[Rhodes22-list] Hybrid Cars

Tue Oct 10 09:39:24 EDT 2006

Bill,

VW publishes 36 city and 42 mpg for the EPA estimates.  My friends who drive
them claim high 40's on the highway.

Unless you do a lot of city driving I don't see the advantage to a hybrid
and Hank's right on the money about the price disadvantage.

I love my Lexus but I bought it 8 years old with 50K miles sans the initial
depreciation.  For a luxury car, I think Hyundai is the better value.  The
unknown is resale value of the Hyundai but I tend to keep my cars for a good
long while.

Fan wants to upgrade her 99' Accord soon so I'm looking around the
marketplace.  She'll figure out on her own what she wants and then walk into
the dealership with a covey of Chinese for a bulk purchase. They'll gang-up
and beat the poor bastard into submission.  I've witnessed it with cars,
pianos, and enough other big-ticket items to feel sorry for the dealers.

Brad

On 10/10/06, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
>
> Brad,
>
> I rented the Jetta turbo-diesel in Italy.  Since what I was buying was
> liters in Euros, and what I was driving was kilometers, I have no idea
> of exactly how good my mileage was--but I've driven in Italy before, and
> I know what it cost me, and I know how seldom I had to fill up the
> Jetta, and I know how many trips I took...That thing was great!  And it
> didn't drive like a diesel, or sound like a diesel.  What is the mileage
> in those things--in terms I can understand?
>
> I've also rented a Sonata in the US (when you get older they start
> bumping you up to nicer cars for no extra money at the bottom of the
> line rental prices)--I was very impressed.
>
> I was originally planning to get a Lexus this time around (I wanted a
> car that could remember my ass) but Toyota is using the hybrid in the
> Lexus for speed, and that's not what I need right now.  (The Camry
> hybrid is actually faster off the line than many of the old hot rods we
> used to build when I was a kid.)
>
> I'm starting to see negative reviews on the Camry Hybrid, so the jury is
> still out on this one.  The only item of concern is an old style lunging
> cruise control--I don't know why this would be--my old Camry had this
> problem licked, and the car is in gas-engine mode when the cruise
> control is on, but I'll keep checking.  The book isn't due for
> publication until February.
>
> Bill Effros
>
> Brad Haslett wrote:
> > Bill,
> >
> > I can't argue with your choice of car, my Lexus ES-300 is basically a
> > Camry
> > drivetrain with some slightly different sheet metal.  They're great
> cars.
> > Have you driven the Volkswagon Jetta turbo-diesel?  It is not as nice
> > a car
> > as the Camry but the mileage is incredible.  If you aren't looking at
> > a  when
> > hybrid, also take a look at the Hyundai Azera or Sonata - they both
> > get good
> > reviews compared to Camry and Accord for a lot less money.
> >
> > Brad
> >
> >
> > On 10/9/06, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> Thanks, Hank,
> >>
> >> I did the same math, and came to the same conclusion.  But I have a
> >> special need, and that is why I'm buying the car.  I will be doing a
> >> book tour next Spring, the first of many.  I drive from city to city
> >> because it's so much less a hassle than flying.  My interest in the
> >> Toyota Camry is its range, which is better than 600 miles on a tankful.
> >>
> >> When you do the morning news you often have to be at the TV station
> >> before 6:00 am.  If you have driven a couple of hundred miles to get to
> >> the next city late at night, you don't want to have to drive around to
> >> find an open gas station, either late at night or early the next
> >> morning.  I like to sleep as close to the first TV station as possible,
> >> and often they are located in remote places with no nearby gas
> >> stations.  The huge range allows me to drive from one city to the next,
> >> hitting all the local TV stations the next morning before I have to
> fill
> >> the tank and get to the next town.
> >>
> >> This is also the reason for not buying a diesel.  In many places diesel
> >> is just too hard to come by.
> >>
> >> The last time I did this I bought a Camry that had a 500 plus mile
> >> range.  I didn't often get to the bottom of the tank, but a few times I
> >> did.  I liked the car--it was comfortable and quiet for repeated long
> >> trips.  The new one is supposed to have the same attributes, and the
> 600
> >> mile range is the big draw for me.
> >>
> >> Bill Effros
> >>
> >> Hank wrote:
> >> > Bill,
> >> >
> >> > On the subject of hybrid cars, we recently bought a new car and we
> >> were
> >> > looking at the Honda Civic, both standard and hybrid.  For us, the
> >> > math just
> >> > didn't work out and we ended up buying the standard version. I'll
> show
> >> > you
> >> > what I mean.  FYI, both of the cause were comparable equipped with
> the
> >> > only
> >> > real difference being the drivetrain.
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > Honda Civic
> >> >
> >> > MPG
> >> >
> >> > Gas Cost/Gal
> >> >
> >> > Annual Miles
> >> >
> >> > Gas/year (Mileage/MPG)
> >> >
> >> > Gas Cost/year
> >> >
> >> > Veh Cost
> >> >
> >> > # of years to break even
> >> >
> >> > Regular
> >> >
> >> > 30
> >> >
> >> > 2.5
> >> >
> >> > 15000
> >> >
> >> > 500
