[Rhodes22-list] Economics
Rik Sandberg
sanderico at earthlink.net
Sat Mar 24 23:14:38 EDT 2007
Bill,
> 2. It can and has gone up forever.
Probably not if you bought it in the last couple years!! I assume you
have been smart enough to have avoided that. And, yes, it may go up
again ....... but I wouldn't hold my breath while I wait.
Wally,
Go ahead, spread the gloom and doom ..... you aren't alone. I've been
preaching this bubble's bursting for a couple years now.
Rik
Bill Effros wrote:
> 1. Real Estate is not a commodity.
>
> 2. It can and has gone up forever.
>
> Bill Effros
>
> Brad Haslett wrote:
>
>> Wally,
>>
>> You can't legislate away the business cycle. It is foolish to think that
>> any commodity can go up forever, real estate included. Too bad for those
>> people who overextended themselves, including the bankers. Let them all
>> fall on their face and be done with it! I've been telling everyone the
>> economy was good for the last few years because it has been good for the
>> last few years. Not once did I ever say it would go on forever. Our debt
>> as a percentage of GNP is well manageable, including the cost of the war,
>> but we can't keep spending on entitlement programs, especially social
>> security with the coming baby boom retirements, and expect things to stay
>> healthy. Look at where the money goes! Our defense spending as a per cent
>> of GNP ain't Jack Shit compared to entitlements. Do the math at on that
>> before you go ballistic. I don't wear rose colored glasses, I wear a green
>> eyeshade (must be that accounting undergrad thing). Anyone who thinks we
>> can compete in the global market with our population growing more and more
>> dependent on the federal government is hiding behind the roses or just
>> doesn't understand basic macro-economics. The new economic front is India
>> and China. They are already looking over their shoulder at Vietnam. This
>> is a small globe and any prudent investor hedges his/her bets by putting
>> some money in the places that are kicking our ass. I don't drink Kool-Aid
>> when it comes to economics, I'm a realist and a history buff. You should
>> worry about government spending - every 'nanny' government in the last
>> century has either failed or changed drastically (think Soviet Union and
>> China in that order). EuroIslamia is next. We're probably on the leading
>> edge of a correction (recession). That's time to go shopping for bargains -
>> things are about to go on sale.
>>
>> Wally, it would be damned difficult for me to do my career over again. The
>> government, in their efforts to save everyone from themselves has almost
>> killed general aviation. You can't hang around the airport fence as a
>> teenager and beg for a job. This development in my industry is pervasive
>> through out our economy. We're getting our asses kicked in growth rates as
>> a result. Combine the heavy hand of the federal government with
>> over-regulating everything and the propensity to over tax and we're the
>> also-ran in the global marketplace. I know you don't like the war but what
>> would we do with the money we saved? Give it back to the taxpayers. Hell
>> no! We'd find more 'victims' to spend it on.
>>
>> Brad
>>
>>
>>
>> On 3/25/07, TN Rhodey <tnrhodey at hotmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>>> Brad,
>>>
>>> Maybe the FEDEX financials have you seeing things differently..... but
>>> based
>>> on the dozens if not hundreds of links you post I would say you drink a
>>> lot
>>> of cool aid. You have been trying to tell all for years now how great the
>>> economy is (was?) and we shouldn't worry about the cost of the war or the
>>> growing debt....it is not a problem.....yeah..yeah...yeah.
>>>
>>> I must admit I am in total agreement about not having sympathy for people
>>> who over extend due to keeping up with the Jone's. I also agree the
>>> President is given to much credit or blame for the economy. Please note
>>> that
>>> I made zero reference to Bush in the discussion of housing bust.
>>>
>>> I can handle my own spending just fine but it is the government spending
>>> that worries me more.
>>>
>>> Wally
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>> From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
>>>> Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>>>> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>>>> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
>>>> Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2007 07:53:53 -0600
>>>>
>>>> Wally,
>>>>
>>>> Glad I was busy and on the road for this thread. When it comes to
>>>> economics, I don't drink anyone's Kool-Aid but look at the facts and make
>>>> my
>>>> own judgements. Just as the Clinton year,s boom was based on the hype of
>>>> the dot-coms (and unstainable), much of the Bush 43 boom was based on
>>>> Detroit gas-guzzlers and cheap money (thus the real estate nonsense).
>>>> Neither could last forever. All Presidents take credit for good times
>>>>
>>>>
>>> and
>>>
>>>
>>>> get blamed for bad ones when in fact, Presidents don't have that much
>>>> influence on the market. This is a good thing! Bush did some smart
>>>>
>>>>
>>> things
>>>
>>>
>>>> after 9/11, like cut taxes to spur the economy, and some really dumb
>>>>
>>>>
>>> ones,
>>>
>>>
>>>> like bail out airlines that should have been allowed to go
>>>>
>>>>
>>> under. Frankly,
>>>
>>>
>>>> I have little sympathy for people getting burned for overbuying what they
>>>> could afford in real estate just I have little sympathy for shareholders
>>>> who
>>>> got burned on Enron or WorldCom. The market is what the market is and
>>>> Presidents and the Congress usually muck-up necessary corrections when
>>>>
>>>>
>>> they
>>>
>>>
>>>> meddle in the marketplace. We've had a record number or quarters of good
>>>> economic performance and only a fool would think that will last forever.
