[Rhodes22-list] Economics

Brad Haslett flybrad at gmail.com
Sun Mar 25 21:22:21 EDT 2007 

Bill,

The TVA and the CORE are quicker at making it.  God is quicker at taking it
away!

Brad

PS - For a small fee the Haslett boys will help you put it back, no
questions about your religion asked!

On 3/25/07, bill davidge <wpdavidge at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> Brad,
>
>    You forgot  one thing   Only GOD ,the TVA and the  CORE can make Lake
> front propriety.
>
>   Regards.
>
>   Bill D
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com>
> To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> Sent: Sunday, March 25, 2007 8:45:24 PM
> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
>
>
> Bill,
>
> Yes, in the long run.  When you're leveraged beyond your cash flow you are
> not an investor, you're a speculator. Real estate behaves like any
> marketable product, it has it's own cycle.  Timing is everything.  Mine
> has
> been excellent, I bought low and gave it to some underserving wife high!
> That is another issue beyond the list's ability to solve.
>
> Brad
>
> On 3/25/07, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
> >
> > 1.  Real Estate is not a commodity.
> >
> > 2.  It can and has gone up forever.
> >
> > Bill Effros
> >
> > Brad Haslett wrote:
> > > Wally,
> > >
> > > You can't legislate away the business cycle.  It is foolish to think
> > that
> > > any commodity can go up forever, real estate included. Too bad for
> those
> > > people who overextended themselves, including the bankers.  Let them
> all
> > > fall on their face and be done with it!   I've been telling everyone
> the
> > > economy was good for the last few years because it has been good for
> the
> > > last few years.  Not once did I ever say it would go on forever.  Our
> > debt
> > > as a percentage of GNP is well manageable, including the cost of the
> > war,
> > > but we can't keep spending on entitlement programs, especially social
> > > security with the coming baby boom retirements, and expect things to
> > stay
> > > healthy. Look at where the money goes!  Our defense spending as a per
> > cent
> > > of GNP ain't Jack Shit compared to entitlements.  Do the math at  on
> > that
> > > before you go ballistic.  I don't wear rose colored glasses, I wear a
> > green
> > > eyeshade (must be that accounting undergrad thing).  Anyone who thinks
> > we
> > > can compete in the global market with our population growing more and
> > more
> > > dependent on the federal government is hiding behind the roses or just
> > > doesn't understand basic macro-economics. The new economic front is
> > India
> > > and China.  They are already looking over their shoulder at
> > Vietnam.  This
> > > is a small globe and any prudent investor hedges his/her bets by
> putting
> > > some money in the places that are kicking our ass. I don't drink
> > Kool-Aid
> > > when it comes to economics, I'm a realist and a history buff.  You
> > should
> > > worry about government spending - every 'nanny' government in the last
> > > century has either failed or changed drastically (think Soviet Union
> and
> > > China in that order).  EuroIslamia is next.  We're probably on the
> > leading
> > > edge of a correction (recession).  That's time to go shopping for
> > bargains -
> > > things are about to go on sale.
> > >
> > > Wally, it would be damned difficult for me to do my career over
> > again.  The
> > > government, in their efforts to save everyone from themselves has
> almost
> > > killed general aviation.  You can't hang around the airport fence as a
> > > teenager and beg for a job.  This development in my industry is
> > pervasive
> > > through out our economy.  We're getting our asses kicked in growth
> rates
> > as
> > > a result. Combine the heavy hand of the federal government with
> > > over-regulating everything and the propensity to over tax and we're
> the
> > > also-ran in the global marketplace. I know you don't like the war but
> > what
> > > would we do with the money we saved?  Give it back to the
> > taxpayers.  Hell
> > > no!  We'd find more 'victims' to spend it on.
> > >
> > > Brad
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On 3/25/07, TN Rhodey <tnrhodey at hotmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > >> Brad,
> > >>
> > >> Maybe the FEDEX financials have you seeing things differently.....
> but
> > >> based
> > >> on the dozens if not hundreds of links you post I would say you drink
> a
> > >> lot
> > >> of cool aid. You have been trying to tell all for years now how great
> > the
> > >> economy is (was?) and we shouldn't worry about the cost of the war or
> > the
> > >> growing debt....it is not a problem.....yeah..yeah...yeah.
> > >>
> > >> I must admit I am in total agreement about not having sympathy for
> > people
> > >> who over extend due to keeping up with the Jone's. I also agree the
> > >> President is given to much credit or blame for the economy. Please
> note
> > >> that
> > >> I made zero reference to Bush in the discussion of housing bust.
> > >>
> > >> I can handle my own spending just fine but it is the government
> > spending
> > >> that worries me more.
