[Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling

[Brad Haslett]

Philip,

We will never "run out" of oil but it is a finite resource and it is getting
more expensive to find.  Google "Hubberts Peak" and start reading the
thousands of hits.  Even big oil, most recently Exxon, acknowledges Hubbert
was right.  That said, we do sit on vast resources, ANWR and both coastal
shelves, and Florida, that are not allowed to be developed.  Even if we
could wean ourselves completely from foreign oil it would not solve our
Islamofaciast problem - in fact, it could make it worse before it gets
better.

Most biodiesel in the US is made from soybeans because that is the
crop subsidy de jour (corn for ethanol is worse).  Europeans use rapeseed
which grows  here as well. Then there's hemp oil but let's not go there. If
we planted hedgerow to hedgerow nationwide we couldn't replace all the oil
we consume, but, we could sure make a serious dent in it.  All we need is
for the price of oil to rise and more biodiesel plants will come on line.
The price needs to stay at $3 per gallon and above.  Investment for
biodiesel projects has been easy to attract in the last year, not so easy
now.

Since oil company profits will take a huge dive this next quarter from the
last, I assume the same members of congress who wanted to pass a windfall
profit tax on big oil will support a big oil profit subsidy bill?

Long live free markets!

Brad


On 10/9/06, Philip <3drecon at comcast.net> wrote:
>
> Rob,
>   I love the discussion about bio-diesel and absolutely endorse the idea
> that we can make renewable fuel, but when you start to mention "big oil"
> you
> lose me.  The oil companies are regulated to death.  They can't drill here
> or there.  We sit on huge oil reserves but put ourselves at the mercy of
> foreign oil interests.  In the 1970s we were told by the "experts" we
> would
> run out of oil in 30 years.  We use more than ever and we haven't run out.
> I remember reading an article about wells that had supposedly gone dry in
> Texas.  Geologists were finding oil in them again.  Oil may not be
> renewable
> and we may run out.  One estimate I read was 500 years, others are sooner.
> We should be able to find alternatives within that time.  Bio-diesel looks
> like a good one, if not the only one.
>    Did you hear anything about a bio-diesel company going online in
> Kentucky or Tennessee?   I read something about it a couple of months ago
> in
> a news article.  It said they were looking for distributors.  If you look
> up
> bio-diesel on the web a bunch of sites come up that are "how-to" make your
> own and the business end of it.  Apparently there is more than one way to
> make it too.
>
> Philip
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From:   rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
> [mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org]  On Behalf Of Rob Lowe
> Sent:   Monday, October 09, 2006 2:30 PM
> To:     The Rhodes 22 mail list
> Subject:        Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
>
> The diesel engine was designed to run off of vegetable oil.  And while
> used
> cooking oil is a waste from a restaurant's perspective, it's not thrown
> away.  Most is picked up by rendering companies where is gets turned into
> a
> lot of products, animal foods among them. It's interesting here at VT that
> a
> group of students are doing a bio-diesel demonstration project and wanted
> used cooking oils from the dining halls which refused to give it to them
> because it was being sold to the rendering company.  To mine mind, this
> "hydrogen economy" the government is touting is just another tip of the
> hat
> to big oil.  Ever tried to produce hydrogen in your back yard?  Biodiesel
> makes a whole lot more sense and can run in existing diesel engines.  If
> it's good enough for Willie, it's good enough for me. - Rob
>
> http://www.wnbiodiesel.com/
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Philip" <3drecon at comcast.net>
> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> Sent: Monday, October 09, 2006 2:16 PM
> Subject: RE: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
>
>
> > I have a 2005 GMC Diesel.  GMC said the engine is made by
> Mitsubishi.  The
> > neat thing about diesels is they can run on cooking oil (I think we've
> all
> > seen the newspaper articles and the Mythbusters recently did a
> segement).
> > That is definitely a renewable resource.  Right now, the restaurants
> throw
> > that stuff away.
> >
> > Philip
> >
> >  -----Original Message-----
> > From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
> > [mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org]  On Behalf Of Brad Haslett
> > Sent: Monday, October 09, 2006 1:31 PM
> > To: The Rhodes 22 mail list
> > Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> >
> > Hank,
> >
> > You found the problem!  It just doesn't add up to buy a hybrid, and,
> they're
> > not as environmentally friendly as people think.  Where do you dispose
> of
> > the old battery?  Most batteries are recycled these days so that may not
> be
> > that big a problem but this is, it takes about four years of driving to
> make
> > up for the energy used to build your hybrid over the energy consumed
> driving