>>>> The big question is wether the correction will entail a hard landing or a
>>>> soft landing?
>>>>
>>>> Brad
>>>>
>>>> On 3/23/07, TN Rhodey <tnrhodey at hotmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Ed, Reread my post.... no one blamed Bush....are you really that
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>> dense?
>>>
>>>
>>>> I
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> said our economy was a house of cards.....no blame was even suggested.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>> A
>>>
>>>
>>>>> little defensive? I did say Brad was discounting the potential problem
>>>>> looming because he was drinking Bush's cool aid. Again Bush did not
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>> cause
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> this. The lending crisis is not a government issue although it may be
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>> the
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> government (us!) paying for this. Also Bush had no influence on
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>> lending
>>>
>>>
>>>>> guidelines or the problem. This is not a liberal or conservative
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>> issue.
>>>
>>>
>>>>> Wally
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> From: Tootle <ekroposki at charter.net>
>>>>>> Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>>>>>> To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
>>>>>> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
>>>>>> Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2007 06:07:51 -0700 (PDT)
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Wally:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> What you have said is particularly true where house values are
>>>>>> overvalued in anticipation of increasing in value. I suspect a big
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>> time
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> shake out coming. However, you blame Bush. Come on now, where were
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>> the
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> Democratic critics a couple of years past.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Bush's stated intent was to allow anybody who really wanted a
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>> house
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> to
>>>>>> be able to get one. His ecomomics have helped that goal. Now it is
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>> up
>>>
>>>
>>>>> to
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> them to keep them.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Not all will. However, I suspect many will. The current
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>> default
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> rate in the sub prime market is quoted as 23%. Truth is it will go
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>> up
>>>
>>>
>>>> in
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> a
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> recession. Remember some of the creative sub par financiing was pure
>>>>>> speculation.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> There will be some creative ways to help prevent defaults,
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>> but
>>>
>>>
>>>>> that
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> does not answer your premise, why was the situation permitted. It is
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>> a
>>>
>>>
>>>>>> general governance issue and legislators of both parties did not want
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>> to
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> say
>>>>>> or do anything.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> What is more interesting to look at is the declining value of
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>> the
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> dollar. They say inflation is under control. However, what you get
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>> for
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> the
>>>>>> dollar is less. So the value of some of those homes under duress is
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>> not
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> the
>>>>>> same value in dollars as a few years ago. Hum. Another way to hide
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>> facts.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> This is not a Bush issue, but the way the politicians and
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>> press
>>>
>>>
>>>>>> hide
>>>>>> the truth. If it were a liberal democrat in office, they would be
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>> looking
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> elsewere, and so would you.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ed K
>>>>>> Greenville, SC, USA
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> TN Rhodey wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Brad, You have been to be busy being a cheer leader for Bush to
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>> notice
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> our
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> economy is unbalanced. I told you several months ago that the
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>> mortgage
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> and
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> home industry was "a house of cards and heading for huge
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>> correction".
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> You
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> responded and said your home values are fine in Memphis .....
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The largest sub-prime lenders are in trouble and in the last 90
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>> days
>>>
>>>
>>>>>> some
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 30
>>>>>>> mortgage banks have closed or pulled out of sub-prime lending. The
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>> other
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>> shoe will drop when all the folks with low Interest Only payments,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> balloon
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2
>>>>>>> nds, or ARMs have to refinance and find they can not because they
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>> owe
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> more
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> than the home is worth. They will be stuck with a rising payment
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>> they
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> can
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> no
>>>>>>> longer make. The common trend in home buying has been 100%
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>> financing.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> In
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>> old days you needed to have 20% or so. Being upside down equity
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>> wise
>>>
>>>
>>>>> in
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> a
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> car is bad...evenworse when you are upside down in equity in you
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>> rhome.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>> Many
>>>>>>> folks are upside down in equity in their home and 2 car payments.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>> Like
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> i
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>> said we are building anice house of cards.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Do a google search for "sub prime lending woes".
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The leaders of companies like New Century maybe looking at jail
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>> time.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> This
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> is tied into our overall economy in more ways than most
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>> understand.
>>>
>>>
>>>>>>> Wally
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
>>>>>>>> Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>>>>>>>> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
>>>>>>>> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
>>>>>>>> Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2007 08:48:18 -0500
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Hunker down boys and girls and protect your investments - the sky
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>> isn't
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> falling but we're going to have a low ceiling for awhile. Follow
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> any
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>> benchmark you want but this is one of the best predictors out
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> there.
