[Rhodes22-list] bill?

Thu Dec 4 12:28:30 EST 2008

Brad,

WW2 certainly helped end the last depression, and
the industrial machine that produced heavy war
machinery did survive while the rest of the world's
industry was shattered.

But the nature of the movement to exterminate
terrorists will not have the same effect - except
as it could cement the US position as leader in
the smart weapon marketplace.

But smart weapons, once deployed, are relatively
(compared to tanks and bombers) easy to duplicate.
Terrorists have a psychotic cleverness.

So we must depend on our brains, diplomacy, and
ultimately winning over a critical mass of world
good will to evolve the universe of discourse
from head-butting to alliance and nation-building.

I hope we are up to the task.

/Robert, ME
--------------------------------------------------

Brad Haslett wrote:
> Micheal,
> 
> You made some interesting observations that most people don't think
> about, or don't want to think about.  What drug us out of the Great
> Depression was not a multitude of make-work programs but WW2.  Prior
> to Pearl Harbor we had the 16th largest military behind Poland. As
> Yamamato said whilst steaming back to Japan, "we have awakened a
> sleeping giant". Our success throughout the 50's and most of the 60's
> was largely the result of the rest of the industrialized world being
> left in tatters from the aftermath of the war. Those countries that
> experimented with Marx and Engels discovered that centralized economic
> planning never works so our success came easy. As a nation, we've
> started to believe our own hype that our being on top economically is
> the natural order of the universe. Things have changed.  Europe has
> two huge economic problems they are facing, socialization and
> demographics.  China is facing huge demographic problems in the next
> few decades as well (one child policy and an aging population) but
> they've cast off ideas of centralized planning have 20 years or so to
> stuff the piggy bank (my sister-in-law says 30).  We in this country
> refuse to face the most basic of problems.  The younger generation
> can't afford to fund the promises made to the Boomer generation -
> we'll either have to delay benefits, cut benefits, or raise SS taxes
> on younger workers. We've raised at least a couple of generations of
> entitlement minded workers. We have one of the most un-competitive
> corporate tax rates in the industrialized world.  Historically, who
> ever had the cheapest energy and used the most energy was the most
> productive.  We don't have a comprehensive energy policy unless you
> consider "you can't drill here, you can't mine there" a policy.  You
> are indeed correct, this cycle may be long and it may be ugly.  Even
> if it made good economic and fiscal sense, an Obama led public works
> infrastructure program would take years to get started (think
> environmental impact studies, eminent domain lawsuits, engineering,
> etc - this ain't 1932). Isolationism and restraint of trade won't work
> any better now than it did for Hoover. At some point in time, Obama
> will have to level with the American people and admit that he was a
> gas-bag promise generator during the campaign and now that he's in
> office, here's the ugly reality and here's what we're going to do
> about it.  Short of that, he's playing "musical chairs" and playing it
> on the deck of the Titanic. I'm not holding my breath for honest
> answers. In the meantime, most of the world's oil is still being
> pumped by people who don't like us, Russia is on another power trip
> and using energy as a weapon, crazed Islamists haven't suddenly quit
> wanting to kill us, etc.  Let's hope Ben is right and The One is
> surrounded by "The Best and Brightest" and this time they don't get us
> into the Bay of Pigs and Vietnam.
> 
> Have a nice day!
> 
> Brad
> 
> On Wed, Dec 3, 2008 at 10:48 PM, michael meltzer <mjm at michaelmeltzer.com> wrote:
>> I here you, the bottom line is we do not "make things" any more, any when the world wakes up that they do not need the Americas it going to be very rough. The funny thing is from an economic standpoint we have simulating like all sh-t with the war effort. I am not sure "o" is going to bring much more to the table. Or if any policy in the short run will(like 1-2 years) This down turn is going to last until people get tired of it(which seems to cure them all) or we get into a bigger war.   The other issue is the underlying trends are bad, many years ago I saw a very interesting graph that plotted  Americas by age/income producing by each age group and compared it to the GDP. The idea was that each person cost and value to sociality and the relationship changes based on age. By adding up all the "cost and values" for everyone to form a macro picture (and this was not touchy feely numbers, simply what you cost and what up make).   It turned out to be a perfect almost correlat
