[Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call

[Jim White]

Rummy
True....I am staying aboard to keep lines adjusted. Looks like the worst part will be a 2-4 foot storm surge here if the thing goes in as predicted around Port Lavaca. Have a locker full of good rums here (inluding a big unopened bottle of Mt. Gay)....You'd be proud!
jw

--- On Wed, 9/10/08, R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:

From: R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com>
Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call
To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
Date: Wednesday, September 10, 2008, 10:53 AM

jw,
Glad to hear you are getting ready. As long as you are on the west side of  
her, you should be okey dokey.
 
Rummy
 
 
In a message dated 9/10/2008 11:44:25 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
lemenagerie22 at yahoo.com writes:

Battening the hatches again. Right now the projected path is pretty far  
north (as always depending ona couple of factors).....
jw

--- On  Tue, 9/9/08, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:

From: Brad  Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com>
Subject: [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up  Call
To: "The Rhodes 22 Email List"  <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
Date: Tuesday, September 9, 2008, 9:39  PM

Info for Texas coastal Rhodies -  Brad

----------------

September 9th, 2008 6:07 pm
Ike reaches  the Gulf; could be a "worst-case" storm for Texas


Hurricane Ike has  emerged in the Gulf of Mexico, having survived its
long passage over Cuba  relatively intact, and it has a good chance of
intensifying into a major  hurricane — and aiming for a highly
vulnerable part of the Texas coast.  According to Dr. Jeff Masters,
"There is a significant chance that Ike will  be the worst hurricane to
hit Texas in over 40 years."

The standard  caveats apply. Landfall in Texas is more than three days
away. We don't  know — we can't know — exactly where Ike will go,
how
strong it will  get, or whether it will maintain its strength all the
way to the coast.  There are plenty of plausible scenarios which are
not "worst case." The  odds do not favor a calamity. They never do,
at
72+ hours out. But Ike is a  real threat.

This new sense of worry is fueled partly by the track. As  I mentioned
earlier, the trend toward a landfall in more sparsely populated  south
Texas or northern Mexico has halted, and now the computer model  tracks
are inching north — and getting uncomfortably close to the  heavily
populated, highly vulnerable Houston/Galveston region. In  Eric
Berger's words, "if the models were to shift just 50 or so miles  up
the coast, a landfall at Freeport or just to the northeast would  bring
the strongest winds to Houston."

The new official forecast  track brings Ike ashore just north of Corpus
Christi, and the National  Hurricane Center's 5:00 PM discussion
acknowledges that this may be too far  south:

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE  SPREAD OF THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS…WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING  LESS RIDGING TO
THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING THEIR  TRACKS
NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF RUNS.  IKE
IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE  SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL  FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE…BUT ALL OF THE  BETTER
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

Translation:  if the models don't lurch back to the left, the NHC's
forecast landfall  point will move further away from Corpus Christi and
closer to Freeport —  the west edge of Houston/Galveston's
"worst-case"
landfall  zone.

The other reason for alarm is Ike's failure to fall apart during  its
on-again, off-again overland trek across Cuba, which has just  ended.
It took Ike almost 48 hours to traverse the island from end to  end,
and the storm's winds diminished from 135 mph a few hours  before
landfall, and 125 mph at landfall, to 75 mph now. But the storm's  core
remains structurally well put-together, which is the key to  future
strengthening.

This is a crucial difference between Gustav  and Ike. Although Gustav's
passage over Cuba was quite brief — just a few  hours — the effects of
land interaction, combined with wind shear, were  enough to
significantly disrupt the storm's central core, delaying  rapid
intensification until it was too late for Gustav to re-intensify  into
a monster. By contrast, Ike's much lengthier passage of Cuba did  not
have the same effect. According to the National Hurricane  Center's
5:00 PM discussion:

IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY  WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA . . . IT  APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT
ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY  FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

Dr. Masters summarizes  things even more bluntly:

All indications are that Ike  will intensify into a very dangerous
major hurricane . . . [S]atellite  loops show that Ike has maintained a
large, well-organized circulation  during its passage of Cuba. The 4 pm
EDT center fix from the Hurricane  Hunters found a central pressure of
968 mb, which is characteristic of a  Category 2 hurricane. Passage
over Cuba did not disrupt the storm enough to  keep Ike from
intensifying into a major hurricane over the Gulf of  Mexico.

The barometric pressure issue is particularly interesting.  Ike's
pressure just before landfall in Cuba was 945 mb, typical of  a
borderline Category 3/4 hurricane, which is exactly what Ike was  at
the time. During the passage of Cuba, the pressure rose "only" to 
968
mb, its current value, which is typical of a borderline Category  2/3
hurricane — not the borderline tropical storm/Cat. 1 that Ike  actually
is. One reason for this, as I understand it, is that Ike has  responded
to land interaction by spreading out its wind field over a wider  area,
which (I believe) tends to cause a hurricane to be  "weaker,"
wind-speed-wise, than its central pressure would normally  indicate.

If I'm not mistaken — and here I must add the caveat that I'm  not a
meteorologist, I just play one on the Internet, so someone  please
correct me if I'm wrong — it would not be surprising to see  Ike
"tighten up" a bit over the Gulf, allowing its winds to ramp up  to
something more typically in line with the low barometric pressure.  In
other words, Ike might not actually have to "deepen" all that much 
to
become a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.

In any case, assuming Ike  does become a major hurricane over the Gulf
— which seems likely, given its  core's organization, and given that
both the Loop Current and a Loop  Current Eddy stand between it and
Texas — the big question is whether, and  how much, it will then weaken
before making landfall.

