[Rhodes22-list] ss comments to "You voted for change in 2006 - you got change(Political)"

[Brad Haslett]

Stan,

We're talking two different issues here, war and economics, that do
intertwine. Let's deal with them individually first.

We are now in our fifth year of a very unpopular war.  Wars are supposed to
be unpopular, no more so than to those called upon to fight them. This one
has had even more fragile support than most because of three factors, 1 -
the 2000 election and the resulting polarization against the POTUS, 2 - the
bad intelligence and lack of WMD, and 3 - the failure of much of the
electorate to see any American interests at stake.  Let's skip the 2000
election, we can't re-write that history. You didn't like the outcome any
more than I did the 1992 election that gave us a President (that I had
personal dealings with and disliked) with only 44% of the popular vote.  At
least Bush 43 got elected with a higher percentage of the vote but neither
you nor I resigned our citizenship as a result.  WMD was one of a dozen
reasons cited for the necessity of a regime change in Iraq.  Regime change
was the official policy of the Clinton administration.  Saddam made a
mockery of UN sanctions and weapons inspections.  The Bush led invasion was
NOT the start of a new war but another phase (albeit a very costly one) of a
war that had been ongoing for at least a dozen years.  We have had a
military presence in the Gulf since WW2.  Since FDR, we have had a Saudi
based "cheap oil" policy and have supported Israel as an ally. Short of
abandoning Israel and/or finding an alternative source of transportation
energy, we'll have vital interests in the Middle East indefinitely.

Presidents and the Congress love to take credit for the economy in good
times and distance themselves during the enviable downturns. As JFK once
remarked to Nixon about two years into JFK's administration, "who really
gives a shit whether the minimum wage is $1.25 or $1.75, the Presidency is
really about foreign affairs".  The President can throw a monkey wrench into
the economy, ala, Richard Nixon's price controls or Jimmy Carter's "luxury
taxes".  Let's give Bill Clinton credit where credit is due - he opened up
free trade, let the DotCom bubble play itself out, and came to Mexico's
rescue when they had a currency crisis.

The error in your thinking Stan is this: you conclude that what we don't
spend on guns we could have spent on butter. That's true to a point.
Instead of guns, we could have more or better interstate highways, better
ports, more and better infrastructure of every sort.  But in every attempt
in modern history to have a central government control the means of
production of the butter, citizens have gotten less butter, not more.  The
demand for more government provided butter is endless.  When the source of
cheap butter reaches a point of finite supply, someone has to be the
Boogyman.  For Nazi Germany it was the Jooooooo's. For Saudia Arabia it was
the Joooooo's.  For the current economic situation in the US it is the
Chinese, or the Mexicans, or the yet to be named culprit. History really
hasn't changed that much over time.

Bush 43 and the Congress he enjoyed for the first six years didn't listen to
much of the base that elected them (people like myself) and marched forward
to the drumbeat that government's responsibility was to provide butter.
That's not my interpretation of the founding father's intent.  Their belief
was that the government provide enough guns so citizens could pursue their
own quest for butter in relative peace.  Would we be better off fiscally had
we not invaded Iraq?  Maybe.  On the other hand, we could have been fighting
a much bigger war on more fronts and with more direct attacks at home.  You
and I won't live long enough to know the answer to that.  History will tell.

Your question was, "why do all those talking economic heads refuse to factor
the war into their analysis?"  Some do, Paul Krugman from the NYT's being a
prime example (btw, I don't agree with Krugman).  The truth is, they can't
answer with certainty and neither can I.  One thing is certain, attacks like
9/11 have an immediate and substantial negative effect on the economy.  That
it will happen again is almost a certainty.

And remember this Stan, I'm an optimist!

Brad

On Tue, Apr 1, 2008 at 9:12 AM, stan <stan at rhodes22.com> wrote:

> Having recited Bushes accomplishments does this mean you won't vote for
> him
> or McCain for a third term?   Brad, give us your articulate explanation of
> why all those talking economic heads refuse to factor the war into their
> analysis?  With their warless explanation of US economics I had been
> finding
> them as funny as Maher but now that I realize they are serious about
> leaving
> the economics of the war out of their blaming and solutions I am getting
> worried.
>
> ss
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Hank" <hnw555 at gmail.com>
> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> Sent: Tuesday, April 01, 2008 8:28 AM
> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] You voted for change in 2006 - you got
> change(Political)
>
>
> >I just got this from my Uncle and I think it is rather appropriate and
> > wanted to share it with all of you.
> >
> > Hank
> >
> > *In 2005:*
> >
> > *1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high; **
> > **2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon; **
> > **3) the unemployment rate was 4.5%. **
> > *
> > *Since voting in a Democratic Congress in 2006 we're seen:** *
> >
> > *
> > **1) Consumer confidence plummet;
> > 2) the cost of regular gasoline soar to over $3 a gallon;
> > 3) Unemployment is up to 5% (a 10% increase);
> > 4) American households have seen $2.3 trillion in equity value evaporate
> > (stock and mutual fund losses);
> > 5) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $1.2 trillion dollars;
> > 6) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.
> >
> >
> > America voted for change in 2006, and we got it! *
> > __________________________________________________
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