ion with GDP. An using the methods of any insurance actuarial the projection has the curve shifting right about now to a decreasing GDP
>>
>> -mjm
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org [mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org] On Behalf Of Bill Effros
>> Sent: Wednesday, December 03, 2008 9:42 PM
>> To: The Rhodes 22 Email List
>> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] bill?
>>
>> Michael,
>>
>> I like to think I'm in the "what's best for my country" camp, and
>> against the hypocrisy camp.
>>
>> George Bush got into office by saying one thing and doing another.  I
>> opposed that.
>>
>> Obama got into office the same way.  I oppose that, too.
>>
>> Both men are inexperienced, relying on the knowledge of those
>> surrounding them.  It's a bad formula.  The other people in the room
>> won't agree on many things.  The least experienced person winds up
>> making the decision on a "gut feel".
>>
>> Both Bush and Obama were selected by political machines as the electable
>> face of unelectable policies.
>>
>> It didn't work well for the Republicans.  It's not going to work well
>> for the Democrats, either.
>>
>> As you well know, we've got really really big problems.  Things will
>> probably never go back to where they were.  Our country's position is
>> likely to deteriorate, along with the position of most individuals.
>> There are smarter moves, and dumber moves.  Moves that will leave us
>> better off, and moves that will leave us worse off.
>>
>> The Democrats are settling scores--they are not working for the common good.
>>
>> As you know, I am voting against my pocketbook.  The Democrat's policies
>> benefit me.  If I lose, I win.  But, at least I can live with myself,
>> having tried to work for what I believe is right.
>>
>> Maybe if enough people speak up early enough we can stop throwing our
>> money into a bottomless pit, and start actually working our way out.
>>
>> Bill Effros
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> michael meltzer wrote:
>>> Bill I am confused, I will admit it does not take much more me to be in that conduction but.....
>>>
>>> For the most part you have been in the democratic camp, what happened? It seems that "O" has you more than a little pissed off.....
>>>
>>> -mjm
>>>
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org [mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org] On Behalf Of Bill Effros
>>> Sent: Wednesday, December 03, 2008 7:01 PM
>>> To: The Rhodes 22 Email List
>>> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Politics - Palin - Twain
>>>
>>> David Brooks!
>>>
>>> One of the neo-cons who got just about everything wrong for the past 8
>>> years!
>>>
>>> Ben, why didn't you quote this from a more recent column:
>>>
>>> "Barack Obama and his team should put into action a foreign policy
>>> doctrine that builds on some of the ideas developed during George W.
>>> Bush's term."
>>>
>>> This isn't a football game, and it doesn't matter who you "root" for.
>>>
>>> This country is proceeding on an incoherent course which most ordinary
>>> Americans can see can't possibly work.
>>>
>>> The "Bailout" is already a fiasco -- and make no mistake, it's a
>>> Democrat fiasco.
>>>
>>> Bailing out auto unions is a payoff, plain and simple.
>>>
>>> Citibank paid $400 Million to call the new Mets stadium "Citi Field" --
>>> and now the taxpayers are giving them their money back--BRILLIANT!
>>>
>>> Obama is following exactly the same course Herbert Hoover followed after
>>> the stock market crash.  Public works projects.  Rooting for the home team.
>>>
>>> It didn't work then, and it won't work now.
>>>
>>> Maybe, just maybe, there's a better way.  Obama was elected to bring
>>> change, not more of the same, and it's never too early to notice the
>>> emperor has no clothes on.
>>>
>>> Listening to David Brooks is not likely to be the better way, he's just
>>> another "well-educated" dope.
>>>
>>> Bill Effros
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Ben Cittadino wrote:
>>>
>>>> Folks;
>>>>
>>>> Mr Effros opines that "once again the country has decided to make the
>>>> dumbest person in the room the decider".  I agree with Mr. Brooks of the
>>>> NYTimes who wrote recently:
>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>
>>>> "November 21, 2008
>>>> Op-Ed Columnist
>>>> The Insider's Crusade
>>>> By DAVID BROOKS
>>>> Jan. 20, 2009, will be a historic day. Barack Obama (Columbia, Harvard Law)
>>>> will take the oath of office as his wife, Michelle (Princeton, Harvard Law),
>>>> looks on proudly. Nearby, his foreign policy advisers will stand beaming,
>>>> including perhaps Hillary Clinton (Wellesley, Yale Law), Jim Steinberg
