[Rhodes22-list] Bill...expertise expose

[Bill Effros]

Flip side of the same coin.  They couldn't get easy and cheap mortgages 
if the banks couldn't get high appraisals.

I think people have the tulip craze wrong.  As I understand it, people 
were bidding on extremely rare bulbs that became the basis of a 
multi-billion dollar industry that has endured for centuries.  The fact 
that those varieties dropped in price when the importers were able to 
mass produce them is very different from most of the bubbles it has 
recently been compared to.

B.



Brad Haslett wrote:
> Bill,
>
> You pretty much nailed it when you said homes were over-valued. We disagree
> on the effect easy and cheap mortgages had on the market. It was a factor.
> Over 20% of this garden variety bubble was people flipping houses that they
> couldn't or wouldn't have bought without easy access to the mortgage
> market.  Not unlike that other garden variety bubble, the tulip craze in
> Holland, there were no underlying economic reasons to support the run-up in
> value (as opposed to local market conditions like a gazillion peasants
> moving to Beijing or tens of thousands being displaced by Katrina).
>
> Congress always reacts to these things too late and in the wrong direction
> when they shouldn't react at all.  Banks and financial institutions got too
> cute with their accounting and marketing and it will take a whole new
> generation or two of MBA's to try that stunt again.  But, sooner or later
> they will in a slightly different fashion.
>
> The housing segment will be back on its feet soon enough.  The more
> worrisome trend is transportation energy costs.  Some of the current price
> of oil can be traced to a weak dollar and some to speculation, but the
> 'elephant in the room' is Peak Oil occurring at the same time as a rapid
> rise in the middle class in India and China. We'll never run out of oil,
> just oil at the price we want to pay.
>
> Inflation?  Count on it!
>
> Brad
>
> On Wed, May 28, 2008 at 8:47 PM, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
>
>   
>> Elle,
>>
>> I know how to sell homes quickly, I don't know anything more about
>> cycles than anyone else.
>>
>> This cycle looks different.
>>
>> Nothing in my view has changed with regard to selling homes.  I still
>> believe you can get more for your home selling it yourself in 5-Days
>> than you can get any other way, and this allows you to time perceived
>> cycles to fit your needs.
>>
>> Most of what you read in the newspapers is silly, in my view.  Mortgages
>> didn't create this situation.  Homes were over-valued.  We all played
>> along.
>>
>> We will see a lot of inflation which will allow the paper value of homes
>> to increase, foreclosures to decrease, and people who don't own homes
>> will suffer.
>>
>> It's a shame, and it hurts this country, but we really have no one to
>> blame but ourselves.
>>
>> There is no such thing as a free lunch.
>>
>> Bill
>>
>>
>>
>> elle wrote:
>>     
>>> Bill,
>>> Good to hear that things went well.
>>>
>>> When we hit a slow patch on the list, it would be
>>> instructive to hear your views on the housing
>>> -mortgage situation. These cycles come & go, but I'd
>>> be interested on your thoughts and if you have changed
>>> anything to conform/adapt/flex with current en=vents
>>> in the market.
>>>
>>> elle
>>>
>>> We can't change the angle of the wind....but we can adjust our sails.
>>>
>>>  1992 Rhodes 22   Recyc '06  "WaterMusic"   (Lady in Red)
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> __________________________________________________
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>>>
>>>
>>>       
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