[Rhodes22-list] Economics

Brad Haslett flybrad at gmail.com
Tue Mar 27 12:30:36 EDT 2007 

Mike,

Funny!  You solve the world's problems while I go get the oil changed on
Fan's car.  Good Luck!

Brad


On 3/27/07, Michael D. Weisner <mweisner at ebsmed.com> wrote:
>
> Brad,
>
> I think that you just merged this thread with the Herb Meyers thread (A
> Global Intelligence Briefing For CEOs).  Now I understand why the
> birthrates
> have declined so dramatically in some countries.
>
> Mike
> s/v Shanghai'd Summer ('81)
> Nissequogue River, NY
>
> From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com> Tuesday, March 27, 2007 12:07 PM
> Hank,
>
> No love lost here for brokers, I got sued by one a few years back because
> she backed out of a deal and wanted her earnest money back.  "What part of
> 'earnest' don't you understand?", was my reply.  She sued the piss out of
> me
> and my broker, a personal friend, and we settled out of court because it
> was
> the least expensive and painless way to handle the matter.  I filed a
> complaint with the Tennessee Real Estate Commission and learned what a
> useless outfit that bunch is - the foxes guarding the chickens.  Yea,
> these
> people were scammed, but the medicine (more government) is worse than the
> disease.  If we want to legislate the problem away, let's pass laws
> against
> stupidity.  I've always advocated a national IQ test for breeding -don't
> score at least three digits you get neutered!  Seriously, I think this
> whole
> thing will wash out and rational life will get back to normal.  People
> have
> short memories.  We've been down this road before.
>
> Brad
>
>
> On 3/27/07, Hank <hnw555 at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Brad,
> >
> > Not all were speculating, or at least they didn't realize it.  Many
> folks
> > were fed misleading information by unscrupulous brokers whom they
> trusted
> > to
> > have their best interests at heart.  They were scammed just as much as
> > folks
> > conned into investing in pyramid schemes and the actions of the brokers
> > should be just as illegal.
> >
> > Hank
> >
> >
> > On 3/27/07, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > Mike,
> > >
> > > Something I never understood is how can anyone think that real estate
> > can
> > > go
> > > up at rates above the general economy forever.  Bill E, our resident
> > > expert
> > > on real estate, is correct in that it always goes up, IN THE LONG
> > > TERM.  You
> > > have to have enough cash on hand to cover your bets if you bet
> > > wrong.  Real
> > > estate is no different than any other economic issue. I feel sorry for
> > > these
> > > people but they were speculating, not investing.  If we're going to
> pass
> > > laws to protect speculators, hell, I'm ready to start shopping for
> > > marginal
> > > oil wells again.
> > >
> > > Brad
> > >
> > >
> > > On 3/27/07, Michael D. Weisner <mweisner at ebsmed.com> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hank,
> > > >
> > > > Unfortunately, the situation stretches to all home buyers.  Senator
> > > Chuck
> > > > Schumer recently pleaded for tougher regulation of lenders here in
> NY
> > > > (
> > > >
> > >
> >
> http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny--schumer-mortgager0325mar25,0,6895247.story?coll=ny-region-apnewyork
> > > > ).
> > > > No group of borrowers is immune to this kind of scheme.  There are
> > > > terrible
> > > > stories of recent retirees who were persuaded to "buy up" to
> luxurious
> > > > townhomes using loans that were "too good to be true" and indeed
> > > > were!  They
> > > > have now lost valuable equity at a time when they cannot really
> afford
> > > to.
> > > > Many are forced to return to work just to keep their homes!
> > > >
> > > > Although I am a believer in "less government is better," I realize
> > that
> > > > these promoters are so unethical and the "marks" are so gullible
> that
> > if
> > > > we
> > > > can't educate "the people," we may actually need to regulate the
> > > industry
> > > > further.
