[Rhodes22-list] Bill...expertise expose

[Brad Haslett]

Bill,

You pretty much nailed it when you said homes were over-valued. We disagree
on the effect easy and cheap mortgages had on the market. It was a factor.
Over 20% of this garden variety bubble was people flipping houses that they
couldn't or wouldn't have bought without easy access to the mortgage
market.  Not unlike that other garden variety bubble, the tulip craze in
Holland, there were no underlying economic reasons to support the run-up in
value (as opposed to local market conditions like a gazillion peasants
moving to Beijing or tens of thousands being displaced by Katrina).

Congress always reacts to these things too late and in the wrong direction
when they shouldn't react at all.  Banks and financial institutions got too
cute with their accounting and marketing and it will take a whole new
generation or two of MBA's to try that stunt again.  But, sooner or later
they will in a slightly different fashion.

The housing segment will be back on its feet soon enough.  The more
worrisome trend is transportation energy costs.  Some of the current price
of oil can be traced to a weak dollar and some to speculation, but the
'elephant in the room' is Peak Oil occurring at the same time as a rapid
rise in the middle class in India and China. We'll never run out of oil,
just oil at the price we want to pay.

Inflation?  Count on it!

Brad

On Wed, May 28, 2008 at 8:47 PM, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:

> Elle,
>
> I know how to sell homes quickly, I don't know anything more about
> cycles than anyone else.
>
> This cycle looks different.
>
> Nothing in my view has changed with regard to selling homes.  I still
> believe you can get more for your home selling it yourself in 5-Days
> than you can get any other way, and this allows you to time perceived
> cycles to fit your needs.
>
> Most of what you read in the newspapers is silly, in my view.  Mortgages
> didn't create this situation.  Homes were over-valued.  We all played
> along.
>
> We will see a lot of inflation which will allow the paper value of homes
> to increase, foreclosures to decrease, and people who don't own homes
> will suffer.
>
> It's a shame, and it hurts this country, but we really have no one to
> blame but ourselves.
>
> There is no such thing as a free lunch.
>
> Bill
>
>
>
> elle wrote:
> > Bill,
> > Good to hear that things went well.
> >
> > When we hit a slow patch on the list, it would be
> > instructive to hear your views on the housing
> > -mortgage situation. These cycles come & go, but I'd
> > be interested on your thoughts and if you have changed
> > anything to conform/adapt/flex with current en=vents
> > in the market.
> >
> > elle
> >
> > We can't change the angle of the wind....but we can adjust our sails.
> >
> >  1992 Rhodes 22   Recyc '06  "WaterMusic"   (Lady in Red)
> >
> >
> >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >
> >
> __________________________________________________
> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
>