> >> >
> >> > 1250
> >> >
> >> > 18000
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > Hybrid
> >> >
> >> > 50
> >> >
> >> > 2.5
> >> >
> >> > 15000
> >> >
> >> > 300
> >> >
> >> > 750
> >> >
> >> > 22000
> >> >
> >> > 8
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > At a savings of $500 a year in gas, it would take 8 years for the
> >> > hybrid to
> >> > break even with the normal engine version because of the increased
> >> > purchase
> >> > price. To me, that is just not economically feasible.
> >> > Hank
> >> >
> >> > On 10/9/06, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> Saroj,
> >> >>
> >> >> Just found this.  Be careful on geothermal.  My brother tried it and
> >> got
> >> >> burned--no, that's a bad word word in this instance--he got
> >> frozen--it
> >> >> sucked so much water out of the ground that there was none left for
> >> >> cooking or bathing--not to mention that it got lukewarm very
> quickly.
> >> >>
> >> >> Bill Effros
> >> >>
> >> >> PS -- I've rented the straight diesel cars in Europe and they are
> >> >> sensational.  You can't tell they are diesels any more except when
> >> you
> >> >> keep passing gas pumps without needing any more fuel.  I am
> seriously
> >> >> considering a hybrid Camry for myself.
> >> >>
> >> >> Saroj Gilbert wrote:
> >> >> > I've heard the deisel - electric cars are available in Europe
> now..
> >> so
> >> >> > maybe not so far away.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > I am planning on geothermal which should certainly help with the
> >> >> > cooling... as it turns out I have to dig a well on this property
> >> even
> >> >> > though it is fairly Urban... a very old and small neighborhood
> >> where
> >> >> > most have wells already so no impetus to provide city
> water.  which
> >> is
> >> >> > just fine with me. The well drilling company I plan to use already
> >> has
> >> >> > experience drilling the geothermal holes as well... so one-stop
> >> >> shopping.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Also already planning on the SIP approach... trying to blend the
> >> >> > energy-efficiency with some interesting architecture aside from
> the
> >> >> > typical Colonial or brick ranch that is common in this area.
> >> Thought
> >> >> > seriously about doing a dome, but decided against it for this area
> >> for
> >> >> > asset-protection reasons.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Thanks for the good info!
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Saroj
> >> >> >
> >> >> > ----- Original Message ----- From: "Brad Haslett"
> >> <flybrad at gmail.com>
> >> >> > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> >> >> > Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 1:01 PM
> >> >> > Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Bill & Saroj,
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Bill, the Jetta will work for me.  I've owned a couple of early
> >> 80's
> >> >> > diesel
> >> >> > Rabbits and a diesel Audi 4000 (same drive train) The Rabbit
> >> hatchback
> >> >> is
> >> >> > coming back but I prefer a sedan.  I flew GDL, Mexico all last
> >> month
> >> >> > where
> >> >> > the Jetta is built.  They just settled their strike and
> >> hopefully the
> >> >> > quality will be good.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Saroj, diesel-hybrids are off the shelf technology and my company
> >> >> did a
> >> >> > joint-venture with Eaton to produce diesel-hybrid delivery trucks.
> >> >> Duh!
> >> >> > Think trains and WW2 submarines.  You should expect 80mpg+ when
> >> they
> >> >> come
> >> >> > but when will that be?  I'll move earlier and go with a straight
> >> >> > diesel and
> >> >> > hope for rapeseed biodiesel.  The only way to go with the home is
> >> >> > insulated
> >> >> > concrete forms and geo-thermal radiant heating.  Cooling is
> another
> >> >> > issue.
> >> >> > A nuke powerplant running A/C is the ticket.  You have no control
> >> >> > where your
> >> >> > electrons come from but they probably come from coal.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Didn't we have this same discussion in the 70's?
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Brad
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> > On 9/15/06, Saroj Gilbert <saroj at pathfind.net> wrote:
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> I hear you on that... as for me... I'm looking to diesel hybrid
> >> >> for my
> >> >> >> next
> >> >> >> car... and currently doing intensive research on how to make my
> >> new
> >> >> >> house
> >> >> >> (yet to be built) use as little non-renewable energy as
> >> possible...
> >> >> >> quite
> >> >> >> an
> >> >> >> interesting exploration for me... refreshing information that I
> >> >> hadn't
> >> >> >> read
> >> >> >> too much about since I subscribed to Mother Earth News in the
> >> >> >> 70's.  Heating
> >> >> >> shouldn't be a problem but dealing with the hot, humid summers
> >> >> will be
> >> >> >> challenging.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Its hard to balance the economics on electricity usage in this
> >> area
> >> >> >> (S.E.
> >> >> >> VA) since it is so very low... 6 cents a KW if I remember
> >> correctly;
> >> >> >> however
> >> >> >> I feel strongly about it and will do whatever I can... luckily I
