[Rhodes22-list] Lies, Damn Liars, and Oil

[Brad Haslett]

Ed,

"Brad, tell me how that not is a lie?  Tell us how to see thru the fog of
misrepresentation."

There is no 'misrepresentation' but let's not play games with ourselfs.
Inflation is still low but it won't stay that way at $100/barrel oil.
Here's a good benchmark; follow the sales of Dollar General stores.  Their
CEO bought a farm down the road from my old one but that isn't important.
Dollar General sells to the people who can't afford to shop at WalMart.
When the cost of filling your pickup tank rises, the purchases at Dollar
General goes down.  We're in a pickle here.  At $100 per barrel, the economy
won't tank but it will adjust - painfully.  I'm anticipating a recession for
two reasons (1) this business cycle has run its course (2) oil drives the
market. If you are thinking long term the time to buy into the market is
soon approaching.  Then again, if you are thinking long term, any day is the
right time to buy into the market.  At any point in history there has always
been an "ism" that was a threat.  Right now it is the radical Islamists.
They have been proactive for the last three decades and they will either win
or we will prevail over the next fifty years. Whether you think Iraq was a
mistake or GWB is the biggest asshole on the planet won't matter in the long
run.  There will be more battles and more US leaders without a clear vision.
As long as we keep sucking down their oil we fund their side of the battle.
Don't panic anyone, we've faced bigger hurdles and prevailed.  Where was I
on this?  Oh yeah - inflation!  Coming to a theatre near you soon.

Brad