> > > >
> > > > How much is that new sailboat?  And the loan is how affordable?  No
> > > > thanks,
> > > > I'll keep my R22 not only because of its great sailing
> characteristics
> > > but
> > > > also because IT IS PAID FOR!
> > > >
> > > > Mike
> > > > s/v Shanghai'd Summer ('81)
> > > > Nissequogue River, NY
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > From: "Hank" <hnw555 at gmail.com> Tuesday, March 27, 2007 10:01 AM
> > > > You'll love this story from the Wahington Post that highlights a
> woman
> > > who
> > > > is in tears, but she is losing her $410,000 home that she bought
> with
> > an
> > > > income of 28,800 a year.  Obviously, she was pretty foolish to think
> > she
> > > > could afford it, but the realtor and the mortgage broker should both
> > go
> > > to
> > > > jail for fraud in my opinion for cinvincing her that she could swing
> > it.
> > > >
> > > > I really believe there should be some form of civil or criminal
> > > penalties
> > > > for brokers who act this way.  People go to them expecting sound
> > advice,
> > > > which many do give.  However, there are some that will say anything
> to
> > > > ensure that they get their commission check and while it may be
> > > > technically
> > > > legal, it shouldn't be.
> > > >
> > > > Hank
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/25/AR2007032501323.html
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > *Foreclosure Wave Bears Down on Immigrants*
> > > >
> > > > Economic Success Story Turns Sour as Thousands May Face Losing Homes
> > > >
> > > > *By Kirstin
> > > > Downey<
> http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/kirstin+downey/>
> > > > *
> > > >
> > > > Washington Post Staff Writer
> > > > Monday, March 26, 2007; Page A01
> > > >
> > > > Immigrants are emerging as among the first victims of a growing wave
> > of
> > > > home
> > > > foreclosures in the Washington area as mortgage lending problems
> > > multiply
> > > > locally and across the country.
> > > >
> > > > Nationally, 375,000 high-interest-rate loans were made to Hispanics
> in
> > > > 2005,
> > > > and nearly 73,000 of them are likely to go into foreclosure, said
> > > Aracely
> > > > Paname?o, director of Latino affairs for the Center for Responsible
> > > > Lending.
> > > > About 1.1 million homes in the United States are expected to go into
> > > > foreclosure in the next six years, and many native-born Americans
> are
> > > > likely
> > > > to be stuck with burdensome loans. But immigrants are getting hit
> > first
> > > in
> > > > part because their incomes tend to be lower and many have lost
> > > > construction
> > > > jobs.
> > > >
> > > > Homeownership rates among immigrants surged in the first half of the
> > > > decade,
> > > > making their prosperity an economic success story. Now it is
> becoming
> > > > apparent that many people managed to buy homes in an inflated real
> > > estate
> > > > market by turning to unusual new mortgages only now receiving
> scrutiny
> > > > from
> > > > regulators and legislators. Many of these loans start with
> attractive
> > > low
> > > > "teaser" rates but feature payments that can suddenly increase.
> > > >
> > > > Unfamiliar with the U.S. mortgage market, unable to speak or read
> > > English
> > > > well and vulnerable to the blandishments of real estate
> professionals
> > > who
> > > > told them property values always rise, many immigrants are
> struggling
> > to
> > > > deal with high mortgage payments as their homes sag in value, making
> > it
> > > > harder to escape the loans by selling.
> > > >
> > > > Tysons Corner mortgage broker Jose Luis Semidey, who has a popular
> > > > Spanish-language real estate talk show on Radio Universal, is being
> > > > deluged
> > > > with calls from desperate homeowners who are falling behind on their
> > > > mortgages. The calls started in late 2005 and have steadily risen;
> he
> > > now
> > > > receives 40 to 50 calls a day from throughout the area.
> > > >
> > > > "I see more coming," Semidey said.
> > > >
> > > > Paname?o agreed. "I'm being flooded by phone calls from throughout
> the
> > > > country from people begging for help," he said. "The best I can do
> is
> > > > refer
> > > > people to attorneys to get assistance."
