[Rhodes22-list] POLITICAL-Palin Begins 2012 Campaign

David Bradley dwbrad at gmail.com
Wed Nov 26 11:06:03 EST 2008 

As Robert points out, the article is talking about the Republican
base, which represents a minority.  The most telling analysis I looked
at was the exit poll data (without any media spin), which I spent some
time digging through.  I can't seem to find a link to the data any
longer.  But from memory, it said that about 30% of voters consider
themselves conservative and voted overwhelmingly for McPalin.  That
about 40% consider themselves liberal and voted overswhelmingly for
Obama.  The middle third carried the election (as they always do) and
leaned marginally toward Obama.  I still contend that a more moderate
VP pick by McCain could have swung the election, or at least closed
the gap quite a bit.  None of your or Brad's arguments speak to the
moderate middle.  I get that Palin energized the Conservative base.
Could Palin have driven more Republicans to the polls?  Perhaps that
accounts for a point or two but that seems a stretch.

Dave


On Tue, Nov 25, 2008 at 11:12 PM, Herb Parsons <hparsons at parsonsys.com> wrote:
> You've been reading the wrong analsys'. I haven't read anything that
> puts a number, but there have been MANY pieces by conservatives that
> talk about how she energized the base, and pulled people to support McCain.
>
> David Bradley wrote:
>> Brad, do you really believe that?  "Despite what the pundits write,
>> McCain would have lost by 10 points without Palin."  I've not seen a
>> single piece of analysis that doesn't say Pailin cost McCain votes in
>> the centrist crowd.  I am not debating that she accomplished good
>> things in Alaska or that she isn't a viable conservative candidate.  I
>> just think she contributed to the defeat this time.
>>
>>
>> Dave
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Nov 25, 2008 at 5:52 PM, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Rummy,
>>>
>>> Sorry to burst your bubble but that is not going to happen.  Despite
>>> what the pundits write, McCain would have lost by 10 points without
>>> Palin.  There are still a few of us left who believe in ourselves and
>>> not some some 'gubment' program as our path to happiness and
>>> prosperity.  Will Palin make it to the Whitehouse?  Maybe, maybe not.
>>> Unlike "The One" where people project their hopes on a blank slate,
>>> Sarah Palin has a real record of accomplishments. Get use to is Rummy,
>>> Sarah has always written her own ticket and she's not losing sleep
>>> about your bitching.  Come to think of it, neither am I.
>>>
>>> Brad
>>>
>>> On Tue, Nov 25, 2008 at 7:42 PM,  <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Brad,
>>>> Nobody is worried about Palin, we would just appreciate it if she would go
>>>> home.....and stay there.
>>>>
>>>> Rummy
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> In a message dated 11/25/2008 7:34:06 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
>>>> flybrad at yahoo.com writes:
>>>>
>>>> Ben,
>>>>
>>>> Sooner or later, people will figure out that Sarah Palin is  the "real deal".
>>>>  She didn't make fools out of Big Oil CEO's by being  stupid despite the
>>>> howls of derision against her by you and your ilk.   When the patina of
>>>> "sacredness" has worn off The One, people will be hungry  for someone of substance.
>>>> Laugh your ass off while you can.  The  press and the 'leftards' wouldn't pay so
>>>> much attention to Palin if they  weren't worried about her.
>>>>
>>>> Brad
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --- On Tue, 11/25/08, Ben  Cittadino <bcittadino at dcs-law.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> From: Ben  Cittadino <bcittadino at dcs-law.com>
>>>>> Subject:  [Rhodes22-list]  POLITICAL-Palin Begins 2012 Campaign
>>>>> To:  rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