>>>
>>>
>>>>> The
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> understatement is "automotive and housing", that is a huge chunk
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> of
>>>
>>>
>>>>> the
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> economy and both are going through major corrections. Don't
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> believe
>>>
>>>
>>>>> that
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> last sentence, it's boilerplate "the world would be safe if it
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> wasn't
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> for
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> those damn pilots" bullshit. Brad
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> --------------------------------
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Slowing Economy Takes a Toll On FedEx's Quarterly Results
>>>>>>>> ------------------------------
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> FedEx Corp. reported Wednesday that its earnings dropped 1.9% in
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> the
>>>
>>>
>>>>>> fiscal
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> third quarter, stung by the slowing economy, lower fuel surcharges
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> and
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>> severe winter weather.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The package-delivery company, which is seen as a bellwether for
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> the
>>>
>>>
>>>>>> overall
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> economy, also lowered its outlook for fiscal fourth-quarter
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> earnings,
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>> tightening both ends of the forecast range by a nickel share.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> FedEx
>>>
>>>
>>>>> also
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> said that, while its long-term goal remains 10% to 15% annual
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> growth
>>>
>>>
>>>>> in
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> earnings per share, growth during the coming fiscal year may fall
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>> short
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> because of the sluggish economy and investments that FedEx expects
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> to
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> make
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> in its business.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> "The U.S. economy grew at a lower rate than we expected in the
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> third
>>>
>>>
>>>>>>>> quarter, and we saw continued adjustments in the automotive and
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>> housing
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> markets," FedEx Chairman, President and Chief Executive Fred Smith
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>> said
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> in
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> the press release. "I believe, however, this represents a healthy
>>>>>>>> transition
>>>>>>>> for the economy as it phases into a more sustainable growth rate.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> "FedEx is in excellent position to take full advantage of global
>>>>>>>> economic-growth trends and deliver overall outstanding financial
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>> results
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> in
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> the long run," Mr. Smith said.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The Memphis, Tenn., company earned $420 million, or $1.35 a share,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> in
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> the
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> quarter ended Feb. 28, compared with $428 million, or $1.38 a
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> share,
>>>
>>>
>>>> a
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> year
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> earlier. Revenue rose 7% to $8.59 billion.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The results, which marked the first profit decline for the
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> delivery
>>>
>>>
>>>>>> giant
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> in
>>>>>>>> more than three years, were at the high end of the $1.20 to $1.35
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> a
>>>
>>>
>>>>>> share
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> forecast range the company set in December, when it reported
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>> second-quarter
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> results. Earnings topped analysts' forecasts, while revenue missed
>>>>>>>> expectations. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected, on
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>> average,
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> earnings of $410.1 million, or $1.33 a share, on revenue of $8.7
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>> billion.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> FedEx previously said the typical surge in holiday-related freight
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>> volumes
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> was "a bit delayed," the latest sign that a slowdown starting in
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> the
>>>
>>>
>>>>>> summer
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> and fall at many railroads and trucking companies may be spreading
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> to
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>> package carriers that handle many shipments on the last leg of
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>> their
>>>
>>>
>>>>>>>> journey.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> FedEx's average daily package volume in its express and ground
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>> businesses
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> rose 4% in the latest quarter, compared with the year-earlier
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> period,
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>> helped
>>>>>>>> by growth in international express.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Revenue in the express business rose 3% to $5.52 billion, and
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> revenue
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> in
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>> ground business increased 12% to $1.52 billion. FedEx's freight
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>> revenue
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> rose
>>>>>>>> 30% to $1.1 billion. The Kinko's retail-shipping and office-supply
>>>>>>>> business,
>>>>>>>> however, continued struggling, with revenue declining 3% to $485
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>> million.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> FedEx expects to earn between $1.93 and $2.08 a share during the
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>> current
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> quarter. Its prior guidance had been $1.98 to $2.13 a share.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> Analysts
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>> polled
>>>>>>>> by Thomson Financial expect, on average, for the company to earn
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> $2.03
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> a
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> share during the quarter.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Excluding second-quarter costs associated with the new pilot labor
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>> contract
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> at the FedEx Express segment, the company expects to earn between
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>> $6.70
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> and
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> $6.85 a share for the year. Its prior guidance had been $6.60 to
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>> $6.90
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> a
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> share.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> *Wall Street Journal*
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> *3/21/2007*
>>>>>>>> __________________________________________________
>>>>>>>> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> _________________________________________________________________
>>>>>>> 5.5%* 30 year fixed mortgage rate. Good credit refinance. Up to 5
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>> free
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>> quotes - *Terms
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>> https://www2.nextag.com/goto.jsp?product=100000035&url=%2fst.jsp&tm=y&search=mortgage_text_links_88_h2a5d&s=4056&p=5117&disc=y&vers=910
>>>
>>>
>>>>>>> __________________________________________________
>>>>>>> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> View this message in context:
>>>>>> http://www.nabble.com/Economics-tf3447654.html#a9634414
>>>>>> Sent from the Rhodes 22 mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> __________________________________________________
>>>>>> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>> _________________________________________________________________
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>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>> you
>>>>
>>>>
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>>>>>
>>>>>
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>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
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