> > > >
> > > > Nahid Azimi, who immigrated to the United States from Afghanistan 22
> > > years
> > > > ago, recently stood in the upstairs hallway of her home in Loudoun
> > > County,
> > > > silently sobbing as she removed the last of her personal items from
> > the
> > > > $410,000 townhouse in South Riding she bought with pride last
> summer.
> > > She
> > > > said she was persuaded to buy the house by an Afghan real estate
> agent
> > > she
> > > > considered a friend and by an Afghan mortgage broker who promised to
> > get
> > > > her
> > > > a good loan.
> > > >
> > > > Instead, Azimi, a cashier at Giant who makes $2,400 a month, found
> > > herself
> > > > strapped into a no-down-payment loan with payments of $3,800 a
> month.
> > > She
> > > > knew it would be impossible to make the payments, but the mortgage
> > > broker
> > > > promised to refinance her loan to make it more affordable. Azimi
> > > couldn't
> > > > qualify for the refinance, however, so she got a second job to try
> to
> > > > cover
> > > > the costs, borrowed money from her friends and tried unsuccessfully
> to
> > > > sell
> > > > the house. Then one day in November, she collapsed at work, in part
> > > > because
> > > > of the stress.
> > > >
> > > > Today, she will call the loan servicing company and offer to give
> back
> > > the
> > > > keys.
> > > >
> > > > "I can't do it anymore," said Azimi, 44, a U.S. citizen. "I cannot
> > > afford
> > > > it, and I don't want them to come one day and put my stuff on the
> > > street."
> > > >
> > > > Some lenders allowed people to take out loans without verifying
> their
> > > > income
> > > > or their ability to repay. Traditionally, lenders have made loans
> only
> > > to
> > > > people they thought could pay them back. Banking regulations forced
> > > > lenders
> > > > to adhere to strict lending policies, not just for the protection of
> > > > borrowers but also to protect bank depositors, who would be hurt if
> > the
> > > > banks collapsed. But in recent years, lenders have found alternative
> > > > sources
> > > > of financing for the loans by turning to investors who bought the
> > loans
> > > as
> > > > packaged securities. These kinds of loans are not supervised in the
> > same
> > > > ways as loans made by banks and held in their portfolios.
> > > >
> > > > Laissez-faire regulatory policies made other government agencies
> > > reluctant
> > > > to intervene.
> > > >
> > > > "The market changed so investors were setting the standards for
> > > qualifying
> > > > people for mortgage lending," said Allen Fishbein, director of
> housing
> > > and
> > > > credit policy at the Consumer Federation of America. "They had a
> > higher
> > > > appetite for risk, which led to the lax standards that are resulting
> > in
> > > > delinquencies. The regulators should have been more concerned about
> > > > protecting consumers than about protecting financial institutions."
> > > >
> > > > Officials at the Mortgage Bankers Association were unavailable for
> > > > comment.
> > > > In previous interviews, they have said that loosened credit policies
> > > > allowed
> > > > more families to become homeowners and that reputable lenders do not
> > > make
> > > > loans that cannot be repaid.
> > > >
> > > > Many immigrants initially welcomed the lending changes as the only
> way
> > > > they
> > > > could afford to buy.
> > > >
> > > > Places where immigrants cluster have been particularly hard-hit.
> > Semidey
> > > > said that the most calls are coming from Manassas, Woodbridge and
> Dale
> > > > Cityin
> > > > Virginia and Gaithersburg, Germantown, Capitol Heights and Langley
> > Park
> > > in
> > > > Maryland. But one recent caller was the owner of a $1.5 million home
> > in
> > > > McLean, a restaurateur who has seen her business slide in recent
> > months
> > > as
> > > > the slowdown in the construction industry pinches the pocketbooks of
> > her
> > > > Latino patrons. Another was an illiterate carpenter who bought a
> > > $750,000
> > > > house in Ashburn Village, Semidey said.