> >> work
> >> >> >> out
> >> >> >> of
> >> >> >> my home and the new house will be so close to a lot of services
> >> >> that I
> >> >> >> should be able to ride the bike a lot of places.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Saroj
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> >> >> From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> >> >> >> To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> >> >> >> Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 11:54 AM
> >> >> >> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Saroj,
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Maybe, I don't agree with all the premises of the article but
> >> >> everything
> >> >> >> does line up for a fall, just not as far as the author suggested.
> >> >> The
> >> >> >> unfortunate repercussion is that it will encourage us to go back
> >> >> to our
> >> >> >> foolish ways.  Peak Oil is coming!  The folks who have the most
> >> >> oil are
> >> >> >> still the same folks who hate us the most.  The two fastest
> >> >> growing oil
> >> >> >> consuming nations, China and India, aren't slowing down. China
> >> >> doesn't
> >> >> >> give
> >> >> >> a shit about anything but China, and they're cutting deals
> >> everywhere
> >> >> >> for
> >> >> >> every commodity.  I can't make my jet or our equipment burn less
> >> >> >> fuel, but
> >> >> >> my next car *will *get 50mpg+.  Hopefully it won't smell like
> >> shrimp.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Brad
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> On 9/15/06, Saroj Gilbert <saroj at pathfind.net> wrote:
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > That would be good news...
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > ----- Original Message -----
> >> >> >> > From: "Brad Haslett" <flybrad at gmail.com>
> >> >> >> > To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> >> >> >> > Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 9:23 AM
> >> >> >> > Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Good News - Gas Prices Falling
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/home/>
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Thursday, September 14, 2006 - 12:00 AM
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > *.*
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > **
> >> >> >> > *
> >> >> >> > **Analyst predicts plunge in gas prices*
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > *By Kevin G. Hall*
> >> >> >> > *McClatchy Newspapers*
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > WASHINGTON — The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude
> >> oil
> >> >> >> could
> >> >> >> > mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline
> >> >> prices to
> >> >> >> lows
> >> >> >> > not seen since the late 1990s — perhaps as low as $1.15 a
> >> gallon.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > "All the hurricane flags are flying" in oil markets, said
> Philip
> >> >> >> Verleger,
> >> >> >> > a
> >> >> >> > noted energy consultant who was a lone voice several years
> >> ago in
> >> >> >> warning
> >> >> >> > that oil prices would soar. Now, he says, they appear to be
> >> poised
> >> >> >> for a
> >> >> >> > dramatic plunge.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Crude-oil prices have fallen about $14, or roughly 17 percent,
> >> from
> >> >> >> their
> >> >> >> > July 14 peak of $78.40. After falling seven straight days, they
> >> >> rose
> >> >> >> > slightly Wednesday in trading on the New York Mercantile
> >> >> Exchange, to
> >> >> >> > $63.97, partly in reaction to a government report showing fuel
> >> >> >> inventories
> >> >> >> > a
> >> >> >> > bit lower than expected. But the overall price drop is
> >> expected to
> >> >> >> > continue,
> >> >> >> > and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Here's why:
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because
> >> the
> >> >> >> world's
> >> >> >> > oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand,
> >> >> >> > particularly
> >> >> >> > from China and India. Spare oil-production capacity grew so
> >> tight
> >> >> that
> >> >> >> > market players feared that any disruption to oil production
> >> could
> >> >> >> create
> >> >> >> > shortages.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria, escalating
> >> >> tensions
> >> >> >> > over
> >> >> >> > Iran's nuclear program, violence between Israel and Lebanon
> that
> >> >> might
> >> >> >> > spread to oil-producing neighbors, and the prospect that
> >> hurricanes
> >> >> >> might
> >> >> >> > topple oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Oil traders bet that such worrisome developments would drive up
> >> the
> >> >> >> future
> >> >> >> > price of oil. Oil is traded in contracts for future delivery,
> >> and
> >> >> >> > companies
> >> >> >> > that take physical delivery of oil are just a small part of
> >> total
> >> >> >> trading.
> >> >> >> > Large pension and commodities funds are the big traders and
> >> they're
> >> >> >> > seeking
> >> >> >> > profits. They've sunk $105 billion or more into oil futures in
> >> >> recent
> >> >> >> > years,
> >> >> >> > according to Verleger. Their bets that oil prices would rise in
> >> the
> >> >> >> future