>>>> (Harvard, Yale Law) and Susan Rice (Stanford, Oxford D. Phil.).
>>>>
>>>> The domestic policy team will be there, too, including Jason Furman
>>>> (Harvard, Harvard Ph.D.), Austan Goolsbee (Yale, M.I.T. Ph.D.), Blair Levin
>>>> (Yale, Yale Law), Peter Orszag (Princeton, London School of Economics Ph.D.)
>>>> and, of course, the White House Counsel Greg Craig (Harvard, Yale Law).
>>>>
>>>> This truly will be an administration that looks like America, or at least
>>>> that slice of America that got double 800s on their SATs. Even more than
>>>> past administrations, this will be a valedictocracy — rule by those who
>>>> graduate first in their high school classes. If a foreign enemy attacks the
>>>> United States during the Harvard-Yale game any time over the next four
>>>> years, we're screwed.
>>>>
>>>> Already the culture of the Obama administration is coming into focus. Its
>>>> members are twice as smart as the poor reporters who have to cover them,
>>>> three times if you include the columnists. They typically served in the
>>>> Clinton administration and then, like Cincinnatus, retreated to the comforts
>>>> of private life — that is, if Cincinnatus had worked at Goldman Sachs,
>>>> Williams & Connolly or the Brookings Institution. So many of them send their
>>>> kids to Georgetown Day School, the posh leftish private school in D.C., that
>>>> they'll be able to hold White House staff meetings in the carpool line.
>>>>
>>>> And yet as much as I want to resent these overeducated Achievatrons (not to
>>>> mention the incursion of a French-style government dominated by highly
>>>> trained Enarchs), I find myself tremendously impressed by the Obama
>>>> transition.
>>>>
>>>> The fact that they can already leak one big appointee per day is testimony
>>>> to an awful lot of expert staff work. Unlike past Democratic
>>>> administrations, they are not just handing out jobs to the hacks approved by
>>>> the favored interest groups. They're thinking holistically — there's a nice
>>>> balance of policy wonks, governors and legislators. They're also thinking
>>>> strategically. As Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute
>>>> notes, it was smart to name Tom Daschle both the head of Health and Human
>>>> Services and the health czar. Splitting those duties up, as Bill Clinton
>>>> did, leads to all sorts of conflicts.
>>>>
>>>> Most of all, they are picking Washington insiders. Or to be more precise,
>>>> they are picking the best of the Washington insiders.
>>>>
>>>> Obama seems to have dispensed with the romantic and failed notion that you
>>>> need inexperienced "fresh faces" to change things. After all, it was L.B.J.
>>>> who passed the Civil Rights Act. Moreover, because he is so young, Obama is
>>>> not bringing along an insular coterie of lifelong aides who depend upon him
>>>> for their well-being.
>>>>
>>>> As a result, the team he has announced so far is more impressive than any
>>>> other in recent memory. One may not agree with them on everything or even
>>>> most things, but a few things are indisputably true.
>>>>
>>>> First, these are open-minded individuals who are persuadable by evidence.
>>>> Orszag, who will probably be budget director, is trusted by Republicans and
>>>> Democrats for his honest presentation of the facts.
>>>>
>>>> Second, they are admired professionals. Conservative legal experts have a
>>>> high regard for the probable attorney general, Eric Holder, despite the
>>>> business over the Marc Rich pardon.
>>>>
>>>> Third, they are not excessively partisan. Obama signaled that he means to
>>>> live up to his postpartisan rhetoric by letting Joe Lieberman keep his
>>>> committee chairmanship.
>>>>
>>>> Fourth, they are not ideological. The economic advisers, Furman and
>>>> Goolsbee, are moderate and thoughtful Democrats. Hillary Clinton at State is
>>>> problematic, mostly because nobody has a role for her husband. But, as she
>>>> has demonstrated in the Senate, her foreign-policy views are hardheaded and
>>>> pragmatic. (It would be great to see her set of interests complemented by
>>>> Samantha Power's set of interests at the U.N.)
>>>>
>>>> Finally, there are many people on this team with practical creativity. Any
>>>> think tanker can come up with broad doctrines, but it is rare to find people
>>>> who can give the president a list of concrete steps he can do day by day to
>>>> advance American interests. Dennis Ross, who advised Obama during the
>>>> campaign, is the best I've ever seen at this, but Rahm Emanuel also has this
>>>> capacity, as does Craig and legislative liaison Phil Schiliro.
>>>>
>>>> Believe me, I'm trying not to join in the vast, heaving O-phoria now
>>>> sweeping the coastal haute bourgeoisie. But the personnel decisions have
>>>> been superb. The events of the past two weeks should be reassuring to
