[Rhodes22-list] The end of the Rove era -- Political

[Andrew Collins]

Brad

Both are true, one does not eliminate the other. That is the great thing
about the US. See today's NYT for a thoughtful discussion. The point of the
post was not the polls, or even who wins, but that there is a sea change
happening.
Wednesday morning is going to be interesting and historic, no matter what.

A

On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 8:33 AM, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:

> Andrew,
>
> The problem with polling your own locale is it isn't representative of
> what is really happening.  My neighborhood is probably 80% for McCain
> but my county will be solid blue.  It doesn't matter, the rest of
> Tennessee is solid red.
>
> Watch Pennsylvania but don't watch it until Wednesday morning. The
> polls are wrong and the exit polls will be really wrong.  PUMAs and
> union members are skewing the data.  The talking heads will look at
> the early returns out of Philly and Pittsburgh and make fools of
> themselves.
>
> Kristol and the other so-called conservatives of his ilk spend too
> much time in NYC and not enough time in the corn fields and coal
> mines.  Palin is immensely popular on the stump in rural PA and OH and
> resonates with the crowds as Truman did.  Both were wildly
> underestimated.
>
> Again, watch PA, but don't pay any attention until after midnight.
>
> Brad
>
> On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 6:03 AM, Andrew Collins
> <sailingvesselcarmen at gmail.com> wrote:
> > Dave
> >
> > I think you have accurately pointed out that there is a large number of
> > people out there who wish for a more civil, less partisan and more
> > cooperative atmosphere in government. In my mind this explains why
> Hillary
> > was rejected in the primaries, she represented old-style divisive
> politics,
> > and voters spoke.
> > In asking people from all walks of life about what they think about these
> > two presidential candidates, all of them feel that while Obama is
> untested
> > and unaccomplished, yet so many are willing to take a chance on him. It
> is
> > nothing short of astonishing.
> > The under-30 (or 40?) years of age group here in the NE seeems to be 100%
> in
> > favor of Obama, and claim to know no one in their age group who will vote
> > Republican. This stands in contrast to past elections when that age group
> > voted more diversely.
> > The middle will vote too, and this will be so interesting! A choice
> between
> > risk, or something one no longer wants.
> > As to Palin, even William Kristol can't apologize enough. She will need
> to
> > pick between politics and show business, always a murky distinction in
> our
> > messy democracy. If she chooses show business, it will be a Reagan in
> > reverse career. My money is on politics, as she is a cultural warrior and
> > really wants to mix it up with those who do not hold her views. In this
> Brad
> > is probably right. We are in the midst of a culture war.
> >
> > See you Thursday. It ain't over 'til its over.
> >
> > Andrew
> >
> > On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 1:30 AM, David Bradley <dwbrad at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> Great clip.  As they said, see you on Thursday.
> >>
> >> I imagine Sarah Palin will be an important figure in the conservative
> >> movement regardless of tomorrow's outcome, and her actions over the
> >> next four years will probably determine whether this was her one shot
> >> or whether she will be taken seriously as a mainstream party leader.
> >>
> >> I don't really think there is anyone on this forum or of
> >> medium-to-above intelligence elsewhere that doesn't get that there is
> >> a sizable (huge) percentage of the population that has not deviated
> >> from Conservative principles.  All I'm saying is that it's not a large
> >> enough percentage to win without carrying the middle.
> >>
> >> Dave
> >>
> >> On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 8:18 PM, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:
> >> > David,
> >> >
> >> > Another instructional video -
> >> >
> >> > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p53kJX64ieQ
> >> >
> >> > What most people don't get is this: there is still a substantial
> >> > constituency in this country that haven't deviated from their
> >> > conservative principles.  Palin will become the new leader of this
> >> > neglected and currently gloomy bunch regardless of what happens
> >> > tomorrow.  The pundits can mentally masturbate all they want about
> >> > some so-called "negative Palin effect".  She has a future and will not
> >> > fade away - neither will we.  This is McCain's last chance. Palin
> >> > and/or Jindal will be players in 2012 no matter what.
> >> >
> >> > Brad
> >> >
> >> > On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 9:57 PM, David Bradley <dwbrad at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >> >> Thank you Brad Almighty for your balanced reply.  You are nothing if
> >> >> not consistent.
