[Rhodes22-list] Economics

Sun Mar 25 16:03:10 EDT 2007

Wally,

You can't legislate away the business cycle.  It is foolish to think that
any commodity can go up forever, real estate included. Too bad for those
people who overextended themselves, including the bankers.  Let them all
fall on their face and be done with it!   I've been telling everyone the
economy was good for the last few years because it has been good for the
last few years.  Not once did I ever say it would go on forever.  Our debt
as a percentage of GNP is well manageable, including the cost of the war,
but we can't keep spending on entitlement programs, especially social
security with the coming baby boom retirements, and expect things to stay
healthy. Look at where the money goes!  Our defense spending as a per cent
of GNP ain't Jack Shit compared to entitlements.  Do the math at  on that
before you go ballistic.  I don't wear rose colored glasses, I wear a green
eyeshade (must be that accounting undergrad thing).  Anyone who thinks we
can compete in the global market with our population growing more and more
dependent on the federal government is hiding behind the roses or just
doesn't understand basic macro-economics. The new economic front is India
and China.  They are already looking over their shoulder at Vietnam.  This
is a small globe and any prudent investor hedges his/her bets by putting
some money in the places that are kicking our ass. I don't drink Kool-Aid
when it comes to economics, I'm a realist and a history buff.  You should
worry about government spending - every 'nanny' government in the last
century has either failed or changed drastically (think Soviet Union and
China in that order).  EuroIslamia is next.  We're probably on the leading
edge of a correction (recession).  That's time to go shopping for bargains -
things are about to go on sale.

Wally, it would be damned difficult for me to do my career over again.  The
government, in their efforts to save everyone from themselves has almost
killed general aviation.  You can't hang around the airport fence as a
teenager and beg for a job.  This development in my industry is pervasive
through out our economy.  We're getting our asses kicked in growth rates as
a result. Combine the heavy hand of the federal government with
over-regulating everything and the propensity to over tax and we're the
also-ran in the global marketplace. I know you don't like the war but what
would we do with the money we saved?  Give it back to the taxpayers.  Hell
no!  We'd find more 'victims' to spend it on.