> > your old gas guzzler.  Diesels are the way to go - after you've driven
> your
> > gas guzzler to it's bitter end.  The railroad and trucking industry
> figured
> > this out a long time ago. GM killed the diesel car business in the early
> > 80's with their POS converted gas to diesel engine.  The Europeans are
> > way ahead of us on this one.  Hyundai is building a diesel/electric
> hybrid
> > for the China market (we own two pieces of Hyundai construction
> equipment
> > and are impressed with their quality).  I'm watching that one!
> >
> > Gas prices are expected to remain low for awhile which means people will
> > forget the pain they just experienced.  I'll keep my 12 year old Lexus
> for
> > another 100,000 miles and see what's on the market then.
> >
> > Brad
> >
> >
> > On 10/9/06, Hank <hnw555 at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > Bill,
> > >
> > > On the subject of hybrid cars, we recently bought a new car and we
> were
> > > looking at the Honda Civic, both standard and hybrid.  For us, the
> math
> > > just
> > > didn't work out and we ended up buying the standard version. I'll show
> you
> > > what I mean.  FYI, both of the cause were comparable equipped with the
> > > only
> > > real difference being the drivetrain.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Honda Civic
> > >
> > > MPG
> > >
> > > Gas Cost/Gal
> > >
> > > Annual Miles
> > >
> > > Gas/year (Mileage/MPG)
> > >
> > > Gas Cost/year
> > >
> > > Veh Cost
> > >
> > > # of years to break even
> > >
> > > Regular
> > >
> > > 30
> > >
> > > 2.5
> > >
> > > 15000
> > >
> > > 500
> > >
> > > 1250
> > >
> > > 18000
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Hybrid
> > >
> > > 50
> > >
> > > 2.5
> > >
> > > 15000
> > >
> > > 300
> > >
> > > 750
> > >
> > > 22000
> > >
> > > 8
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > At a savings of $500 a year in gas, it would take 8 years for the
> hybrid
> > > to
> > > break even with the normal engine version because of the increased
> > > purchase
> > > price. To me, that is just not economically feasible.
> > > Hank
> > >
> > > On 10/9/06, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Saroj,
> > > >
> > > > Just found this.  Be careful on geothermal.  My brother tried it and
> got
> > > > burned--no, that's a bad word word in this instance--he got
> frozen--it
> > > > sucked so much water out of the ground that there was none left for
> > > > cooking or bathing--not to mention that it got lukewarm very
> quickly.
> > > >
> > > > Bill Effros
> > > >
> > > > PS -- I've rented the straight diesel cars in Europe and they are
> > > > sensational.  You can't tell they are diesels any more except when
> you
> > > > keep passing gas pumps without needing any more fuel.  I am
> seriously
> > > > considering a hybrid Camry for myself.
> > > >
> > > > Saroj Gilbert wrote:
> > > > > I've heard the deisel - electric cars are available in Europe
> now..
> so
> > > > > maybe not so far away.
> > > > >
> > > > > I am planning on geothermal which should certainly help with the
> > > > > cooling... as it turns out I have to dig a well on this property
> even
> > > > > though it is fairly Urban... a very old and small neighborhood
> where
> > > > > most have wells already so no impetus to provide city
> water.  which
> is
> > > > > just fine with me. The well drilling company I plan to use already
> has
> > > > > experience drilling the geothermal holes as well... so one-stop
> > > > shopping.
> > > > >
> > > > > Also already planning on the SIP approach... trying to blend the
> > > > > energy-efficiency with some interesting architecture aside from
> the
> > > > > typical Colonial or brick ranch that is common in this area.
> Thought
> > > > > seriously about doing a dome, but decided against it for this area
> for
> > > > > asset-protection reasons.
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks for the good info!
> > > > >
> > > > > Saroj
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message ----- From: "Brad Haslett"
> <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > > > > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > > > Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 1:01 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Bill & Saroj,
> > > > >
> > > > > Bill, the Jetta will work for me.  I've owned a couple of early
> 80's
> > > > > diesel
> > > > > Rabbits and a diesel Audi 4000 (same drive train) The Rabbit
> hatchback
> > > > is
> > > > > coming back but I prefer a sedan.  I flew GDL, Mexico all last
> month
> > > > > where
> > > > > the Jetta is built.  They just settled their strike and hopefully
> the
> > > > > quality will be good.
> > > > >
> > > > > Saroj, diesel-hybrids are off the shelf technology and my company
> did
> > > a
> > > > > joint-venture with Eaton to produce diesel-hybrid delivery
> > > trucks.  Duh!
> > > > > Think trains and WW2 submarines.  You should expect 80mpg+ when
> they
> > > > come
> > > > > but when will that be?  I'll move earlier and go with a straight
> > > > > diesel and
> > > > > hope for rapeseed biodiesel.  The only way to go with the home is
> > > > > insulated
> > > > > concrete forms and geo-thermal radiant heating.  Cooling is
> another
> > > > > issue.