> >> >>
> >> >> You might note that I said "may have cost."  I am not assuming this
> is
> >> >> over until it is over.
> >> >>
> >> >> I still maintain that the choice of Palin may have put off more in
> the
> >> >> middle than it did to pull back conserviatives from... (where was
> that
> >> >> from?)
> >> >>
> >> >> We can let the post-election analysis interpret the outcome.  Not
> that
> >> >> you'll believe any analysis that isn't consistent with your theory.
> >> >>
> >> >> As for what half the country will think four years from now...  it
> >> >> will be based on what actually happens, not what was said during this
> >> >> campaign.  I'm betting on moderation.
> >> >>
> >> >> Dave
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 6:44 PM, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >> >>> David,
> >> >>>
> >> >>> Before anyone gets carried away with a victory dance, here's an
> >> >>> instructive video -
> >> >>>
> >> >>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkO78wo-zpo
> >> >>>
> >> >>> The article you referred to is a poorly researched unadulterated
> piece
> >> >>> of crap (insert drivel here if it suits your sensibilities better).
> >> >>>
> >> >>> Rove's "genius" that earned him the moniker "the architect" was that
> >> >>> he understood the electorate state by state and county by county,
> even
> >> >>> down to the level of township, and could modify the main message
> >> >>> slightly to each smaller geographic area.  Using the term
> >> >>> "hyperpartisanship" reveals the author's ignorance of the GOP.
>  There
> >> >>> is no monolithic "base" in the GOP anymore (if there ever was) than
> >> >>> there is amongst the Democrats after Howard Dean and the netroots
> >> >>> jerked it far, far to the left. Bush marketed himself as both a
> fiscal
> >> >>> and social conservative and turned out to be neither.  At the risk
> of
> >> >>> unnecessarily picking at old scabs, let me remind the author that
> Bush
> >> >>> 43 won the 2000 election by a 6% wider margin than Bill Clinton did
> in
> >> >>> 1992. The author should also remember that Florida wouldn't have
> been
> >> >>> an issue if Al Gore had won his home state of Tennessee.  Bush
> didn't
> >> >>> need to contest New Mexico which he lost by 400 votes after the
> >> >>> Florida count. Let me remind everyone that the Supreme Court
> decision
> >> >>> in 2000 was to set a deadline for Florida to stop counting and send
> >> >>> their electors to DC. A later investigation conducted by a pool of
> >> >>> five Florida newspapers found that Bush won Florida by every
> possible
> >> >>> method suggested by both campaigns.  That the author felt the need
> to
> >> >>> use "contested" without a full explanation reveals his bias.
> >> >>>
> >> >>> As it turned out, Bush 43's spending habits on entitlement programs,
> >> >>> with the help of a compliant Congress, should have endeared him to
> >> >>> every liberal. McCain has been to the left of the majority of the
> GOP
> >> >>> most of his career, and has been drawn even further to the left by
> an
> >> >>> opponent that is undoubtedly the most liberal candidate to run for
> >> >>> POTUS in our nations history. His pick of Sarah Palin was a
> brilliant
> >> >>> political move in that she gave hope to what few conservatives are
> >> >>> left, who reluctantly remain in the GOP because all the other
> >> >>> alternatives are so much worse. She also appeals as well to the
> 'never
> >> >>> easy to define' middle.
> >> >>>
> >> >>> The gist of the Mr. Avlon's thesis is that McCain betrayed his
> >> >>> post-partisan stance taken during the primaries to appeal to the old
> >> >>> Rove definitions of "the base". McCain has moved so far left of
> Rove's
> >> >>> base that he'd be 10 points behind right now but for Palin.
> >> >>>
> >> >>> The country has lurched far to the left, a bit ironic after 8 years
> of
> >> >>> prolific Bush spending.  The question to be answered tomorrow, is
> just
> >> >>> how far further left are we going?
> >> >>>
> >> >>> My wife swears we're headed down the same path of the country she
> left
> >> >>> 20 years ago (before China abandoned most of the economic
> silliness).
> >> >>> We'll see, ask me on Wednesday and I may agree. Should Obama win, it
> >> >>> will not be the start of the "post-partisan" era, quite the
> contrary.