Brad

On 3/25/07, TN Rhodey <tnrhodey at hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> Brad,
>
> Maybe the FEDEX financials have you seeing things differently..... but
> based
> on the dozens if not hundreds of links you post I would say you drink a
> lot
> of cool aid. You have been trying to tell all for years now how great the
> economy is (was?) and we shouldn't worry about the cost of the war or the
> growing debt....it is not a problem.....yeah..yeah...yeah.
>
> I must admit I am in total agreement about not having sympathy for people
> who over extend due to keeping up with the Jone's. I also agree the
> President is given to much credit or blame for the economy. Please note
> that
> I made zero reference to Bush in the discussion of housing bust.
>
> I can handle my own spending just fine but it is the government spending
> that worries me more.
>
> Wally
>
>
> >From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> >Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> >To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> >Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
> >Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2007 07:53:53 -0600
> >
> >Wally,
> >
> >Glad I was busy and on the road for this thread.  When it comes to
> >economics, I don't drink anyone's Kool-Aid but look at the facts and make
> >my
> >own judgements.  Just as the Clinton year,s boom was based on the hype of
> >the dot-coms (and unstainable), much of the Bush 43 boom was based on
> >Detroit gas-guzzlers and cheap money (thus the real estate nonsense).
> >Neither could last forever.  All Presidents take credit for good times
> and
> >get blamed for bad ones when in fact, Presidents don't have that much
> >influence on the market.  This is a good thing!  Bush did some smart
> things
> >after 9/11, like cut taxes to spur the economy, and some really dumb
> ones,
> >like bail out airlines that should have been allowed to go
> under.  Frankly,
> >I have little sympathy for people getting burned for overbuying what they
> >could afford in real estate just I have little sympathy for shareholders
> >who
> >got burned on Enron or WorldCom.  The market is what the market is and
> >Presidents and the Congress usually muck-up necessary corrections when
> they
> >meddle in the marketplace.  We've had a record number or quarters of good
> >economic performance and only a fool would think that will last forever.
> >The big question is wether the correction will entail a hard landing or a
> >soft landing?
> >
> >Brad
> >
> >On 3/23/07, TN Rhodey <tnrhodey at hotmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > Ed, Reread my post.... no one blamed Bush....are you really that
> dense?
> >I
> > > said our economy was a house of cards.....no blame was even suggested.
> A
> > > little defensive? I did say Brad was discounting the potential problem
> > > looming because he was drinking Bush's cool aid. Again Bush did not
> >cause
> > > this. The lending crisis is not a government issue although it may be
> >the
> > > government (us!) paying for this. Also Bush had no influence on
> lending
> > > guidelines or the problem. This is not a liberal or conservative
> issue.
> > >
> > > Wally
> > >
> > >
> > > >From: Tootle <ekroposki at charter.net>
> > > >Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > >To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
> > > >Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
> > > >Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2007 06:07:51 -0700 (PDT)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >Wally:
> > > >
> > > >      What you have said is particularly true where house values are
> > > >overvalued in anticipation of increasing in value.  I suspect a big
> >time
> > > >shake out coming.  However, you blame Bush.  Come on now, where were
> >the
> > > >Democratic critics a couple of years past.
> > > >
> > > >       Bush's stated intent was to allow anybody who really wanted a
> > > house
> > > >to
> > > >be able to get one.  His ecomomics have helped that goal.  Now it is
> up
> > > to
> > > >them to keep them.
> > > >
> > > >        Not all will.  However, I suspect many will.  The current
> >default
> > > >rate in the sub prime market is quoted as 23%.  Truth is it will go
> up
> >in
> > > a
> > > >recession.  Remember some of the creative sub par financiing was pure
> > > >speculation.
> > > >
> > > >        There will be some creative ways to help prevent defaults,
> but
> > > that
> > > >does not answer your premise, why was the situation permitted.  It is
> a
> > > >general governance issue and legislators of both parties did not want
> >to
> > > >say
> > > >or do anything.
> > > >
> > > >        What is more interesting to look at is the declining value of
> >the
> > > >dollar.  They say inflation is under control.  However, what you get
> >for
> > > >the
> > > >dollar is less.  So the value of some of those homes under duress is
> >not
> > > >the
> > > >same value in dollars as a few years ago.  Hum.  Another way to hide
> > > facts.
> > > >
> > > >        This is not a Bush issue, but the way the politicians and
> press
> > > >hide
> > > >the truth.  If it were a liberal democrat in office, they would be
> > > looking
> > > >elsewere, and so would you.
> > > >
> > > >Ed K
> > > >Greenville, SC, USA
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >TN Rhodey wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Brad, You have been to be busy being a cheer leader for Bush to
> >notice
> > > >our
> > > > > economy is unbalanced. I told you several months ago that the
> >mortgage
> > > >and
> > > > > home industry was "a house of cards and heading for huge
> >correction".
> > > >You
> > > > > responded and said your home values are fine in Memphis .....
> > > > >
> > > > > The largest sub-prime lenders are in trouble and in the last 90
> days
> > > >some
> > > > > 30
> > > > > mortgage banks have closed or pulled out of sub-prime lending. The
> > > other
> > > > > shoe will drop when all the folks with low Interest Only payments,
> > > >balloon
> > > > > 2
> > > > > nds, or ARMs have to refinance and find they can not because they
> >owe
> > > >more
> > > > > than the home is worth. They will be stuck with a rising payment
> >they
> > > >can
> > > > > no
> > > > > longer make. The common trend in home buying has been 100%
> >financing.
> > > In
> > > > > the
> > > > > old days you needed to have 20% or so. Being upside down equity
> wise
> > > in
> > > >a
> > > > > car is bad...evenworse when you are upside down in equity in you
> > > rhome.
> > > > > Many
> > > > > folks are upside down in equity in their home and 2 car payments.
> >Like
> > > i
> > > > > said we are building anice house of cards.