> > >>
> > >> Wally
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>> From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > >>> Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > >>> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > >>> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
> > >>> Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2007 07:53:53 -0600
> > >>>
> > >>> Wally,
> > >>>
> > >>> Glad I was busy and on the road for this thread.  When it comes to
> > >>> economics, I don't drink anyone's Kool-Aid but look at the facts and
> > make
> > >>> my
> > >>> own judgements.  Just as the Clinton year,s boom was based on the
> hype
> > of
> > >>> the dot-coms (and unstainable), much of the Bush 43 boom was based
> on
> > >>> Detroit gas-guzzlers and cheap money (thus the real estate
> nonsense).
> > >>> Neither could last forever.  All Presidents take credit for good
> times
> > >>>
> > >> and
> > >>
> > >>> get blamed for bad ones when in fact, Presidents don't have that
> much
> > >>> influence on the market.  This is a good thing!  Bush did some smart
> > >>>
> > >> things
> > >>
> > >>> after 9/11, like cut taxes to spur the economy, and some really dumb
> > >>>
> > >> ones,
> > >>
> > >>> like bail out airlines that should have been allowed to go
> > >>>
> > >> under.  Frankly,
> > >>
> > >>> I have little sympathy for people getting burned for overbuying what
> > they
> > >>> could afford in real estate just I have little sympathy for
> > shareholders
> > >>> who
> > >>> got burned on Enron or WorldCom.  The market is what the market is
> and
> > >>> Presidents and the Congress usually muck-up necessary corrections
> when
> > >>>
> > >> they
> > >>
> > >>> meddle in the marketplace.  We've had a record number or quarters of
> > good
> > >>> economic performance and only a fool would think that will last
> > forever.
> > >>> The big question is wether the correction will entail a hard landing
> > or a
> > >>> soft landing?
> > >>>
> > >>> Brad
> > >>>
> > >>> On 3/23/07, TN Rhodey <tnrhodey at hotmail.com> wrote:
> > >>>
> > >>>> Ed, Reread my post.... no one blamed Bush....are you really that
> > >>>>
> > >> dense?
> > >>
> > >>> I
> > >>>
> > >>>> said our economy was a house of cards.....no blame was even
> > suggested.
> > >>>>
> > >> A
> > >>
> > >>>> little defensive? I did say Brad was discounting the potential
> > problem
> > >>>> looming because he was drinking Bush's cool aid. Again Bush did not
> > >>>>
> > >>> cause
> > >>>
> > >>>> this. The lending crisis is not a government issue although it may
> be
> > >>>>
> > >>> the
> > >>>
> > >>>> government (us!) paying for this. Also Bush had no influence on
> > >>>>
> > >> lending
> > >>
> > >>>> guidelines or the problem. This is not a liberal or conservative
> > >>>>
> > >> issue.
> > >>
> > >>>> Wally
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> From: Tootle <ekroposki at charter.net>
> > >>>>> Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > >>>>> To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
> > >>>>> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
> > >>>>> Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2007 06:07:51 -0700 (PDT)
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> Wally:
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>      What you have said is particularly true where house values
> are
> > >>>>> overvalued in anticipation of increasing in value.  I suspect a
> big
> > >>>>>
> > >>> time
> > >>>
> > >>>>> shake out coming.  However, you blame Bush.  Come on now, where
> were
> > >>>>>
> > >>> the
> > >>>
> > >>>>> Democratic critics a couple of years past.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>       Bush's stated intent was to allow anybody who really wanted
> a
> > >>>>>
> > >>>> house
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> to
> > >>>>> be able to get one.  His ecomomics have helped that goal.  Now it
> is
> > >>>>>
> > >> up
> > >>
> > >>>> to
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> them to keep them.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>        Not all will.  However, I suspect many will.  The current
> > >>>>>
> > >>> default
> > >>>
> > >>>>> rate in the sub prime market is quoted as 23%.  Truth is it will
> go
> > >>>>>
> > >> up
> > >>
> > >>> in
> > >>>
> > >>>> a
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> recession.  Remember some of the creative sub par financiing was
> > pure
> > >>>>> speculation.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>        There will be some creative ways to help prevent defaults,
> > >>>>>
> > >> but
> > >>
> > >>>> that
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> does not answer your premise, why was the situation permitted.  It
> > is
> > >>>>>
> > >> a
> > >>
> > >>>>> general governance issue and legislators of both parties did not
> > want
> > >>>>>
> > >>> to
> > >>>
> > >>>>> say
> > >>>>> or do anything.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>        What is more interesting to look at is the declining value
> of
> > >>>>>
> > >>> the
> > >>>
> > >>>>> dollar.  They say inflation is under control.  However, what you
> get
> > >>>>>
> > >>> for
> > >>>
> > >>>>> the
> > >>>>> dollar is less.  So the value of some of those homes under duress
> is
> > >>>>>
> > >>> not
> > >>>
> > >>>>> the
> > >>>>> same value in dollars as a few years ago.  Hum.  Another way to
> hide
> > >>>>>
> > >>>> facts.