> >> >>> Assuming he survives Fitzgerald's investigation as Senator or as
> >> >>> POTUS, he still will have to deal with half the electorate that will
> >> >>> remain upset by his fundraising methods, attempts at voter fraud,
> and
> >> >>> use of public databases to destroy private citizens.
> >> >>>
> >> >>> Half the country will be pissed four years from now no matter what
> the
> >> >>> outcome.  To think otherwise is naive.
> >> >>>
> >> >>> Brad
> >> >>>
> >> >>> On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 5:51 PM, David Bradley <dwbrad at gmail.com>
> >> wrote:
> >> >>>> I think this in an interesting piece which reinforces what I've
> been
> >> >>>> saying about the importance of the middle of the political
> spectrum.
> >> >>>> A similar article on CNN.com over the weekend about how Sarah Palin
> >> >>>> may have cost McCain and herself the election by alienating the
> middle
> >> >>>> - I can send that link if anyone wants it.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> Dave
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15177.html
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> The repudiation of Karl Rove
> >> >>>> By JOHN P. AVLON | 11/2/08 7:38 AM EST
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> We don't know yet who will win or by what margin, but we know one
> >> >>>> thing for certain: This election represents the repudiation of Karl
> >> >>>> Rove and his play-to-the-base strategy.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> There was always something dicey about stoking the fires of
> >> >>>> hyperpartisanship as a campaign and governing strategy, treating
> 51-49
> >> >>>> victories as ideological mandates instead of an obligation to form
> >> >>>> broader and more durable coalitions.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> Now we have the data to judge the results: a president who tried to
> >> >>>> unite his party at the expense of uniting the nation and failed to
> do
> >> >>>> both, repudiated by both candidates running to succeed him. Even
> John
> >> >>>> McCain admits to visitors at his Web site homepage, "the last eight
> >> >>>> years haven't worked very well, have they?"
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> It's an unprecedented condemnation of the president's politics as
> well
> >> >>>> as the effectiveness of his governance.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> If Obama wins this election, especially by a large margin, there is
> >> >>>> going to be a lot of talk about how the Obama team has rewritten
> the
> >> >>>> rules of modern politics. But the real question may be whether the
> >> >>>> rules were wrong all along.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> Take a look back at the two presidential victories engineered by
> "the
> >> >>>> Architect." In 2000, Bush lost the popular vote after leading in
> the
> >> >>>> polls for months, ultimately winning the electoral vote because of
> a
> >> >>>> contested 537-vote margin in Florida. In 2004, he won reelection
> with
> >> >>>> 51.3 percent of the popular vote — the lowest percent of any
> >> >>>> victorious Republican incumbent in American history. The narrow
> >> >>>> margins of these victories are signs of strategic weakness, not
> >> >>>> strength.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> Rove is a smart man and a student of history. He knows that a
> >> >>>> Republican president in wartime should be able to win reelection
> >> >>>> almost without campaigning. Richard Nixon won 49 states in a
> similar
> >> >>>> circumstance, and he did not have Bush's engaging personality, a
> >> >>>> massive domestic attack that briefly united the nation or a stiff
> >> >>>> patrician opposition candidate like John Kerry.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> Or reach for a more immediate parallel: Bill Clinton closed out his
> >> >>>> administration with a job approval rating in the mid-60s, even
> after
> >> >>>> being impeached — nearly three times as high as President Bush's
> >> >>>> recent record low of 22 percent. That was not a measure of
> Americans'
> >> >>>> approval for Clinton's personal behavior, but it was a clear
> >> >>>> endorsement of his centrist policies.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> In this campaign, the two candidates who tried to ape Rove's
> strategy
> >> >>>> most closely — Mitt Romney on the right and John Edwards on the
> left —
> >> >>>> fashioned hasty political facelifts, pandered to the base, spent
> >> >>>> enormous amounts of money and failed. Even in the essentially
> rigged
> >> >>>> system of closed partisan primaries, the play-to-the-base method
> >> >>>> wasn't working. The American people wanted something less cynical
> and
> >> >>>> divisive.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> Barack Obama and John McCain both ran in opposition to the
> polarizing
> >> >>>> establishment of their two parties, preaching the need to reach
> across
> >> >>>> the red-state and blue-state divide. They called upon Republicans,
> >> >>>> Democrats and Independents to join their cause to restore a new
> >> >>>> solutions-oriented civility to our politics.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> Ironically, this had been McCain's riff back in the 2000 campaign,