> > > >
> > > > Francisco Santos, 31, who lays tile, makes $60,000 a year by working
> > > seven
> > > > days a week. He became convinced that real estate was a can't-lose
> > > > proposition after the value of the townhouse he had bought in
> > Woodbridge
> > > > in
> > > > 2002 for $95,000 climbed to $230,000. He and his wife, Linda, a
> > > homemaker,
> > > > traded up to another house and banked part of their profits. The
> > > > Spanish-speaking real estate agents with whom he negotiated the
> > purchase
> > > > persuaded him to borrow against his equity to move up again.
> > > >
> > > > "They called me every day; they said we can do more business, that
> > it's
> > > a
> > > > good time to do it," he said in a mixture of English and Spanish.
> > "They
> > > > talked very sweet into my ear. I believed. I believed these people,
> > and
> > > I
> > > > did this business."
> > > >
> > > > So Francisco and Linda went to visit a spacious red-brick house on
> > Lord
> > > > Culpeper Drive in Woodbridge, with its master bedroom suite and
> > > > well-equipped kitchen, priced at $540,000. Linda nearly swooned with
> > > > pleasure as she looked around the interior. She thought: Here was
> her
> > > > dream
> > > > house.
> > > >
> > > > They decided to buy the house, which was fairly easy because the
> > > Santoses
> > > > had excellent credit, equity in the other house and money in the
> bank.
> > > The
> > > > mortgage broker made things even easier by doing the settlement in
> > their
> > > > home, something many Hispanic families find more comfortable. That
> > also
> > > > made
> > > > Francisco's life easier because he typically works until 8 at night,
> > > > making
> > > > it hard to get places during normal business hours.
> > > >
> > > > He tried to rent out their former house, but the tenants didn't pay
> > > their
> > > > rent, so the Santoses used up their savings to keep up payments on
> the
> > > two
> > > > houses. They put the houses on the market but found no buyers. When
> > they
> > > > couldn't make payments, their credit rating deteriorated.
> > > >
> > > > The stress on the family mounted as collection agencies began
> calling,
> > > > over
> > > > and over. With two small children and another one on the way, the
> > > > pressures
> > > > grew. The couple quarreled, and Francisco Santos said he sometimes
> > > yelled
> > > > at
> > > > the kids for little provocation.
> > > >
> > > > "I feel terrible," said Santos, a legal immigrant. "I'm trying to
> keep
> > > > control because my wife is pregnant, and I don't want her to feel
> bad.
> > > > It's
> > > > difficult. I was thinking about my kids, and their opportunity to
> have
> > a
> > > > good life. My wife, she says, 'Why? Why?' "
> > > >
> > > > The loan servicing company, American Home Services, will foreclose
> on
> > > the
> > > > new house Saturday. The Santoses will move back to their old house
> and
> > > > hope
> > > > that they will be able to leave the problems of the new house behind
> > > them.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On 3/27/07, TN Rhodey <tnrhodey at hotmail.com> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Dave,
> > > > >
> > > > > Although I think Bush has been a terrible President I can't begin
> to
> > > > blame
> > > > > him for the looming housing mess.  Plus they couldn't do anything
> to
> > > > cool
> > > > > down real estate because that was driving the economy. Most of the
> > > > > sub-prime
> > > > > lending was well within the law. There were a few exceptions and
> > these
> > > > > were
> > > > > huge. You may remember Ameriquest running SuperBowl ads a couple
> of
> > > > years
> > > > > ago.. At one point they actually were the "Official Lender of the
> > > > Rolling
> > > > > Stones"....pretty funny when you think about it. They suffered
> their
> > > > > second
> > > > > huge loss in a class action lawsuit (over $500 million) and shut
> > down
> > > > > their
> > > > > retail division over a year ago. Basically loan fraud. Although
> this
> > > is
> > > > > part
> > > > > of the problem now it is not the real problem. Dumb ass consumers
> > are
> > > > the
> > > > > problem.
