[Rhodes22-list] Politics - Other Breaking News

[Brad Haslett]

This of course isn't as interesting as teen agers getting pregnant but
newsworthy anyway. Anbar province was turned over earlier in the week,
now this.

Brad

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US says troops could quit Baghdad soon

By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington

Published: September 3 2008 09:43 | Last updated: September 3 2008 18:21

General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, said declining
violence in Baghdad raised the possibility that American combat troops
could leave the capital by next summer.

Asked in an interview with the Financial Times whether it was feasible
that US combat forces could leave Baghdad by July, he said:
"Conditions permitting, yeah."

His comments come as the US and Iraq hammer out the final details of a
long-term security agreement that reportedly outlines a potential
timeline for US combat troops to leave Iraqi cities by next summer,
and the country by 2011.

"The number of attacks in Baghdad lately has been, gosh, I think it's
probably less than five [a day] on average, and that's a city of seven
million people," said Gen Petraeus.

While declining to comment on the details of the security agreement,
Gen Petraeus said US combat forces had already pulled back from cities
in 13 of Iraq's 18 provinces. The sight of US soldiers exiting Baghdad
would be highly symbolic given the scale of violence that gripped the
city in 2006 and 2007.

Gen Petraeus leaves Iraq later this month to become head of Central
Command, which oversees US operations in the Middle East, Central Asia
and the Horn of Africa. Before his departure, the four-star general
will give President George W. Bush his final recommendation for troop
levels as commander in Iraq. He will continue to help shape policy on
Iraq in his new role.

Senior brass in the Pentagon have hoped conditions in Iraq would
permit further reductions this autumn following the withdrawal this
summer of the five "surge" combat brigades to reduce the stress on the
military and free up troops for Afghanistan.

Gen Petraeus declined to outline his recommendation, but conceded that
the recent unexpected withdrawal of 2,000 Georgian troops during the
conflict with Russia had caused "some wrinkles".

"You have to look at various contingencies and make assumptions, and
in some cases if you have an uncertainty, then needless to say you
hedge your bets a bit."

His recommendation will come during the closing stretch of the US
presidential campaign in which Iraq remains a key issue. Barack Obama,
the Democratic candidate, has outlined the kind of fixed timetable
opposed by Gen Petraeus and other senior brass by vowing to remove
troops within 16 months of taking office.

Gen Petraeus declined to say whether he would continue to voice such
opposition if Mr Obama became the next commander-in-chief.

"What needs to take place is a good discussion on missions, on
objectives, on levels of risk associated with various courses of
action and that's, I think, what will take place whoever's elected,
frankly."

Overall, Gen Petraeus said Iraq was a "dramatically changed country"
from when he assumed command in February 2007. He said attacks had
plummeted from a daily rate of 180 in June 2007 to about 25 recently.
He mused that "there is certainly a degree of hope that was not
present 19 months ago".

Gen Petraeus welcomed the increased capability of the Iraqi security
forces and the fact that 70 per cent of Iraqi army battalions are now
taking the lead in military operations. The US military passed a
milestone when it this week handed over responsibility for the former
bloody province of Anbar province to Iraqi security forces.

But he also urged caution, saying there were "innumerable challenges
out there still. Make no bones about it". These include resolving the
final status of oil-rich Kirkuk, key provincial elections, and
remaining ethno-sectarian tensions. And while al-Qaeda was greatly
diminished, he said, it still had the capability to deliver lethal
attacks.

Military experts attribute the decline in violence to the surge, as
well as to a ceasefire by Shia militias aligned with Moqtada al-Sadr,
the firebrand cleric, and the emergence of "Sons of Iraq", roughly
100,000 predominantly Sunnis who switched sides to fight with the US
against al-Qaeda.

In recent weeks, however, the US has grown concerned about an apparent
crackdown by Nouri al-Maliki, the Shia prime minister, on some senior
members of the Sunni groups. Gen Petraeus said that while it was "a
concern", Mr Maliki had promised not to "cut loose" the "Sons of Iraq"
who are paid about $300 a month to protect local neighbourhoods.

Gen Petraeus expressed frustration at the slow speed of integrating
some of the "Sons of Iraq" into the Iraqi army, although he
acknowledged that it was a "very emotional topic" for many Iraqi
politicians because of previous sectarian fighting between the Shia
and Sunni.

When Gen Petraeus last testified before Congress in April, he was very
critical of alleged Iranian support for Iraqi militias. Asked why his
command had never produced the evidence it promised to support its
allegations, Gen Petraeus said the move was in deference to the Iraqi
leadership who wanted to deliver the evidence privately to Tehran.

Asked whether Iranian meddling in Iraq had subsided, Gen Petraeus said
the leaders of the so-called "special groups" militias had fled Iraq
during the recent military campaigns initiated by Mr Maliki in Basra
and Baghdad. "They're in Iran, they're in Lebanon, they're in Syria
and so…there's very much a wait and see attitude."

At Centcom, Gen Petraeus will also assume overall responsibility for
Afghanistan. He declined to speculate about whether Afghanistan would
require an Iraq-like surge of more than the three additional brigades
the Pentagon currently believes are necessary. But he pointed out that
the situation in Afghanistan was very different to that in Iraq.

"There are limitations in Afghanistan that are not found here…Iraq's
infrastructure is still vastly greater than that of Afghanistan. So,
there was an ability here to absorb a substantial number of forces in
a relatively short period of time," he said.

"I think, again, the infrastructure challenges, the transportation and
logistical challenges, and perhaps, again, the desires of national
authorities and so forth are all different. So, again, it would be
very premature to speculate about what might or might not be added to
Afghanistan."

 The Financial Times Limited 2008