>>>>> Date: Tuesday, November 25, 2008, 6:04  PM
>>>>> November 25, 2008, 3:11 pm NYTimes Online
>>>>>
>>>>>  "Southern Exposure
>>>>> By Tobin Harshaw
>>>>> Well, for those of you who  thought Sarah Palin would
>>>>> quietly go North to the
>>>>> Future, it  appears that instead she's going Deep South:
>>>>> "Republican vice
>>>>>  presidential nominee Sarah Palin will make multiple
>>>>> campaign  appearances on
>>>>> behalf of Sen. Saxby Chambliss next week in  Georgia,
>>>>> serving as the
>>>>> political closer for the GOP senator  who is battling to win
>>>>> a second term,"
>>>>> reports CNN.
>>>>>
>>>>> "This is Palin's first campaign appearance on behalf of
>>>>>  another Republican
>>>>> candidate since losing her bid to become the  nation's
>>>>> first woman to serve
>>>>> as vice president. Palin will  attend a fundraiser on Sunday
>>>>> night, then
>>>>> appear at multiple  campaign stops on Monday in an effort to
>>>>> rally the GOP
>>>>> base to  turn out to vote for Chambliss. The incumbent
>>>>> Republican is facing  a
>>>>> strong challenge from Democrat Jim Martin. A runoff is
>>>>>  scheduled for next
>>>>> Tuesday, after neither candidate received the 50  percent
>>>>> plus one vote
>>>>> needed to win on Election Day."
>>>>>
>>>>> Doug Mataconis at Donklephant considers the strategy:
>>>>> "The  biggest challenge
>>>>> that both Chambliss and Martin face in the run-off  election
>>>>> is getting their
>>>>> voters to turn out to the polls,  since it's unlikely that
>>>>> voter turnout will
>>>>> be anywhere near  the level it reached on November 4th. To
>>>>> the extent that
>>>>> she's  able to motivate the base to get out and vote,
>>>>> Palin could  prove
>>>>> useful to Chambliss."
>>>>>
>>>>> Dr. Steven Taylor at  Poliblog thinks this may be more about
>>>>> Palin than
>>>>> Chambliss.  "First, the move is further evidence of
>>>>> Palin's likely  long-term
>>>>> ambitions," he writes. "Second, the move means that
>>>>>  Chambliss thinks that
>>>>> Palin plays well with the GOP base in a red  state like
>>>>> Georgia … Certainly
>>>>> if Chambliss wins, the trip  will be perceived as evidence
>>>>> that Palin is a
>>>>> serious actor  within the GOP going forward, at least within
>>>>> GOP circles."
>>>>>
>>>>> Palin or no Palin, Ed Morrissey at Hot Air is cautiously
>>>>>  optimistic about
>>>>> the G.O.P. chances:
>>>>>
>>>>> Voter  enthusiasm for Martin has declined since the general
>>>>> election.  Martin
>>>>> got his momentum from the massive numbers of Obama  voters,
>>>>> most of whom
>>>>> appear less interested in the remaining  down-ticket race.
>>>>> Chambliss may not
>>>>> have that problem, since  John McCain didn't generate an
>>>>> enthusiastic
>>>>> response from the  Republican base, meaning that
>>>>> Chambliss' voters will be
>>>>>  motivated more by Chambliss himself. Republicans have the
>>>>>  secondary
>>>>> motivation to deny Obama a filibuster-proof Senate  by
>>>>> ensuring Chambliss'
>>>>> re-election.
>>>>> Either way, it  looks like it will go down to the wire.
>>>>> Republicans around
>>>>> the  country who want to keep at least one potential check
>>>>> on the excesses  of
>>>>> single-party government had better start actively
>>>>>  supporting the Chambliss
>>>>> effort."
>>>>>
>>>>>  We can't make  this stuff up.
>>>>>
>>>>> Happy Thanksgiving;
>>>>>
>>>>> Ben  C.
>>>>> --
>>>>> View this message in context:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>> http://www.nabble.com/POLITICAL-Palin-Begins-2012-Campaign-tp20692288p20692288.html
>>>>
>>>>>  Sent from the Rhodes 22 mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
>>>>>
>>>>>
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>
> --
> Herb Parsons
>
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-- 
David Bradley
+1.206.234.3977
dwbrad at gmail.com

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