> >> >>>> when he earned the admiration of centrists and Independents
> everywhere
> >> >>>> while running into Rove's buzz saw. McCain detested the divisive
> and
> >> >>>> dishonorable personal attacks deployed against him in the South
> >> >>>> Carolina primary. The right-wing radio and evangelical base that
> Rove
> >> >>>> mobilized against McCain returned the favor, hating the Arizona
> >> >>>> senator for his independence and bipartisan instincts. McCain won
> the
> >> >>>> 2008 nomination anyway, without their support — a win that was in
> >> >>>> itself a repudiation of the world according to Karl Rove.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> The McCain campaign's mistake came in the transition to the general
> >> >>>> election, when it became surrounded by Republican operatives who
> had
> >> >>>> learned their trade from Rove. The candidate was lurched from
> center
> >> >>>> to right and back, with messaging more tactical than strategic, a
> tone
> >> >>>> more sarcastic than substantive. And when the McCain campaign tried
> to
> >> >>>> deploy the Rovian techniques he had deplored in years past, they
> not
> >> >>>> only failed to stick, but they even provoked a backlash among the
> >> >>>> Independent voters who had long been his core constituency.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> In effect, John McCain has been defeated by Karl Rove twice —
> because
> >> >>>> he's been tarred by the Bush brush and even if McCain pulls off a
> >> >>>> narrow upset win, his ability to unite the country will be damaged
> >> >>>> from Day One.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> Obama took aim at Rove's red-state/blue-state tactics early on,
> making
> >> >>>> them a staple his stump speech appeal to voters before the Iowa
> >> >>>> caucus, saying "we can't afford four more years of the same
> divisive
> >> >>>> food fight in Washington that's about scoring political points
> instead
> >> >>>> of solving problems; that's about tearing your opponents down
> instead
> >> >>>> of lifting this country up. ... We have the chance to build a new
> >> >>>> majority of not just Democrats, but Independents and Republicans.
> …We
> >> >>>> can change the electoral math that's been all about division and
> make
> >> >>>> it about addition."
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> In some ways, the key to Obama's campaign has been about inspiring
> an
> >> >>>> inclusive crusade to overturn Rove's play-to-the-base politics,
> and.
> >> >>>> as a result, he may be on the road to a victory with margins unseen
> by
> >> >>>> President Bush or the Democratic Party since Lyndon Johnson.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> Of course, if there is a Democratic landslide, some liberals will
> be
> >> >>>> tempted to interpret it as an ideological mandate, spending wildly
> and
> >> >>>> fueling their own excesses. A President Obama will need to see that
> >> >>>> his administration's record matches his postpartisan rhetoric. And
> if
> >> >>>> the Republicans go into the wilderness, count the hours until some
> >> >>>> social conservative commentator comes up with the self-serving
> >> >>>> assessment that John McCain failed because he was not conservative
> >> >>>> enough. That is precisely the wrong lesson to learn from this era
> and
> >> >>>> this election.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> The lesson is that narrow hyperpartisan appeals are not enough to
> >> >>>> govern effectively or representatively in the 21st century.
> Ignoring
> >> >>>> the center is a sure path to political isolation. And dividing the
> >> >>>> American people in order to conquer them in campaigns is morally
> and
> >> >>>> practically bankrupt. Karl Rove's play-to-the-base strategy has
> been
> >> >>>> exposed as unethical and unwise.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> John P. Avlon is the author of "Independent Nation: How Centrists
> Can
> >> >>>> Change American Politics."
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> __________________________________________________
> >> >>>> To subscribe/unsubscribe or for help with using the mailing list go
> to
> >> http://www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >>>> __________________________________________________
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>
> >> >>> __________________________________________________
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> >> >>> __________________________________________________
> >> >>>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> --
> >> >> David Bradley
> >> >> +1.206.234.3977
> >> >> dwbrad at gmail.com
> >> >>
> >> >> __________________________________________________
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> >> >> __________________________________________________
> >> >>
> >> >
> >> > __________________________________________________
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> >> >
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> --
> >>  David Bradley
> >> +1.206.234.3977
> >> dwbrad at gmail.com
> >>
> >> __________________________________________________
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> >>
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