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>        This is not a Bush issue, but the way the politicians and
> > >>>>>
> > >> press
> > >>
> > >>>>> hide
> > >>>>> the truth.  If it were a liberal democrat in office, they would be
> > >>>>>
> > >>>> looking
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> elsewere, and so would you.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> Ed K
> > >>>>> Greenville, SC, USA
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> TN Rhodey wrote:
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>> Brad, You have been to be busy being a cheer leader for Bush to
> > >>>>>>
> > >>> notice
> > >>>
> > >>>>> our
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>> economy is unbalanced. I told you several months ago that the
> > >>>>>>
> > >>> mortgage
> > >>>
> > >>>>> and
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>> home industry was "a house of cards and heading for huge
> > >>>>>>
> > >>> correction".
> > >>>
> > >>>>> You
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>> responded and said your home values are fine in Memphis .....
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> The largest sub-prime lenders are in trouble and in the last 90
> > >>>>>>
> > >> days
> > >>
> > >>>>> some
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>> 30
> > >>>>>> mortgage banks have closed or pulled out of sub-prime lending.
> The
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>> other
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>> shoe will drop when all the folks with low Interest Only
> payments,
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>> balloon
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>> 2
> > >>>>>> nds, or ARMs have to refinance and find they can not because they
> > >>>>>>
> > >>> owe
> > >>>
> > >>>>> more
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>> than the home is worth. They will be stuck with a rising payment
> > >>>>>>
> > >>> they
> > >>>
> > >>>>> can
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>> no
> > >>>>>> longer make. The common trend in home buying has been 100%
> > >>>>>>
> > >>> financing.
> > >>>
> > >>>> In
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>> the
> > >>>>>> old days you needed to have 20% or so. Being upside down equity
> > >>>>>>
> > >> wise
> > >>
> > >>>> in
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> a
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>> car is bad...evenworse when you are upside down in equity in you
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>> rhome.
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>> Many
> > >>>>>> folks are upside down in equity in their home and 2 car payments.
> > >>>>>>
> > >>> Like
> > >>>
> > >>>> i
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>> said we are building anice house of cards.
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> Do a google search for "sub prime lending woes".
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> The leaders of companies like New Century maybe looking at jail
> > >>>>>>
> > >>> time.
> > >>>
> > >>>>> This
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>> is tied into our overall economy in more ways than most
> > >>>>>>
> > >> understand.
> > >>
> > >>>>>> Wally
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > >>>>>>> Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > >>>>>>> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > >>>>>>> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
> > >>>>>>> Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2007 08:48:18 -0500
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> Hunker down boys and girls and protect your investments - the
> sky
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>> isn't
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> falling but we're going to have a low ceiling for
> awhile.  Follow
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> any
> > >>>
> > >>>>>>> benchmark you want but this is one of the best predictors out
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> there.
> > >>
> > >>>> The
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> understatement is "automotive and housing", that is a huge chunk
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> of
> > >>
> > >>>> the
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> economy and both are going through major corrections. Don't
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> believe
> > >>
> > >>>> that
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> last sentence, it's boilerplate "the world would be safe if it
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> wasn't
> > >>>
> > >>>>> for
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> those damn pilots" bullshit.  Brad
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> --------------------------------
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>>    Slowing Economy Takes a Toll On FedEx's Quarterly Results
> > >>>>>>> ------------------------------
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> FedEx Corp. reported Wednesday that its earnings dropped 1.9% in
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> the
> > >>
> > >>>>> fiscal
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> third quarter, stung by the slowing economy, lower fuel
> surcharges
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> and
> > >>>
> > >>>>>>> severe winter weather.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> The package-delivery company, which is seen as a bellwether for
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> the
> > >>
> > >>>>> overall
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> economy, also lowered its outlook for fiscal fourth-quarter
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> earnings,
> > >>>
> > >>>>>>> tightening both ends of the forecast range by a nickel share.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> FedEx
> > >>
> > >>>> also
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> said that, while its long-term goal remains 10% to 15% annual
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> growth
> > >>
> > >>>> in
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> earnings per share, growth during the coming fiscal year may
> fall
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>> short
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> because of the sluggish economy and investments that FedEx
> expects
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> to
> > >>>
> > >>>>> make
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> in its business.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> "The U.S. economy grew at a lower rate than we expected in the
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> third
> > >>
> > >>>>>>> quarter, and we saw continued adjustments in the automotive and
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>> housing
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> markets," FedEx Chairman, President and Chief Executive Fred
> Smith
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>> said
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> in
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> the press release. "I believe, however, this represents a
> healthy
> > >>>>>>> transition
> > >>>>>>> for the economy as it phases into a more sustainable growth