> > > > >
> > > > > Do a google search for "sub prime lending woes".
> > > > >
> > > > > The leaders of companies like New Century maybe looking at jail
> >time.
> > > >This
> > > > > is tied into our overall economy in more ways than most
> understand.
> > > > >
> > > > > Wally
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >>From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > > > >>Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > > >>To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > > >>Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
> > > > >>Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2007 08:48:18 -0500
> > > > >>
> > > > >>Hunker down boys and girls and protect your investments - the sky
> > > isn't
> > > > >>falling but we're going to have a low ceiling for awhile.  Follow
> >any
> > > > >>benchmark you want but this is one of the best predictors out
> there.
> > > The
> > > > >>understatement is "automotive and housing", that is a huge chunk
> of
> > > the
> > > > >>economy and both are going through major corrections. Don't
> believe
> > > that
> > > > >>last sentence, it's boilerplate "the world would be safe if it
> >wasn't
> > > >for
> > > > >>those damn pilots" bullshit.  Brad
> > > > >>
> > > > >>--------------------------------
> > > > >>
> > > > >>    Slowing Economy Takes a Toll On FedEx's Quarterly Results
> > > > >>------------------------------
> > > > >>
> > > > >>FedEx Corp. reported Wednesday that its earnings dropped 1.9% in
> the
> > > >fiscal
> > > > >>third quarter, stung by the slowing economy, lower fuel surcharges
> >and
> > > > >>severe winter weather.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>The package-delivery company, which is seen as a bellwether for
> the
> > > >overall
> > > > >>economy, also lowered its outlook for fiscal fourth-quarter
> >earnings,
> > > > >>tightening both ends of the forecast range by a nickel share.
> FedEx
> > > also
> > > > >>said that, while its long-term goal remains 10% to 15% annual
> growth
> > > in
> > > > >>earnings per share, growth during the coming fiscal year may fall
> > > short
> > > > >>because of the sluggish economy and investments that FedEx expects
> >to
> > > >make
> > > > >>in its business.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>"The U.S. economy grew at a lower rate than we expected in the
> third
> > > > >>quarter, and we saw continued adjustments in the automotive and
> > > housing
> > > > >>markets," FedEx Chairman, President and Chief Executive Fred Smith
> > > said
> > > >in
> > > > >>the press release. "I believe, however, this represents a healthy
> > > > >>transition
> > > > >>for the economy as it phases into a more sustainable growth rate.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>"FedEx is in excellent position to take full advantage of global
> > > > >>economic-growth trends and deliver overall outstanding financial
> > > results
> > > >in
> > > > >>the long run," Mr. Smith said.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>The Memphis, Tenn., company earned $420 million, or $1.35 a share,
> >in
> > > >the
> > > > >>quarter ended Feb. 28, compared with $428 million, or $1.38 a
> share,
> >a
> > > >year
> > > > >>earlier. Revenue rose 7% to $8.59 billion.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>The results, which marked the first profit decline for the
> delivery
> > > >giant
> > > > >>in
> > > > >>more than three years, were at the high end of the $1.20 to $1.35
> a
> > > >share
> > > > >>forecast range the company set in December, when it reported
> > > >second-quarter
> > > > >>results. Earnings topped analysts' forecasts, while revenue missed
> > > > >>expectations. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected, on
> > > average,
> > > > >>earnings of $410.1 million, or $1.33 a share, on revenue of $8.7
> > > >billion.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>FedEx previously said the typical surge in holiday-related freight
> > > >volumes
> > > > >>was "a bit delayed," the latest sign that a slowdown starting in
> the
> > > >summer
> > > > >>and fall at many railroads and trucking companies may be spreading
> >to
> > > > >>package carriers that handle many shipments on the last leg of
> their
> > > > >>journey.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>FedEx's average daily package volume in its express and ground
> > > >businesses
> > > > >>rose 4% in the latest quarter, compared with the year-earlier
> >period,
> > > > >>helped
> > > > >>by growth in international express.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>Revenue in the express business rose 3% to $5.52 billion, and
> >revenue
> > > in
> > > > >>the
> > > > >>ground business increased 12% to $1.52 billion. FedEx's freight
> > > revenue
> > > > >>rose
> > > > >>30% to $1.1 billion. The Kinko's retail-shipping and office-supply
> > > > >>business,
> > > > >>however, continued struggling, with revenue declining 3% to $485
> > > >million.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>FedEx expects to earn between $1.93 and $2.08 a share during the
> > > current
> > > > >>quarter. Its prior guidance had been $1.98 to $2.13 a share.
> >Analysts
> > > > >>polled
> > > > >>by Thomson Financial expect, on average, for the company to earn
> >$2.03
> > > a
> > > > >>share during the quarter.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>Excluding second-quarter costs associated with the new pilot labor
> > > >contract
> > > > >>at the FedEx Express segment, the company expects to earn between
> > > $6.70
> > > >and
> > > > >>$6.85 a share for the year. Its prior guidance had been $6.60 to
> >$6.90
> > > a
> > > > >>share.
> > > > >>
> > > > >>*Wall Street Journal*
> > > > >>
> > > > >>*3/21/2007*
> > > > >>__________________________________________________
> > > > >>Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > > > >
> > > > > _________________________________________________________________
> > > > > 5.5%* 30 year fixed mortgage rate. Good credit refinance. Up to 5
> >free
> > > > > quotes - *Terms
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> https://www2.nextag.com/goto.jsp?product=100000035&url=%2fst.jsp&tm=y&search=mortgage_text_links_88_h2a5d&s=4056&p=5117&disc=y&vers=910
> > > > >
> > > > > __________________________________________________
> > > > > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >--
> > > >View this message in context:
> > > >http://www.nabble.com/Economics-tf3447654.html#a9634414
> > > >Sent from the Rhodes 22 mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
> > > >
> > > >__________________________________________________
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