Alan Sullivan  (who, like me, is an amateur weather buff, not a
meteorologist) foresees  substantial weakening:

[Ike's track will take it] into a  zone of shear, cooler water, and
interaction with an approaching cold  front. Such a scenario could
yield very heavy rains, but it would not be  likely to put a major
hurricane ashore. Ike would weaken.

But Dr.  Masters, who is a meteorologist (indeed, the co-founder of
Weather  Underground), is less confident of such an eventuality:

The wind shear for Friday has changed, and we are expecting wind
shear to  remain around 15 knots, which is still low enough to allow
intensification.  There is much higher oceanic heat content off the
Texas coast than was  present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus,
it is more likely that  Ike will be able to maintain major hurricane
status as it approaches the  coast. . . . Given the impressive
appearance of Ike on satellite imagery,  and the forecasts of high heat
content and low shear along its path, I  would be surprised if Ike hit
as anything weaker than a Category 2  hurricane with 100 mph winds.
Here's my rough probability break-down for  Ike's strength at landfall,
I forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major  hurricane at landfall:

Category 1 or weaker:  20%
Category 2: 30%
Category 3:  30%
Category 4 or 5: 20%

A major-hurricane landfall  anywhere along the middle Texas coast would
be a very bad thing, as Dr.  Masters points out with his explanation of
why "Texas is highly vulnerable  to storm surge." But nowhere is the
threat greater than in   Houston/Galveston, as this 2005 article by
Berger explains in  detail:

Houston's perfect storm would feed on late  summer's warm waters as
it barreled northward across the Gulf of Mexico,  slamming into the
coast near Freeport.

A landfall here  would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant,
where the waves move in the  same direction as the storm, to overflow
Galveston Bay. Within an hour or  two, a storm surge, topping out at 20
feet or more, would flood the homes  of 600,000 people in Harris
County. The surge also would block the natural  drainage of flooded
inland bayous and streams for a day or  more.

Coastal residents who ignored warnings to flee  would have no hope
of escape as waters swelled and winds roiled around  their homes. Very
likely, hundreds, perhaps even thousands, would  die.

Meanwhile, as the storm moved over western Harris  County, its most
dangerous winds, well in excess of 120 mph even inland,  would lash the
Interstate 45 corridor, including Clear Lake, the Texas  Medical Center
and downtown.

Many older buildings  could not withstand such winds.

Anything not tied down,  from trees to mobile homes to light poles,
would become missiles, surreally  tumbling and flying through the air,
flattening small houses, shattering  skyscraper windows and puncturing
roofs.

"Unfortunately, we're looking at massive devastation," said
Roy
Dodson,  president of the engineering firm Dodson & Associates, which
Harris  County asked to model realistic "worst-case scenarios" for a
major  hurricane hitting the area.

Dodson's firm modeled more  than 100 storms of varying power, speed
and landfall. It concluded that a  large Category 4 or Category 5 . . .
would cause as much as $40 billion to  $50 billion in damage.

Now, before anyone accuses me of "hype," please  re-read the second
paragraph of this post. The odds do not favor a  calamity. But a
worst-case scenario, or something close to it, is now a  realistic
possibility, albeit one that's far from certain. Texas residents  need
to watch this storm very closely, and not be lulled into a false  sense
of security by previous false alarms (Rita, Edouard, etc.). Ike  could
be the real deal. Maybe it won't be — but it could be.

Berger,  circa 2008, says of Ike: "The bottom line is that the Houston
area could  face a near worst-case scenario with Ike, although I'd
still peg the  chances of this happening at one-in-four, or less." He
is, I believe,  including any major hurricane landfall (Cat. 3 or
above, not just Cat. 4 or  5) hitting between Freeport and Galeveston
in his "near worst-case"  category.

Dr. Masters, for his part, spells out "a realistic worse-case  scenario
for Texas":

There is a significant chance  that Ike will be the worst hurricane
to hit Texas in over 40 years. The  latest run of the HWRF and GFDL
models paint a realistic worst-case  scenario for Texas. These models
bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4  hurricane (which I give a 20%
probability of happening). The HWRF predicts  a 170-mile stretch of
coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or  greater. A
100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3  strength
and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to  50
miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall.  A
100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of  10-15
feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes  landfall
receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla  of
1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph  winds
at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a  180-mile
stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was  recorded
at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla  hit
over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a  15-foot
storm surge into the bays along the south side of the  city.

Bottom line: for folks in Texas, it is not time to panic, but it  is
time to prepare. Determine, if you don't know already, whether  you're
in an evacuation zone. The rule of thumb is "run from the water,  hide
from the wind," so unless you're in a storm surge zone, a flood 
plain,
a poorly constructed home, or quite close to the shore, you can,  and
probably should, plan to hunker down rather than get the hell out.  But
don't listen to me — listen to your local authorities. And if you  are
in an evacuation zone, make the necessary preparations to  leave
tomorrow or Thursday, if and when the order comes.

Again,  listen to the local authorities on this: if they tell you to
leave, you  should leave. Ike is nothing to trifle with. As I've said,
it may, for a  variety of reasons, prove to be something less than a
disaster — and if  this happens, it will not mean the storm was
"overhyped," it will just mean  you got lucky. Be grateful, if so.
But
you should not play Russian roulette  with this storm. Yes, previous
hurricanes have made lucky turns. Yes,  last-minute weakening often
happens, and is possible here. But those  fortuities are not
guaranteed. Take Ike  seriously.

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