>>>> anybody who feared that Obama would veer to the left or would suffer
>>>> self-inflicted wounds because of his inexperience. He's off to a start that
>>>> nearly justifies the hype."
>>>>
>>>> Copyright 2008 New York Times
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I don't remember writing off Presdent GW Bush early.  In fact there was
>>>> great hope he could be the compassionate conservative, but he ran off the
>>>> rails in ways we have already discussed. We're in a mess all right, but if
>>>> it is possible to use our brains to get out of it, then Obama has surely
>>>> recruited the best the most intelligent people in the country to get down to
>>>> business.
>>>>
>>>> Remember David Brooks is well known and accepted as a conservative
>>>> Republican by all reasonable comentators.  I'm going to withhold judgment
>>>> and give Mr Obama his fair chance at tackling the issues, and I encourage
>>>> everyone to do the same.
>>>>
>>>> Ben C.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> benonvelvetelvis wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Save me some room in the storm shelter (we hit water when we dig down
>>>>> here).
>>>>> I'll bring my share of the plastic sheeting and duct tape!
>>>>>
>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>> From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
>>>>> [mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org] On Behalf Of Bill Effros
>>>>> Sent: Wednesday, December 03, 2008 15:30
>>>>> To: The Rhodes 22 Email List
>>>>> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Politics - Palin - Twain
>>>>>
>>>>> Rummy,
>>>>>
>>>>> We didn't have to wait for Bush to get into the White House to write him
>>>>> off.
>>>>>
>>>>> They both ran as "outsiders" and "agents of change" who were going to
>>>>> change Washington "business as usual".
>>>>>
>>>>> But what do we see?  Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rahm Emanuel, Robert Gates,
>>>>> Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden--same people, different day.
>>>>>
>>>>> The Democrats are awarding the "spoils" to the people who elected them:
>>>>> Lawyers; Wall Street; Organized Labor; Big Farmers.
>>>>>
>>>>> Meanwhile, the country is spiraling downward, the Democrats will have to
>>>>> go to continuous feed web presses or larger denominations to print the
>>>>> money fast enough, the "global warming" opposition will be chucked under
>>>>> the bus as the "public works projects" start to gear up.  The rest of
>>>>> the world has its own problems -- they're not going to bail us out this
>>>>> time.
>>>>>
>>>>> And what about Afghanistan?  You think Vietnam was tough terrain?  Not
>>>>> to mention the fact that Afghanistan is twice the size of all of
>>>>> Vietnam.  How many soldiers did we have in South Vietnam when you were
>>>>> there?  How many do you think it will take to lose in Afghanistan?
>>>>>
>>>>> There is zero evidence that this guy is a smart man.  This country has
>>>>> again made the dumbest person in the room "the decider".  I really
>>>>> didn't think people would make that same mistake again, but, here we are!
>>>>>
>>>>> Professional politicians continue to run this country.  They are running
>>>>> it into the ground.  We should let the banks go bankrupt; only
>>>>> profitable automobile companies will survive; if people overpaid for
>>>>> their homes they should give them up; if people don't have jobs they
>>>>> should stop going to the mall; if we think we've got to fight wars all
>>>>> over the place, lets draft the soldiers; building dams and roads will
>>>>> not make the earth greener; public works projects don't end depressions.
>>>>>
>>>>> We haven't heard one good idea from this guy.  When push comes to shove,
>>>>> he always reneges.   And you think we should wait for 4 years before we
>>>>> call him on it?
>>>>>
>>>>> Not me.  We're heading for tough times, and everybody is to blame.  But
>>>>> blaming won't help.  Burning food, bailing out ridiculous union
>>>>> contracts, letting people live in homes they can't afford, printing more
>>>>> money, paying off debts with worthless paper -- will only make things
>>>>> worse.  I'll speak up now.
>>>>>
>>>>> Bill Effros
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> 2RumRunner at aol.com wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> Bill,
>>>>>> Lighten up. Your blood vessels in your head are about to explode. Obama
>>>>>> isn't even in the white house yet and you are writing him off already.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>> Yes, he
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> certainly has his hands full, cleaning up the mess from the last eight
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>> years,