> > > > > A nuke powerplant running A/C is the ticket.  You have no control
> > > > > where your
> > > > > electrons come from but they probably come from coal.
> > > > >
> > > > > Didn't we have this same discussion in the 70's?
> > > > >
> > > > > Brad
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > On 9/15/06, Saroj Gilbert <saroj at pathfind.net> wrote:
> > > > >>
> > > > >> I hear you on that... as for me... I'm looking to diesel hybrid
> for
> > > my
> > > > >> next
> > > > >> car... and currently doing intensive research on how to make my
> new
> > > > >> house
> > > > >> (yet to be built) use as little non-renewable energy as
> possible...
> > > > >> quite
> > > > >> an
> > > > >> interesting exploration for me... refreshing information that I
> > > hadn't
> > > > >> read
> > > > >> too much about since I subscribed to Mother Earth News in the
> > > > >> 70's.  Heating
> > > > >> shouldn't be a problem but dealing with the hot, humid summers
> will
> > > be
> > > > >> challenging.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Its hard to balance the economics on electricity usage in this
> area
> > > > >> (S.E.
> > > > >> VA) since it is so very low... 6 cents a KW if I remember
> correctly;
> > > > >> however
> > > > >> I feel strongly about it and will do whatever I can... luckily I
> work
> > > > >> out
> > > > >> of
> > > > >> my home and the new house will be so close to a lot of services
> that
> > > I
> > > > >> should be able to ride the bike a lot of places.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Saroj
> > > > >>
> > > > >> ----- Original Message -----
> > > > >> From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > > > >> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > > >> Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 11:54 AM
> > > > >> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Saroj,
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Maybe, I don't agree with all the premises of the article but
> > > > everything
> > > > >> does line up for a fall, just not as far as the author
> > > suggested.  The
> > > > >> unfortunate repercussion is that it will encourage us to go back
> to
> > > our
> > > > >> foolish ways.  Peak Oil is coming!  The folks who have the most
> oil
> > > are
> > > > >> still the same folks who hate us the most.  The two fastest
> growing
> > > oil
> > > > >> consuming nations, China and India, aren't slowing down. China
> > > doesn't
> > > > >> give
> > > > >> a shit about anything but China, and they're cutting deals
> everywhere
> > > > >> for
> > > > >> every commodity.  I can't make my jet or our equipment burn less
> > > > >> fuel, but
> > > > >> my next car *will *get 50mpg+.  Hopefully it won't smell like
> shrimp.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Brad
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >> On 9/15/06, Saroj Gilbert <saroj at pathfind.net> wrote:
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > That would be good news...
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > >> > From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> > > > >> > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> > > > >> > Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 9:23 AM
> > > > >> > Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/home/>
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > Thursday, September 14, 2006 - 12:00 AM
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > *.*
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > **
> > > > >> > *
> > > > >> > **Analyst predicts plunge in gas prices*
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > *By Kevin G. Hall*
> > > > >> > *McClatchy Newspapers*
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > WASHINGTON - The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude
> oil
> > > > >> could
> > > > >> > mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline
> prices
> > > to
> > > > >> lows
> > > > >> > not seen since the late 1990s - perhaps as low as $1.15 a
> gallon.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > "All the hurricane flags are flying" in oil markets, said
> Philip
> > > > >> Verleger,
> > > > >> > a
> > > > >> > noted energy consultant who was a lone voice several years ago
> in
> > > > >> warning
> > > > >> > that oil prices would soar. Now, he says, they appear to be
> poised
> > > > >> for a
> > > > >> > dramatic plunge.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > Crude-oil prices have fallen about $14, or roughly 17 percent,
> from
> > > > >> their
> > > > >> > July 14 peak of $78.40. After falling seven straight days, they
> > > rose
> > > > >> > slightly Wednesday in trading on the New York Mercantile
> Exchange,
> > > to
> > > > >> > $63.97, partly in reaction to a government report showing fuel
> > > > >> inventories
> > > > >> > a
> > > > >> > bit lower than expected. But the overall price drop is expected
> to
> > > > >> > continue,
> > > > >> > and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > Here's why:
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because
> the
> > > > >> world's
> > > > >> > oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand,
> > > > >> > particularly
> > > > >> > from China and India. Spare oil-production capacity grew so
