[Rhodes22-list] Global warming and Lake Hartwellfreezing over...

[john Belanger]

thanks.

Ronald Lipton <rlipton at earthlink.net> wrote:  I do know something about this stuff (more than I know about sailing)
so I will try to outline a bit of the history of the science.
Global climate became a subject of study in the 1930's.
There was some indication then, by looking at the rather sparse weather
records that there had been some warming over the past century.
Most took this to be part of a local cycle, but the weather data was 
untrustworthy
and centered on the Western Hemisphere. Studies in the 50s and 60s
focussed on the competing effects of injection of dust and smog, which leads 
to
cooling, and greenhouse gas effects, which would cause warming. In the
same period studies began using ice cores and deep ocean sediments of
climate histories. Evidence for a 20,000 year cycle developed, with
larger swings in a 100,000 year period. This coincides with the period of
slight deviations of the earth's orbit. Ice cores showed a pattern
of rapid warming and slow cooling. These deviations, due to a wobble of the
axis, correspond to a tiny change in the total sunlight absorbed by the
earth. This, in turn, led to a realization of the sensitivity of the 
climate system
to small perterbations. One of the realizations was that greenhouse gas
effects could serve to amplify small changes in total sunlight.

On the smaller time scale this was obscured by a slow cooling trend in the
50's and 60's. This led to a period of confusion and contradictory 
predictions.
At that point climate models were not well enough developed and computing
power was insufficient to make reliable predictions from first principles. 
Since
that time the temperature trend has been much more dramatic. In adidtion
models have now been developed which can be used to understand the
climate system. These models are what global warming predictions are based 
on,
not "gee it's really hot today" or "it sure has been cold this winter". In 
that
sense climate is more a science that it has been in the past, able to make 
predictions
based on specific assumptions and verified by it's ability to reporduce 
effects such as the
el ninos and climatic effects of volcanic eruptions.

For those who really are interested in the basis and history of the climate 
instead of
quoting obscure Russian websites, take a look at the essays posted on the
American Institute of Physics website:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html


Ron
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Rik Sandberg" 
To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" 
Sent: Friday, January 04, 2008 8:24 AM
Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Global warming and Lake Hartwellfreezing 
over...


> Herb,
>
> Ha ha ha ...... that's a good one :-)
>
> I'm gonna' poke my head up just to make a prediction
>
> Sometime in the future .... the Nobel Prize selection committee (whoever
> they are) will look back at the day they chose to award Al Gore a Nobel
> Prize for his little slide show as the most embarrassing day of their
> lives. They'll likely never admit it though. :-)
>
> Spoken from the perspective of someone who should now be frozen in a
> glacier somewhere, had all the "global cooling" predictions of the
> "chicken littles" come true back in the seventies.
>
> Rik
>
> "Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity; and I'm not
> sure about the universe."
> - Albert Einstein
>
>
>
>
> Herb Parsons wrote:
>> Ed, haven't you figured it out?
>>
>> It all relates to the global cooling we were warned about when we were
>> kids. The global cooling created a global warming effect trough
>> transverse hyper-inversion induction. This global warming, in turn,
>> causes localized cooling (on a global scale) through the same process.
>>
>> I'm going to make a movie to explain it all, just as soon as my
>> fundraising kicks in. Want to start it off?
>>
>> (from the "they'll believe anything" department)
>>
>> Herb Parsons
>> S/V O'Jure - O'Day 25
>> S/V Reve de Pappa - Coronado 35
>>
>>
>> Tootle wrote:
>>
>>> The last few days have been a bit cooler near Lake Hartwell. Further 
>>> south,
>>> I hear of snow at Daytona Beach, Florida. So what is going on? Look at
>>> this analysis:
>>>
>>> http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html
>>>
>>> So how does that article square with Al Gore? Go pull you head out of 
>>> the
>>> sand?
>>>
>>> http://www.nabble.com/file/p14375865/Lake%2BHartwell%2BAfternoon.JPG
>>> Lake+Hartwell+Afternoon.JPG
>>>
>>> Ed K
>>> Greenville, SC, USA
>>> "In order to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first create the
>>> universe."
>>> Carl Sagan
>>>
>>>
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>>
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