to save on taxes makes no sense at all and is
based
> on
> emotion.  That being said, in 1980, I could sell an airplane to a
> doctor,
> lease it back, and the doctor would be positive cash flow for the
first
> 18
> months after debt service, even if the airplane never flew because of
> the
> tax savings.  That is why there is a limit to marginal income tax
rates
> without things getting silly.  Now factor in class warfare, socialist
> agendas, etc. and things really do get silly.
>
> If you want to participate in an interesting experiment, fly to
Gulfport
> and
> we'll go knock on some FEMA trailer doors.  I'll offer them a job and
> you
> record the reaction.  It will be something along these lines, "what,
are
> you
> crazy man, I've got a free place to live, no utilities, a monthly
> stipend,
> why give-up all that for some risky job scheme"?  We need to evolve
into
> a
> nation of workers AND savers.  That's where politics rears its ugly
head
> again. Becoming wealthy in this country is really simple.  The secret
> is,
> GET A JOB AND LIVE ON TEN PER CENT LESS THAN YOU EARN!
>
> How is that for a short answer?
>
> Brad
>
> On 7/14/07, Foy, Warren <Warren.Foy at masonandhanger.com> wrote:
> >
> > Brad,
> >
> > Why is so much of the national debt held by China and why does the
> > Federal Government allow this to happen? (honest question, I don't
> > know).
> >
> > You mentioned in a previous post yesterday the apparent good
economic
> > news and rise of the S&P and workers 401k's.  Yes, I checked mine
this
> > morning and all of the funds I am investing in are at record highs
as
> > well as many of the individual companies I am invested in - I love
it!
> > (for today): (maybe, as the current funds going into these funds are
> > purchasing fewer shares).
> >
> > (I'll pause for L.Sailor (Elle) - Do I use too much punctuation?)
> >
> > However, I remain concerned that because of political and terrorism
> > issues, the growth of the market is not sustainable.  I am young
> enough
> > (though not necessarily young, 47 with 20 or so years to retirement
> > (maybe them I can purchase a Rhodes 22)) that I feel that my 401k
> > retirement account can bridge more than one more significant market
> > corrections due to (political/terrorism/Mr. Market/ whatever).
> >
> > I know I am rambling but my primary question (not necessarily to you
> but
> > to the list) is, why don't Americans absorb the national debt
> ourselves
> > rather than allow it to go to other countries?  Aren't we the
> wealthiest
> > nation the world?  I think that the simple answer is the lack of
> > confidence in the administrations, whether it was Bush, Clinton,
Bush
> or
> > however far back you want to go, and a thought that the stock market
> > (whether American or International) will provide a better return,
> which
> > is probably (no definitely) true.
> >
> > I my opinion, the typical American individual and companies view
that
> a
> > potential lower overall return of investment in the United States of
> > America (via Saving Bonds or Treasury Bills), is super ceded by the
> > perception of a potential additional rate of return by investing in
> the
> > markets.  In short, I think that greed rules over national pride and
> > provision of national security.
> >
> > Simi related question - Why do so many Americans look for ways to
> spend
> > money to save on taxes?  I know people who have effectively blown
> > thousands of dollars to keep from paying a couple of hundred in
> Federal
> > taxes?  (I do understand that it is potentially better for the
overall
> > economy).
> >
> > Sorry for the long rant, I've got work to do and I can't go sailing
as
> > Rummy has my boat.  How is the boat Rummy?
> >
> > Warren Foy
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
> > [mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org] On Behalf Of Brad
Haslett
> > Sent: Friday, July 13, 2007 3:22 PM
> > To: The Rhodes 22 mail list
> > Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Economics - More Good News
> >
> > Rob,
> >
> > And the bad news is - much of that debt is held by China.
> >
> > The good news is - much of that debt is held by China.
> >
> > This is like "mutually assured destruction" with the Soviets but
with
> > money
> > instead of nukes.  Speaking of bombs, if we could just stop the
> ticking
> > on
> > the SS IED waiting down the road, I'd be happy.
> >
> > Brad
> >
> > PS - I'm going back to work this afternoon, I have my own deficit
and
> > debt
> > issues looming.
> >
> > On 7/13/07, Rob Lowe <rlowe at vt.edu> wrote:
> > >
> > > Oh, I think Stan knows, but here goes anyway.
> > >
> > > The deficit is the yearly difference between spending and
receipts.
> > The
> > > national debt is the sum of all the yearly deficits to date. The
> > national
> > > debt is approaching $7 trillion (yep, with a T).  Just think, your
> > > personal
> > > share is only about $30K, just short of the price of a new Rhodes.
> > >
> > > http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
> > >
> > > - rob
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "stan" <stan at rhodes22.com>
> > > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > Sent: Friday, July 13, 2007 2:52 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Economics - More Good News
> > >
> > >
> > > > help:  what is the difference between our national debt and our
> > national
> > > > deficit ?  And what are the comparison figures for the same
years
> > for
> > > the
> > > > national debt ?
> > > >
> > > > capitalistic minds need to know
> > > >
> > > > ss
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > > > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > > Sent: Friday, July 13, 2007 2:45 PM
> > > > Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Economics - More Good News
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Yesterdays record S & P was indeed good news!  Anyone look at
> the
> > > > > performance of their 401K lately?  No one needs to explain to
me
> > the
> > > > > fundamental weaknesses of the current economy, but by all
> > conventional
> > > > > yardsticks, things look good.  If we had some fiscal
discipline
> > from
> > > the
> > > > > Congress and especially the White House, we could cut taxes
> again.
> > > Alas,
> > > > > that won't happen.  But the previous tax cuts and the robust
> > economy
> > > that
> > > > > has resulted has made significant reductions in our debt load.
> > > > >
> > > > > Total US Deficit
> > > > >
> > > > > 2004 - $413 billion
> > > > > 2005 - $318 billion
> > > > > 2006 - $248 billion
> > > > > 2007 - $205 billion
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > US Deficit as a percentage of GNP
> > > > >
> > > > > 2004 - 3.6%
> > > > > 2005 - 2.6%
> > > > > 2006 - 1.9%
> > > > > 2007 - 1.5%
> > > > >
> > > > > I just love good economic news!
> > > > >
> > > > > Brad
> > > > > __________________________________________________
> > > > > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > > >
> > > > __________________________________________________
> > > > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > >
> > >
> > > __________________________________________________
> > > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > __________________________________________________
> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >
> __________________________________________________
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