> tight
> > > > that
> > > > >> > market players feared that any disruption to oil production
> could
> > > > >> create
> > > > >> > shortages.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria, escalating
> > > > tensions
> > > > >> > over
> > > > >> > Iran's nuclear program, violence between Israel and Lebanon
> that
> > > > might
> > > > >> > spread to oil-producing neighbors, and the prospect that
> hurricanes
> > > > >> might
> > > > >> > topple oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > Oil traders bet that such worrisome developments would drive up
> the
> > > > >> future
> > > > >> > price of oil. Oil is traded in contracts for future delivery,
> and
> > > > >> > companies
> > > > >> > that take physical delivery of oil are just a small part of
> total
> > > > >> trading.
> > > > >> > Large pension and commodities funds are the big traders and
> they're
> > > > >> > seeking
> > > > >> > profits. They've sunk $105 billion or more into oil futures in
> > > recent
> > > > >> > years,
> > > > >> > according to Verleger. Their bets that oil prices would rise in
> the
> > > > >> future
> > > > >> > bid up the price of oil.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > That, in turn, led users of oil to create stockpiles as
> cushions
> > > > >> against
> > > > >> > supply disruptions and even higher future prices. Now
> inventories
> > > > >> of oil
> > > > >> > are
> > > > >> > approaching 1990 levels.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil
> > > > >> prices are
> > > > >> > ebbing. Tensions over Israel, Lebanon and Nigeria are easing.
> The
> > > > >> > hurricane
> > > > >> > season has presented no threat so far to the Gulf of Mexico.
> The
> > > U.S.
> > > > >> peak
> > > > >> > summer driving season is over, so gasoline demand is falling.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began
> sliding.
> > > > With
> > > > >> oil
> > > > >> > inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are
> expected
> > > > to
> > > > >> cut
> > > > >> > production. As refiners cut production, oil companies
> increasingly
> > > > >> risk
> > > > >> > getting stuck with excess oil supplies. There's already
> anecdotal
> > > > >> evidence
> > > > >> > of oil companies chartering tankers to store excess oil.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > All this is turning financial markets increasingly bearish on
> oil.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > "If we continue to build inventories, and if we have a warm
> winter
> > > > >> like
> > > > >> we
> > > > >> > had last winter, you could see a large fall in the price of
> oil,"
> > > > said
> > > > >> > Gary
> > > > >> > Pokoik, who manages Hedge Ventures Energy in Los Angeles, an
> energy
> > > > >> hedge
> > > > >> > fund. "I think there is still a lot of risk in the market."
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > As it stands now, the recent oil-price slump has brought the
> > > national
> > > > >> > average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline down to $2.59,
> according
> > > to
> > > > >> the
> > > > >> > AAA motor club. In the Seattle area, prices per gallon have
> fallen
> > > to
> > > > >> > $2.856
> > > > >> > currently from $3.071 a month ago, a decline of 7 percent,
> > > > >> according to
> > > > >> > AAA.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will
> get
> > > > worse
> > > > >> and
> > > > >> > run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts,
> Verleger
> > > > >> said,
> > > > >> > it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or
> less
> a
> > > > >> barrel,
> > > > >> > at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as
> > > $1.15
> > > > >> per
> > > > >> > gallon.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > Other experts won't guess at a floor price, but they agree that
> a
> > > > race
> > > > >> to
> > > > >> > the bottom could break out.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > "The market may test levels here that are too low to be
> sustained,"
> > > > >> said
> > > > >> > Clay Seigle, an analyst at Cambridge Energy Research
> Associates,
> a
> > > > >> > consultancy in Boston.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > On Monday, the oil-producing cartel OPEC hinted that if prices
> fall
> > > > >> > precipitously, OPEC members would cut production to lift them.
> But
> > > > >> that
> > > > >> > would take time.
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > "That takes six to nine months. If we don't have a really cold
> > > winter
> > > > >> here
> > > > >> > [creating a demand for oil], prices will fall. Literally, you
> don't
> > > > >> know
> > > > >> > where the floor is," Verleger said. "In a market like this, if
> > > things
> > > > >> > start
> > > > >> > falling ... prices could take you back to the 1999 levels. It
> has
> > > > >> nothing
> > > > >> > to
> > > > >> > do with production."
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/news/general/copyright.html>
> > > > >> > __________________________________________________
> > > > >> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> > > > >> >
> > > > >> > __________________________________________________
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