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> but he's a smart man and will get the job done. Cut him a little slack.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>> In
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> four years if he hasn't done a good job, then you can replace him. Until
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>> then,
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> lighten up Francis.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Rummy
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> In a message dated 12/3/2008 12:17:17 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
>>>>>> bill at effros.com writes:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Too bad  it didn't work...she was unable to get out the Republican vote
>>>>>> while  Obama's field offices brought out the Democrats en masse...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> It's less  than a month later, and the Democrats don't seem to have a
>>>>>> clue that  they've got a real problem.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Did you notice that China has announced  they aren't going to bail us out
>>>>>> this time?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Bill Effros
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Brad  Haslett wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "The report of my death is greatly exaggerated" - Mark  Twain
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> So, Sarah came down to Georgia.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>  Brad
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> ------------------
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>  Chambliss: Palin  'allowed us to peak'
>>>>>>> By: Andy Barr
>>>>>>> December 3, 2008 11:29 AM  EST
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Fresh off his runoff victory Tuesday night, Georgia  Republican Sen.
>>>>>>> Saxby Chambliss credited Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with  firing up his
>>>>>>> base.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "I can't overstate the impact she  had down here," Chambliss said
>>>>>>> during an interview Wednesday morning  on Fox News.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "When she walks in a room, folks just explode,"  he added. "And they
>>>>>>> really did pack the house everywhere we went.  She's a dynamic lady, a
>>>>>>> great administrator, and I think she's got a  great future in the
>>>>>>> Republican Party."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Chambliss said  that after watching her campaign on his behalf at
>>>>>>> several events  Monday, he does not see her star status diminishing
>>>>>>> within the  party.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The Republican also thanked John McCain and the other  big name
>>>>>>> Republicans that came to Georgia, but said Palin made the  biggest
>>>>>>> impact.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "We had John McCain and Mike Huckabee  and Gov. Romney and Rudy
>>>>>>> Giuliani, but Sarah Palin came in on the last  day, did a fly-around
>>>>>>> and, man, she was dynamite," he said. "We packed  the houses everywhere
>>>>>>> we went. And it really did allow us to peak and  get our base fired
>>>>>>> up."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> But as Chambliss heaped praise  on Palin and other big-ticket
>>>>>>> Republicans that came to Georgia on his  behalf, he questioned why
>>>>>>> President-elect Barack Obama would not use  his star power to aid his
>>>>>>> Democratic opponent Jim  Martin.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "I have no idea why he didn't come down," Chambliss  said.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "His people were here. His organization was here," he  added. "They
>>>>>>> really did a good job in the general election of turning  out people.
>>>>>>> And whatever their game plan was this time, if he had been  here, I
>>>>>>> have no idea whether it would have worked  better."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> (c) 2008 Capitol News Company, LLC
>>>>>>>  __________________________________________________
>>>>>>> To  subscribe/unsubscribe or for help with using the mailing list go to
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> http://www.rhodes22.org/list
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>  __________________________________________________
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> __________________________________________________
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>>
>>>>> (http://www.aol.com/?optin=new-dp&icid=aolcom40vanity&ncid=emlcntaolcom00000
>>>>> 010)
>>>>>
>>>>>
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>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
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