[Rhodes22-list] Political - 21st Century 'Ernie Pyle"

[Robert Skinner]

Herb,

Perhaps it will help you (and some others) to reflect 
on the impossibility of abrupt withdrawal of our 
military from Iraq.

The military minds will insist (correctly) that a 
pell-mell exit would be fatal to not only our troops 
but also all who have worked with us (them) in 
restoring some small semblance of order.  Neither 
Hillary nor Obama will have sufficient personal 
power to drive such a disaster.

The same Iraqis who were banging on us to get out of 
their country will be begging us to come back when 
they see the incompetence and quarrelsome nature of 
the current leadership in Iraq without us in the way 
to take the blame.  Then we can negotiate with them 
and the United Nations as to who will do what to 
save their bacon.

The fastest way out of Iraq will be to morph (once 
again) the definition of the "mission" from "the son 
of occupation and pacification" to carefully 
researched and directed pin-point raids on terrorist 
cells -- using the emerging community policing methods
rather than military tactics.  I predict that such a 
transmogrification will occur regardless of whether 
McCain is elected or defeated.

The raids will cover our decorous redeployment of 
military forces to bases in Afghanistan, from which 
they can get after the serious business of busting 
Bin Laden.

As long as terrorists are on the loose, there will 
not be peace.  There will only be various degrees of 
repression at home and abroad, dilution of liberty,
and a roller coaster of hope, fear and hate.

Let's get focussed here, folks!

/Robert
---------------------------------------------------------
Herb Parsons wrote:
> 
> Really Rob? Historians are going to be writing that? And what do you
> base that assessment on? Do you actually know such an historian, or is
> it just assmption on your part.
> 
> Personally, I think your blowing smoke. Virtually all of what you said
> is just junk, with nothing to back it up.
> 
> The military doesn't view their task as "impossible", why do you? (If
> you'd like, I'll be more than happy to give you quotes from them)
> 
> Rob Lowe wrote:
> > Gentlemen,
> > You both raise some very good points.  Historians for years will be writing
> > about that failings of the Bush administration to "understand the extend to
> > which their culture made it difficult to move from an authoritarian
> > government to (a) liberal democracy".
> >
> > The military has done an exemplarily job given their impossible "mission",
> > which still has no definition.  The military has done a much better job than
> > it's civilian leadership.  The military won "the war", in that they defeated
> > Sadam's army in about three weeks.
> >
> > But I disagree with the notion that the only choice is to stay in Iraq.  We
> > can not impose a liberal democracy.  The Iraqis don't want one.  We can not
> > make them want one.  They have no history of democracy and only understand
> > authoritarian governments.
> >
> > The Shia's are fighting amongst themselves right now while we've armed and
> > paid off the Sunni.  Soon enough the Shia and the Sunni will be fighting
> > each other.  The Kurds will sit on the sidelines until they can either break
> > away or be forced into the battle.  There can be no democracy in a country
> > unless the citizens of the country want it, and Iraqis do not.  Al-Malaki
> > wants to rule, not compromise.  Has his political party tried to negotiate
> > with al-Sadr?  No, he attacks him and is now trying to isolate him
> > politically.  Has Al-Malaki tried to negotiate with the Sunni or their
> > Awakening Councils?  No, he refuses to do so and the Awakening Councils were
> > formed to protect Sunnis from the (mostly) Shia national army.  Soon, Shia
> > and Sunni will be fighting each other.  Hard to say where the Kurds will
> > ally, I would expect they will sit this one out and declare independence
> > once the dust settles and no one can stop them.
> >
> > We can not fix this situation.  No amount of nation building can succeed
> > where the parties are not interested in forming a democracy.  Face the
> > inevitable, get out now.  Bush knows he's lost the peace but is passing the
> > buck to the next president just so he doesn't get the blame.  If the
> > democrats get elected and withdraw, they will be blamed for "loosing the
> > war", even though it was lost the day Bush decided to invade.  If McCain is
> > elected, he certainly won't withdraw, but he can't win it either, no matter
> > what he does.  So we go into a Vietnam type statement all over again.
> > The US won the war, but lost the peace because they had, and still don't
> > have, a way to win the peace.  They lost the opportunity long ago.  Face the
> > inevitable and get out now.
> >
> > Some of  this is not much different than our own Civil War.  They only
> > "solution" is
> > a military victory by one party over another.  There could be no end to our
> > own Revolution, Civil War, French and Indian War, War of 1812, and all the
> > rest of the armed conflicts around the world, regardless of the nation,
> > without a military victory.  I can't think of any struggle that was resolved
> > without armed force expect perhaps the independence of India, and that was
> > an occasion where the occupiers lost the moral will to rule.  There have
> > been other instances of nations being granted self rule by their occupiers,
> > but that was only after their self interests expired or the costs were not
> > worth the returns.
> >
> > So, withdraw now and let the inevitable happen.  To stay in only prolongs
> > the inevitable and costs us more in dollars and soldiers.  The British
> > learned the hard way you can not rule this region.  History does repeat
> > itself but no one in the Bush administration seems to know much about
> > history.  We could not win in Vietnam and we can not win in Iraq.  Get out
> > now and let them fight it out.  Just my 2 cents. - rob
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > Sent: Tuesday, April 15, 2008 2:15 PM
> > Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] 21st Century 'Ernie Pyle"
> >
> >
> >
> >> Robert,
> >>
> >> The last sentence says it all, "There is a recognition that we did not
> >> understand the extent to which their culture made it difficult to move
> >>
> > from
> >
> >> an authoritarian government to liberal democracy."
> >>
> >> Where shall we go now?  The world is a small globe - fast airplanes make
> >>
> > it
> >
> >> smaller.  We as a nation are imperfect, but what nation is better?  Where
> >>
> > do
> >
> >> Chinese dissidents who fear for their lives for their involvement in
> >> Tienanmen Square have to run?  In what nation can Islam evolve to the more
> >> enlightened passages of the Koran?  If we as Americans don't believe in
> >>
> > the
> >
> >> spirit of 1776, what hope do we hold for the rest of the world, most of
> >> which envies our lifestyle and freedoms?
> >>
> >> I'm all for realism, including the 'meat' of the article you referenced.
> >> But, "where do we go now?"
> >>
> >>
> >> It's easy to focus on the Bush 43 failures and the difficulties of the
> >>
> > Iraq
> >
> >> invasion.  That's one small part of a larger problem.  Solutions?
> >>
> >> Brad
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> > __________________________________________________
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> >
> >
> >
> >
> __________________________________________________
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-- 
Robert Skinner  "Squirrel Haven" 
Gorham, Maine         04038-1331
s/v "Little Dipper" & "Edith P."