> > > > >
> > > > > The laws that cover lending costs for the most part are HOEPA and
> > > RESPA.
> > > > > RESPA is the good faith disclosure stuff that includes the "Good
> > Faith
> > > > > Estimate" and "Truth in Lending" that every mortgage lender is
> > > required
> > > > to
> > > > > send within 72 hours of application. HOEPA covers predatory costs
> > and
> > > > APR.
> > > > > Many states have their own laws that go beyond the Federal
> > standards.
> > > I
> > > > > don't think we need new laws. People should read their closing
> > > > documents.
> > > > > All loan details are disclosed. If the loan has an adjustable
> rate,
> > > > > balloon
> > > > > payment, or negative amortization it is fully disclosed. People
> are
> > in
> > > > > denial and greedy for a home they can't afford.  For the right
> > person
> > > in
> > > > > the
> > > > > right market these loans make sense. For some they mean
> > > > > foreclosure…..buyer
> > > > > beware but we should have the choice.
> > > > >
> > > > > Admittedly pushy lenders "sell" these loans but it wasn't like
> they
> > > had
> > > > to
> > > > > break any legs to get people at the closing table. Let the chips
> > fall
> > > > and
> > > > > .no bailout! For those with cash and good credit there is going to
> > be
> > > a
> > > > > booming real estate market in a few years.
> > > > >
> > > > > Wally
> > > > >
> > > > > >From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > > > > >Reply-To: The Rhodes 22 mail list <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > > > >To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > > > >Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Economics
> > > > > >Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2007 18:54:53 -0600
> > > > > >
> > > > > >Dave,
> > > > > >
> > > > > >Our rental apartment in Beijing is currently rented, but, perhaps
> > we
> > > > > could
> > > > > >kick the current tenant out so you can live in a socialistic
> > fantasy
> > > > > land.
> > > > > >On the other hand, we demand the rent on time and we don't care
> > about
> > > > > your
> > > > > >whiney ass excuses.  The Chinese are adapting to capitalism and
> > have
> > > > quit
> > > > > >trying to control every little nit-noy detail of  life.  That's
> > > > probably
> > > > > a
> > > > > >good approach when you have 1.3 billion (billion with a B) to
> worry
> > > > > about.
> > > > > >You amaze me with your ability to discern every little persons
> > needs
> > > in
> > > > > >this
> > > > > >country and what they need to protect themselves from
> > > > themselves.  Dave,
> > > > > I
> > > > > >feel a need for a bowel movement.  Should I wipe tonight or will
> > the
> > > > > >gubment
> > > > > >take care of that for me tomorrow? If I do need to wipe, could
> you
> > > give
> > > > > me
> > > > > >a
> > > > > >heads up on the density level of paper to use?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >Brad
> > > > > >
> > > > > >On 3/26/07, DCLewis1 at aol.com <DCLewis1 at aol.com> wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Wally,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > While there are times I'm tempted to agree with your
> assessment
> > > that
> > > > > >both
> > > > > > > political parties suck, I  think it's worthwhile to try  to
> > > identify
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > problem
> > > > > > > - and from my perspective, that leads straight to  Bush.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I think there are at least 2 offices in the Dept of Treasury
> > that
> > > > have
> > > > > > > cognizance over mortgage lending practices: the Office of
> Thrift
> > > > > > > Supervision
> > > > > > > (OTS), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
> (OCC).