> rate.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> "FedEx is in excellent position to take full advantage of global
> > >>>>>>> economic-growth trends and deliver overall outstanding financial
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>> results
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> in
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> the long run," Mr. Smith said.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> The Memphis, Tenn., company earned $420 million, or $1.35 a
> share,
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> in
> > >>>
> > >>>>> the
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> quarter ended Feb. 28, compared with $428 million, or $1.38 a
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> share,
> > >>
> > >>> a
> > >>>
> > >>>>> year
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> earlier. Revenue rose 7% to $8.59 billion.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> The results, which marked the first profit decline for the
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> delivery
> > >>
> > >>>>> giant
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> in
> > >>>>>>> more than three years, were at the high end of the $1.20 to
> $1.35
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> a
> > >>
> > >>>>> share
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> forecast range the company set in December, when it reported
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>> second-quarter
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> results. Earnings topped analysts' forecasts, while revenue
> missed
> > >>>>>>> expectations. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected, on
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>> average,
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> earnings of $410.1 million, or $1.33 a share, on revenue of $8.7
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>> billion.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> FedEx previously said the typical surge in holiday-related
> freight
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>> volumes
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> was "a bit delayed," the latest sign that a slowdown starting in
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> the
> > >>
> > >>>>> summer
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> and fall at many railroads and trucking companies may be
> spreading
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> to
> > >>>
> > >>>>>>> package carriers that handle many shipments on the last leg of
> > >>>>>>>
> > >> their
> > >>
> > >>>>>>> journey.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> FedEx's average daily package volume in its express and ground
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>> businesses
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> rose 4% in the latest quarter, compared with the year-earlier
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> period,
> > >>>
> > >>>>>>> helped
> > >>>>>>> by growth in international express.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> Revenue in the express business rose 3% to $5.52 billion, and
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> revenue
> > >>>
> > >>>> in
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> the
> > >>>>>>> ground business increased 12% to $1.52 billion. FedEx's freight
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>> revenue
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> rose
> > >>>>>>> 30% to $1.1 billion. The Kinko's retail-shipping and
> office-supply
> > >>>>>>> business,
> > >>>>>>> however, continued struggling, with revenue declining 3% to $485
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>> million.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> FedEx expects to earn between $1.93 and $2.08 a share during the
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>> current
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> quarter. Its prior guidance had been $1.98 to $2.13 a share.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> Analysts
> > >>>
> > >>>>>>> polled
> > >>>>>>> by Thomson Financial expect, on average, for the company to earn
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> $2.03
> > >>>
> > >>>> a
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> share during the quarter.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> Excluding second-quarter costs associated with the new pilot
> labor
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>> contract
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> at the FedEx Express segment, the company expects to earn
> between
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>> $6.70
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> and
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>> $6.85 a share for the year. Its prior guidance had been $6.60 to
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>> $6.90
> > >>>
> > >>>> a
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>>> share.
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> *Wall Street Journal*
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> *3/21/2007*
> > >>>>>>> __________________________________________________
> > >>>>>>> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > >>>>>>>
> > >>>>>> _________________________________________________________________
> > >>>>>> 5.5%* 30 year fixed mortgage rate. Good credit refinance. Up to 5
> > >>>>>>
> > >>> free
> > >>>
> > >>>>>> quotes - *Terms
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>>
> > >>
> >
> https://www2.nextag.com/goto.jsp?product=100000035&url=%2fst.jsp&tm=y&search=mortgage_text_links_88_h2a5d&s=4056&p=5117&disc=y&vers=910
> > >>
> > >>>>>> __________________________________________________
> > >>>>>> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>> --
> > >>>>> View this message in context:
> > >>>>> http://www.nabble.com/Economics-tf3447654.html#a9634414
> > >>>>> Sent from the Rhodes 22 mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> __________________________________________________
> > >>>>> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > >>>>>
> > >>>> _________________________________________________________________
> > >>>> Live Search Maps � find all the local information you need, right
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> > >>>>
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> > >>>
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> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>> __________________________________________________
> > >>>> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>> __________________________________________________
> > >>> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > >>>
> > >> _________________________________________________________________
> > >> Exercise your brain! Try Flexicon.
> > >>
> > >>
> >
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> > >>
> > >>
> > >> __________________________________________________
> > >> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > >>
> > >>
> > > __________________________________________________
> > > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > >
> > >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
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>
> ____________________________________________________________________________________
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