> >> >> >> > bid up the price of oil.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > That, in turn, led users of oil to create stockpiles as
> cushions
> >> >> >> against
> >> >> >> > supply disruptions and even higher future prices. Now
> >> inventories
> >> >> >> of oil
> >> >> >> > are
> >> >> >> > approaching 1990 levels.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil
> >> >> >> prices are
> >> >> >> > ebbing. Tensions over Israel, Lebanon and Nigeria are easing.
> >> The
> >> >> >> > hurricane
> >> >> >> > season has presented no threat so far to the Gulf of Mexico.
> The
> >> >> U.S.
> >> >> >> peak
> >> >> >> > summer driving season is over, so gasoline demand is falling.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began
> >> sliding.
> >> >> With
> >> >> >> oil
> >> >> >> > inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are
> >> expected
> >> >> to
> >> >> >> cut
> >> >> >> > production. As refiners cut production, oil companies
> >> increasingly
> >> >> >> risk
> >> >> >> > getting stuck with excess oil supplies. There's already
> >> anecdotal
> >> >> >> evidence
> >> >> >> > of oil companies chartering tankers to store excess oil.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > All this is turning financial markets increasingly bearish on
> >> oil.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > "If we continue to build inventories, and if we have a warm
> >> winter
> >> >> >> like
> >> >> >> we
> >> >> >> > had last winter, you could see a large fall in the price of
> >> oil,"
> >> >> said
> >> >> >> > Gary
> >> >> >> > Pokoik, who manages Hedge Ventures Energy in Los Angeles, an
> >> energy
> >> >> >> hedge
> >> >> >> > fund. "I think there is still a lot of risk in the market."
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > As it stands now, the recent oil-price slump has brought the
> >> >> national
> >> >> >> > average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline down to $2.59,
> >> >> according to
> >> >> >> the
> >> >> >> > AAA motor club. In the Seattle area, prices per gallon have
> >> >> fallen to
> >> >> >> > $2.856
> >> >> >> > currently from $3.071 a month ago, a decline of 7 percent,
> >> >> >> according to
> >> >> >> > AAA.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will
> get
> >> >> worse
> >> >> >> and
> >> >> >> > run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts,
> >> Verleger
> >> >> >> said,
> >> >> >> > it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or
> >> less a
> >> >> >> barrel,
> >> >> >> > at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as
> >> >> $1.15
> >> >> >> per
> >> >> >> > gallon.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Other experts won't guess at a floor price, but they agree
> >> that a
> >> >> race
> >> >> >> to
> >> >> >> > the bottom could break out.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > "The market may test levels here that are too low to be
> >> sustained,"
> >> >> >> said
> >> >> >> > Clay Seigle, an analyst at Cambridge Energy Research
> >> Associates, a
> >> >> >> > consultancy in Boston.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > On Monday, the oil-producing cartel OPEC hinted that if prices
> >> fall
> >> >> >> > precipitously, OPEC members would cut production to lift
> >> them. But
> >> >> >> that
> >> >> >> > would take time.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > "That takes six to nine months. If we don't have a really cold
> >> >> winter
> >> >> >> here
> >> >> >> > [creating a demand for oil], prices will fall. Literally, you
> >> don't
> >> >> >> know
> >> >> >> > where the floor is," Verleger said. "In a market like this, if
> >> >> things
> >> >> >> > start
> >> >> >> > falling ... prices could take you back to the 1999 levels. It
> >> has
> >> >> >> nothing
> >> >> >> > to
> >> >> >> > do with production."
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > <http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/news/general/copyright.html>
> >> >> >> > __________________________________________________
> >> >> >> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > __________________________________________________
> >> >> >> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> __________________________________________________
> >> >> >> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> __________________________________________________
> >> >> >> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> >>
> >> >> > __________________________________________________
> >> >> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> > __________________________________________________
> >> >> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >> >
> >> >> __________________________________________________
> >> >> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >>
> >> > __________________________________________________
> >> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >> >
> >> __________________________________________________
> >> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >>
> > __________________________________________________
> > Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
> >
> __________________________________________________
> Use Rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org, Help? www.rhodes22.org/list
>