> > > > > > > Additionally,
> > > > > > > there may be offices in HUD and the Federal Reserve that
> > > > are  supposed
> > > > > >to
> > > > > > > regulate/oversee banks, lending,  and especially
> > mortgage  lending
> > > (
> > > > I
> > > > > > > think the Fed
> > > > > > > has an Office of Bank Regulation).  I believe OTS  and OCC
> issue
> > > > bank
> > > > > >and
> > > > > > > credit union  lending guidelines, renew charters,  request
> > > > > legislation,
> > > > > > > inspect as
> > > > > > > needed, and act as a bully pulpit to be sure the  financial
> > > > > institutions
> > > > > > > don'
> > > > > > > t get too far out of line as they try to make a  buck.  Either
> > > > office
> > > > > > > could
> > > > > > > have called a conference with lending  institutions and made
> it
> > > > clear
> > > > > >that
> > > > > > > if
> > > > > > > lending practices weren't tightened  bank/credit union renewal
> > > > > charters
> > > > > > > were at
> > > > > > > risk - it's that simple.    The public (you and I), and hence
> I
> > > > assume
> > > > > >OTS
> > > > > > > and
> > > > > > > OCC,  have known of  NoDoc, NINA, negative amortization,
> > > etc  loans
> > > > > for
> > > > > >a
> > > > > > > long time.  The  OTS and OCC choose to do nothing about the
> > > > sub-prime
> > > > > > > lending
> > > > > > > abuses - this is  not why they get paid.  I think Dept of
> > Treasury
> > > > > >screwed
> > > > > > > up -
> > > > > > > surely they  saw the problem evolving, to my knowledge they
> did
> > > > > nothing
> > > > > >to
> > > > > > > stop
> > > > > > > it.  The  Directors of the OTS and OCC, and the Sec of the
> > > Treasury
> > > > > are
> > > > > > > political  appointees.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Also, if the current sub-prime/ARM mortgage issue came out of
> > > > nowhere,
> > > > > >you
> > > > > > > might excuse the current administration and it's appointees
> for
> > > > being
> > > > > > > blind-sided by it, but that's not the case.  The NoDoc/NINA
> > issue
> > > > > > > has  developed in an
> > > > > > > industry that is prone to problems.  You may recall the  S&L
> > > > mortgage
> > > > > >mess
> > > > > > > (I
> > > > > > > think in the 80s?) - that cost the taxpayer many  billions of
> > > > > > > dollars.  Given
> > > > > > > the history of problems in the mortgage  industry, I'd expect
> a
> > > > > >competent
> > > > > > > administration to be alert and actively  monitoring the
> mortgage
> > > > > >industry
> > > > > > > to be
> > > > > > > sure it was following sound lending  practices - but clearly
> > that
> > > is
> > > > > not
> > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > case. The current mortgage mess is  different from the S&L
> mess,
> > > but
> > > > > it
> > > > > >is
> > > > > > > about
> > > > > > > mortgages, mortgage companies  that are chasing profits as
> hard
> > as
> > > > > they
> > > > > > > can
> > > > > > > with "innovative" products, and  oversight agencies that are
> > > asleep
> > > > at
> > > > > >the
> > > > > > > wheel.  There's really no excuse  for the Bush administration
> > not
> > > to
> > > > > >have
> > > > > > > been
> > > > > > > aware of the developing problem,  the issues were well
> > publicized
> > > > and
> > > > > >the
> > > > > > > industry has a history of  problems.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I think the Bush administration should have been aware of the
> > > > evolving
> > > > > > > problem and taken clear positive action to prevent excesses -
> > > that's
> > > > > >part
> > > > > > > of  what
> > > > > > > the OTS and OCC directors get paid to do and it's what Sec
> Treas
> > > > gets
> > > > > > > paid  to
> > > > > > > do.  I think this is just another example highlighting the
> lack
> > of
> > > > > core
> > > > > > > competency in the Bush administration.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > As I recall, the S&L bail out cost we taxpayers many 10's of
> > > > billions
> > > > > >of
> > > > > > > dollars.  Let's see what the sub-prime/ARM fiasco is going to
> > cost
> > > > us
> > > > > > > -  it may
> > > > > > > cost us nothing from the Treasury, it may just tank our net
> > worth
> > > > > > > and  trigger
> > > > > > > a recession.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > JMO
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Dave
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ************************************** AOL now offers free
> email
> > > to
> > > > > > > everyone.
> > > > > > > Find out more about what's free from AOL at http://www.aol.com
> .
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